Natasha Jonas vs. Mikaela Mayer Insight and Tips
Natasha Jonas has a hometown fight this weekend as she takes on American Mikaela Mayer at the M&S Bank Arena in Liverpool on Saturday.
Jonas is defending her IBF welterweight title for the first time after an emphatic victory over Kandi Wyatt in July.
That victory saw Jonas become a two-weight world champion after she had reigned supreme at super welterweight, but she faces a stern test against Mayer, who is the interim WBC lightweight champion and has held titles at super featherweight.
Jonas is the favourite to win at 7/10, Mayer can be backed at 59/50 and a draw is on offer at 12/1.
Jonas holds the advantages
Mayer is a quality operator who holds an impressive 19-1 record, with her one defeat coming via a split decision in a unification showdown with a pound-for-pound great in the shape of Alycia Baumgardner.
In terms of technical ability, the American is probably better than Jonas, but that may not be enough for her to pull off what would be a minor upset here.
Jonas will benefit from the support of a partisan home crowd, but she has a clear size advantage as well, and that is likely to be the main difference.
The southpaw has campaigned at super welterweight previously, while Mayer is making the step up from lightweight here and may struggle to cope with Jonas’ power over the course of this 10-round affair.
Tip 1 - Natasha Jonas to win at 7/10
Jonas does have two defeats on her record, but one of those losses came against superstar Katie Taylor, who was in her prime when the pair met, and since that loss to the Irish fighter she has picked up five successive wins.
The 39-year-old has excellent movement and is an intelligent fighter, and she is also capable of finishing bouts strongly if they do reach the latter rounds.
Mayer also has an impressive engine and has never been stopped, while she also likes to set the pace and work behind her exceptional jab, but that may work against her when faced with a counterpunching southpaw such as Jonas.
Tip 2 - Natasha Jonas to win by KO, TKO or DQ at 11/1
Mayer has never been stopped and has been in the ring with some great talents previously, so a Jonas win on points does look the more likely outcome, but the value is clearly with a stoppage and there is a strong chance of a late win inside the distance for the Briton.
Nine of Jonas’ 14 wins have come via stoppages and she comes into the bout after a TKO win in her last fight, stopping Wyatt in the eighth round after a devastating series of shots convinced the referee to call an early finish.
Jonas is the more natural fighter of the two at this weight and she didn’t have any issues coming down to welterweight to claim the IBF strap. In contrast, it remains to be seen how Mayer will cope with the step up and she may struggle to cope with Jonas’ power, so taking a chance on the defending champion to claim an early finish at a big price appeals.
Tip 3 - Natasha Jonas to win in rounds 9-10 at 28/1
Following on from the above, anyone who is tempted to back Jonas to win via KO, TKO or DQ may consider some round bets and the 28/1 on offer for a stoppage in the last two rounds looks the best option.
Mayer has never been stopped and has a 5-1 record in world title fights - so if she does lose, she won’t go down easily. The American is the sort of fighter who will throw caution to the wind and go on the attack in the later rounds if it is clear she is behind on the scorecards.
Jonas has proven to be a strong finisher over the course of her career and is at her most dangerous when fighting on the counter, so she may be able to take advantage if Mayer does take a few risks in the late stages of what could be a thrilling contest. As such, a small stake on a victory in the final two rounds for the defending champion could prove a shrewd bet.