EUROPA LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL TIPS: SET-PIECES THE VALUE ANGLE?
The Europa League has reached the last eight stage and there are two British interests, and former European champions at that, still in with a shout of silverware.
Aston Villa saw off Lille in the round of 16 to set up a quarter-final showdown with Bologna – they travel to Italy for a tricky first leg.
Nottingham Forest are putting domestic struggles behind them in Europe and are up against Portuguese giants Porto and, like Villa, have their first leg away from home.
Could we be in for an all-English semi-final?
Elsewhere, Braga face Real Betis and Freiburg take on Celta Vigo in what promises to be a pulsating round of first-leg action.
We’ve looked at the four ties and picked out our best shouts for the Europa League quarter-finals…
Tip 1 – William Gomes to score & Morgan Gibbs-White 1+ shot on target in Porto vs Nott’m Forest @ 9/1
This is a tough one for Forest.
A trip to Porto may well be all about staying in the tie considering their opponents have lost just once at the Estadio de Dragao this season – to Vitoria de Guimaraes in the Taca da Liga.
These two have met already in the Europa League this season, a 2-0 win for Forest at the City Ground under then-manager Sean Dyche. Fans will be hopeful of a repeat of that next week, provided they can come away without a heavy defeat here.
Morgan Gibbs-White scored one of two penalties in that game and has been inspirational for Vitor Pereira’s men of late.
He scored in the vital 3-0 win at Spurs and has 23 shots on target in the Premier League so far. He surely will be looking to test Porto's keeper here.
Only four teams have beaten Porto this season in any competition and Forest are one of them.
Doing so in Portugal will be extremely difficult and the Tricky Trees will have to be very wary of William Gomes. The Brazilian has 12 goals overall this season, including three in five starts in the Europa League.
The 20-year-old scored the opener in the second-leg victory over Stuttgart in the last 16 and combining him to find the back of the net here with Gibbs-White to have that shot on target throws up an attractive 9/1.
Tip 2 – Aston Villa to beat Bologna @ 13/10
Like Forest and Porto, this is the second meeting of this pair in this season's competition.
Villa saw off Bologna 1-0 at Villa Park back in September to get their campaign off to a solid start, in a game that proved to be the visitors’ only defeat in the league phase.
The Villans have won all but one match in the competition since and will fancy their chances of bringing home a win back to the West Midlands for next week’s return leg.
Only goal difference prevented Unai Emery’s men from topping the league phase table and, while Bologna lost just once, they also won only one of their four home games.
Add to this the fact that Bologna have lost eight of their last 10 Serie A games at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara and Villa will be hoping to seize an opportunity.
It’s 13/10 for an away win here to put Villa in a very strong position in the tie – though Bologna are stronger away from home than at it with four consecutive league wins on the road and an extra-time success at Roma in the Europa League last 16.
That said, if Villa do bring the win back from Italy, it will certainly take them one step closer to another European trophy for Emery and a first major honour for the 1982 European Cup winners for 20 years.
Tip 3 – Over 9.5 corners in Porto vs Nott’m Forest & Bologna vs Aston Villa @ 23/10
Set-pieces have been key in the Europa League this season.
Look no further than Bologna. Their 90 corners taken in 12 matches are 12 more than any other team and an average of over seven per match.
Between themselves and opponents Aston Villa they have taken almost 140 corner kicks so far, making the over 9.5 threshold for their first-leg tie more than surpassable – the home side may well try to do it on their own.
While Bologna are clear, Nottingham Forest are set-piece heavy too.
Their 72 taken in 12 games is the fourth-highest of all teams and their opponents, Porto, sit sixth with 55 in 10 games.
Again, over 9.5 corners to be taken in this one looks a sensible shout given the Tricky Trees also average over five per game in the Premier League too.
Backing the 23/10 for both of those games to have at least 10 corners stacks appeal.
Fancy all our Europa League shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 60/1 Acca. Add it to your betslip by clicking here
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
