EUROPA LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL SECOND LEG TIPS: VILLA & FOREST SHOWDOWN ON CARDS?
The Europa League quarter-final second legs are here and we have a real chance of an all-English semi-final clash.
Aston Villa are in a commanding position – their 3-1 win in Bologna has given the Italians an uphill battle of reaching the last four.
Nottingham Forest are well in it too. A draw away at Porto is no mean feat and a home tie at the City Ground will have them believing a semi-final against Villa is a real possibility.
On the other side of the draw, the tie between SC Braga and Real Betis is delicately poised at 1-1 while Freiburg hold a 3-0 advantage over Celta Vigo and have one foot in the next round.
We’ve looked at the four ties and picked out our best shouts for the Europa League quarter-final second legs…
Tip 1 – Nott’m Forest to go through vs Porto & Murillo to be carded @ 23/4
You could argue Forest have done the hardest part – stayed in the tie.
They got their luck in Porto with the own goal but they made the most of it and a 1-1 draw is more than most have managed at the Estadio do Dragao this season.
Back at the City Ground, with a raucous crowd behind them, a famous European night could be in store for the Tricky Trees… and they have more than a chance.
They’ve beaten Porto here already this season in the league phase, two penalties giving them a 2-0 win and inflicting the Portuguese side’s only loss in the competition so far.
Concerningly for Forest, they lost the home leg of their previous two knockout rounds but, conversely, Porto have won only twice away from home in the competition so far.
Big players will be key and the likes of Murillo’s performance could be make or break.
The Brazilian defender has shown how important he can be but must keep a lid on his discipline.
The 23-year-old has six yellow cards this season including two in the Europa League – only Elliot Anderson, a fitness doubt, and Murato have more for Forest.
The intimidating atmosphere could add to the tense nature of the game and for a player with 13 fouls in the competition so far as a central defender, that could well play a part in him finding his name in the notebook again.
We like the look of the 23/4 for Forest to progress and Murillo to be booked in 90 minutes.
Tip 2 – Aston Villa to be leading at half-time vs Bologna @ 11/10
A convincing win in Italy has Villa big favourites – 1/50 in fact – to progress.
The 3-1 win was impressive and, while the home leg isn’t a formality, an early goal will surely put the tie beyond the reach of the visitors.
After a brief flirtation with a Premier League title challenge, since their FA Cup exit to Newcastle the Europa League always looks to have taken precedence for Unai Emery’s men.
They have not only lost just once in the competition, they have won every other game bar that defeat to Go Ahead Eagles. That’s 10 out of 11 games and with just seven goals conceded in the process.
Out of their five home games so far they have been leading at half-time in three, including the league phase game against Bologna, and won all five.
A fast start will put to bed any lingering nerves of a Bologna comeback. The Italians do have a good record away from home – the defeat at Villa Park is their only one in the competition so far.
Emery will be keen to put the tie beyond reach, though, and the Villans more than have the capability to do it.
The 11/10 for Villa to be leading at half-time represents very good value indeed.
Tip 3 – Bologna over 4.5 corners vs Aston Villa & Nott’m Forest over 5.5 corners vs Porto @ 14/5
Set-pieces have been a huge part of both of these sides’ campaigns.
No one has taken more corner kicks than Bologna’s 94 in 13 games, an average of over seven per match.
Set-pieces may well be key if they are to have any chance of overturning the deficit against Aston Villa – and the over 4.5 threshold is more than achievable given their general corner prowess.
Forest, too, often look to take advantage of a corner kick.
Their 74 taken is the fourth-highest and, at home to Porto, they may well see this as a route to gaining an advantage over their Portuguese opponents.
When it comes to attacks, Forest’s 520 and Bologna’s 479 are the top two in the competition while the Tricky Trees have also scored the most goals with 22.
Bologna to take over 4.5 corners at Villa and Forest to take over 5.5 as they host Porto is a more than acceptable 15/4 chance.
This season has seen the set-piece come back into fashion and it could fashion a route into the last four for Forest in particular.
_Fancy all our Europa League shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 50/1 Acca. Add it to your betslip by clicking here
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
