EFL PLAY-OFFS TIPS: EXPECT GOALS APLENTY ON ROAD TO WEMBLEY
The best way to be promoted… the English Football League Play-offs are back.
Sunderland, Charlton and AFC Wimbledon did it last season and three more teams will look to make history under the Wembley arch this time around.
Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Hull will do battle in the Championship, with the Lions eager for a first trip ever to the Premier League.
In League One, Stockport are eyeing up the Championship after penalty heartbreak in last year's semi-final. They are joined by Bradford, Bolton and Stevenage.
There’s no shortage of drama in League Two either with Salford looking to reach the third tier for the first time while Grimsby, Chesterfield and Notts County join them in the play-off lottery.
We’ve picked out three of the best bets as the drama begins…
Tip 1 – Millwall & Middlesbrough to make the Championship Play-off final @ 37/20
The drama of the Championship play-offs is back and all four clubs attempt to do a Sunderland and reach the promised land.
Millwall agonisingly missed out on automatic promotion to Ipswich but enter the play-off lottery having enjoyed a fine season under Alex Neil.
Hull dramatically leafrogged Wrexham on the last day but face a real test to reach Wembley against the Lions.
Both sides won at each other’s grounds 3-1 in the regular season but the form right now is with the south Londoners despite the last-day drama for the Tigers.
Millwall lost just two of their last 13 matches, whereas Hull won just one of their last seven. In Neil, they have a play-off specialist: three play-off campaigns in England and Scotland have resulted in three promotions.
They also have two of Sunderland’s play-off heroes from last season on loan at the Den in Tommy Watson and Anthony Patterson and we’re backing them to take a step closer to a first-ever Premier League appearance.
We think they’ll be joined by Middlesbrough.
Kim Hellberg’s side looked set for a top-two finish but a late-season blip saw them finish fifth – three games unbeaten at the end of the season, though, sees them seemingly on the way back up.
Southampton even being in the play-offs is quite the story. The Saints were 15th in January but a 19-game unbeaten run saw them end up just four points behind promoted Ipswich.
Two draws at the end were costly and despite their stunning form, Boro could do a job on them.
The sides were separated by just one goal and the Teessiders were unbeaten in both games against Southampton during the season.
A repeat of the 4-0 win at the Riverside seems highly unlikely but, if they play as they showed they can for much of the campaign, they may well take a lead to the south coast that will be difficult to overhaul.
Only Ipswich and Coventry scored more goals than Boro this season, while only Coventry conceded fewer than their 47.
A 37/20 double for Millwall and Middlesbrough to reach the final seems like a sensible shout in a format where anything can happen.
Tip 2 – BTTS in Stevenage vs Stockport & Bolton vs Bradford @ 21/10
All four of the League One play-off participants were separated by just two points – Stockport in third on 77 with Stevenage sneaking into sixth with 75.
As such, these ties really feel like they could go either way.
The Hatters travel to Stevenage on Saturday afternoon having lost both matches to the Boro this season while the home side have lost just two matches here this season to boot.
Saturday night sees Bradford make the short trip to Bolton to face the Trotters, who were notoriously hard to beat this term.
Steven Schumacher’s men lost just nine times in the league and twice at home, so it will be a tough test for the Bantams come 8pm on Saturday.
Staying in the tie may well be the aim for both away teams and we’re backing goals in both matches with stakes so high.
Odds of 21/10 for both teams to score in both League One first legs stands out.
Stockport haven’t failed to score on the road since January, while four of Stevenage’s last five games saw both sides find the net.
In the other tie, all of both Bradford and Bolton’s last four matches had goals for both teams and this happening again may set up some very tasty return legs.
Tip 3 – Oli McBurnie to score & be carded vs Millwall @ 15/1
Goalscorers can be heroes in the play-offs.
Oli McBurnie was just that for Hull City – and this was just to get them there.
His winning goal against Norwich took him to 18 in total for the season and the Tigers will be looking to their talisman for inspiration ahead of a tough semi-final.
He scored in the 3-1 win at the Den earlier this season and will be relishing the prospect of doing so again.
The former Sheffield United man got four in his last five Championship matches and a 19th of the season could be on the cards here.
Speaking of cards, McBurnie has nine yellows to his name in all competitions.
His penchant for finding his way into the referee's notebook may well be on the agenda once more here in a match with so much at stake.
Whether in celebration or frustration, we like the look of combining a yellow card with a goal for the Scotsman.
It’s 15/1 for that to happen as the Championship play-offs get underway.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
