Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua: A lock for the British great?
This is a controversial fight and many in the boxing scene believe ex-YouTuber-turned-pro Jake Paul is at serious risk of doing himself damage.
Ex-heavyweight champion Lennox Lewis described it as ‘unthinkable’ that Paul could win, while respected trainer Joe Gallagher is worried about Paul’s health.
Meanwhile Team GB’s Olympics boxing coach – and former world champion – Richie Woodhall describes Joshua as the hardest puncher he’s ever seen,
There is a healthy dose of anxiety and expectation coursing through the sport. All of the pressure is on Anthony Joshua to end it early, but could Paul produce the biggest upset the sport has ever seen?
We’ve earmarked a few tips to consider for the occasion…
When is Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua & where to watch
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami Dates & times: Saturday 20th December, approx 03:30 GMT How to watch: Live on Netflix
Tip 1 – Anthony Joshua to win in Round 1 @ 29/10
“I've never gone in there and knocked someone out within 10 seconds,” AJ said in the build-up to this one. “There's a methodical process to knocking someone out. But if the opportunity presents itself, I'm not planning on carrying Jake for one second more than I have to.”
Those words from Joshua should send chills down the spines of the Paul camp.
We are talking about a boxer who made his name as a knockout artist throughout his career, with 25 of his 28 wins coming by way of stoppage.
Francis Ngannou, a world-renowned UFC fighter, didn’t last past the second round in 2024. Paul is significantly smaller and less experienced than the Cameroonian, who admittedly fought in a different sport.
In his first 14 fights, Joshua ended the bout within three rounds, including five first-round victories. This could be reminiscent of those early days.
Assuming the fight is approached in a serious manner, an opening salvo stoppage here looks too tempting at odds of 29/10.
Tip 2 – Fight to start Round 3 - NO @ 8/5
A safer bet that remains above Evens is to back the fight to be over within two rounds.
It covers an early knockout but also, if needed, a freak punch that catches Joshua out early.
In his last fight in the US, the British fighter was caught by an Andy Ruiz Jr blow to the temple.
It completely discombobulated him and the fight finished in that round. One accusation consistently levelled at Joshua is he has something of a glass jaw and struggles to respond well if caught.
The only route to a Paul victory is a similar glancing blow to Joshua’s head.
That eventuality was covered with this selection – as well as the more likely scenario that Joshua toys with Paul in round one before finishing the job in the second.
Tip 3 – Over 1.5 knockdowns @ 4/5
Anthony Joshua has managed to score 10 knockdowns in his last seven wins. All of them against bigger and more experienced fighters than Paul.
The British heavyweight is also under a weight of expectation to finish this fight early and get the win. He will be aggressive and on the front foot.
He is a 1/10 favourite to win the fight. The great and the good of boxing largely want him to end the Jake Paul project. There is an expectation he will do it in style.
While not always a concrete deliverer of expectations, with 25 stoppages in 28 wins he should have far too much in the tank for Paul here whether it’s in seconds or in minutes.
This fight will end early and it will be Joshua who takes the spoils. Backing over 1.5 knockdowns in the bout at close to even money looks like a good thing.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation