EUROPA LEAGUE LAST 16 TIPS: VILLA VICTORY & A 15/1 FOREST SHOUT
Big tests are on the cards for the British sides as the Europa League enters the last 16 phase.
Nottingham Forest welcome FC Midtjylland to the City Ground, a side they have already lost to in the league phase, while an out-of-sorts Aston Villa are at Lille.
Other big games are on the agenda, too, including an all-Italian clash between Bologna and Roma and 2011 winners Porto facing Stuttgart.
We’ve explored the fixture list and have compiled our three best bets for the Europa League last 16…
Tip 1 – Aston Villa to beat Lille @ 7/5
Villa have lost their way somewhat.
A few weeks back there was talk of a sensational title challenge and a run in the FA Cup to go alongside their Europa League campaign.
A poor run of form has seen them slip to fourth in the Premier League while their FA Cup campaign ended at the hands of Newcastle.
This competition, then, is their chance of silverware.
Villa were strong in the league phase, losing once and only kept off the top by goal difference. They also conceded just six goals in their eight games.
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Lille finished 16th and, though they came through their play-off with Red Star Belgrade, they lost the home leg 1-0.
We can see a similar result here. For all their recent struggles, Villa won away at Fenerbahce, Basel and Feyenoord in the league phase while Lille have won just one of their last five Ligue 1 matches.
It will be a tight affair but Unai Emery would be delighted to bring a lead back to Villa Park for the return leg – and they may well get it.
Odds of 7/5 for Villa win carry strong appeal as a result.
Tip 2 – Igor Jesus to score & be carded vs Midtjylland @ 15/1
Forest came through a very tough play-off with Fenerbahce, though made harder work of it than they would have liked having been 3-0 up after the first leg.
Their reward? A tie with Midtjylland, a side they have already faced and lost to in this Europa League campaign.
Ange Postecoglou was in the Forest dugout for that one while Vitor Pereira is the man to take charge of this clash with the Danes. Midtjylland were strong in the league phase, finishing third and losing only once, away to Roma.
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Their 3-2 win at the City Ground in October was impressive but Forest will be hoping to put that right here as a distraction from their Premier League relegation battle.
No one has scored more goals in the Europa League so far than Tricky Trees striker Igor Jesus. He has seven in only five starts – a stark contrast to his two Premier League goals in 28 appearances.
The Brazilian also has four yellow cards to his name in this competition and the price for him to find the back of the net and also work his way into the referee's notebook is worth a speculative punt.
It’s 15/1 for that to happen as Forest strive to take a lead to Denmark for what will be a very tough second leg.
Tip 3 – Freiburg to beat Genk & BTTS no @ 7/2
Genk saw off Dinamo Zagreb in the play-offs… but only just.
After a 3-1 win in the away leg, the Belgians needed extra time to get over the line.
Their record in the Jupiler Pro League is astonishing. They have almost identical home and away records, the only difference being that they have conceded 22 goals on the road compared to 20 at home.
That means they have just five home wins and they won just two of their four league phase matches, too; one of those came against winless, 35th-placed Malmo.
They take on Freiburg here, a side that lost just once in the league phase and had the best defence with four goals conceded in eight games.
With that in mind, we aren’t expecting a goalfest despite Genk’s 6-4 aggregate play-off success.
Just 21 goals were scored between them in the league phase so a goal either way could nick the first leg here.
Genk drew two blanks at home in the league phase and Freiburg’s solid defence can secure a fifth shutout of the competition here and help the 7/2 for an away win to-nil land.
Fancy all our Europa League shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 160/1 Acca. Add it to your betslip by clicking here
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
