Adrian Curiel Vs Sivenathi Nontshinga tips
The IBF world light-flyweight belt is on the line when Adrian Curiel defends his title in a rematch against Sivenathi Nontshinga.
Curiel will have a home Mexican crowd on side in Oaxaca and it’s a rematch that carries plenty of intrigue.
Gatito scored a stunning second-round one-punch knockout of South Africa’s defending champion Nontshinga in November, and while that was a shocking stoppage success, Curiel will be keen to show that victory wasn’t a one-off.
Nontshinga suffered the first defeat of his career in Monaco, but the South African will be keen to win back the belt he lost in November.
Tip 1: Nontshinga to beat Curiel @ 6/4
Nontshinga won the IBF world light-flyweight title in just his 11th professional contest.
The Special One secured the vacant title in a brutal twelve-round battle against Hector Flores in 2022 and that was without doubt a contender for fight of the year.
Nontshinga made a successful first defence of that 108lbs title against the then unbeaten Regie Suganob last year and already talk of unification bouts was the order of the day.
It was expected that November’s contest against Curiel would just be a stepping stone to more world title challenges, but the Monaco contest certainly didn’t play out like that.
The Mexican caught the Special One with a huge overhand right that ended the bout immediately in the second round.
That was a huge shock, because not only had Gatito looked thoroughly exposed having already lost four times in his career, but the 25-year-old had recorded only four knockout victories from 23 professional victories.
The Mexican had previously been beaten by Daniel Valladares, Sergio Mejia, Joselito Velazquez and Cristian Gonzalez Hernandez, but Curiel took his career to a new peak with that stunning Monaco victory.
At the age of 25, it’s certainly possible that we are just now seeing the best of the Mexico City man and there is also a chance that there could be more to come.
That makes the rematch a fascinating betting heat and the prices are key to any punting interest.
Curiel is the 13/25 favourite, with Nontshinga a 6/4 underdog and the South African looks the play at those prices.
It’s easy to think that Curiel can just land another big punch and repeat November’s victory, but Nontshinga had been whacked with a whole host of heavy hits in the war with Flores and there was no indication that the South African was vulnerable to power.
The Special One is only 25 and has just 13 fights on his card, so there is no reason to think miles on the clock or advancing years have weakened the punch resistance of the Eastern Cape fighter.
It’s also worth noting that prior to the stoppage in the first fight between the pair, Nontshinga had been making all the running, landing the bulk of the punches and Curiel had barely laid a glove on the Special One, before finding a way to end the fight.
Clearly, there are questions for Nontshinga, but at the prices, the South African looks a good bet to find the answers.
Tip 2: Nontshinga to win by decision @ 16/5
While there are plenty of questions surrounding the rematch there are some things that look almost set in stone.
Curiel had never beaten a fighter at the level of Nontshinga prior to the first bout, and while there were four losses on the Mexican’s card, he has also never been stopped.
Nontshinga has nine stoppage victories on his card, but his last three wins have all come by decision and that has coincided with the South African stepping up in class.
If the Eastern Cape fighter does turn the tables in the rematch it’s likely to come via a decision from the judges.
