EUROPA LEAGUE SEMI-FINAL FIRST LEG TIPS: BACK FEISTY ALL-ENGLISH AFFAIR
An all-English battle takes centre stage in the Europa League semi-finals as East meets West Midlands with a European final on the line.
Just over two weeks after their last Premier League clash, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa face off again at the City Ground while the other semi-final sees a compelling tussle in Portugal as SC Braga host SC Freiburg.
Braga, fresh from eliminating Real Betis, face a German side that comfortably dispatched Celta Vigo to secure their place in the last four.
We’ve run the rule over the two ties and picked out our best bets for the occasion…
Tip 1 – Elliot Anderson & Matty Cash to be carded in Nott’m Forest vs Aston Villa @ 21/2
Forest and Villa know each other well.
They’ve met twice this season in the Premier League, with the second meeting at the City ground ending 1-1 earlier this month.
Those two meetings have produced seven yellow cards and, with stakes high on the banks of the Trent on Thursday evening and the atmosphere rocking, that trend could well continue.
Elliot Anderson and Matty Cash are no strangers to the referee’s notebook.
Both top their club charts for bookings in all competitions so far this season – nine alongside a red for Anderson and 11 for Cash. They have five between them in the Europa League, too.
Cash was carded in the recent Premier League meeting while Anderson was one of five Forest players booked in last Friday’s win at Sunderland.
Referee Joao Pinheiro is not shy of handing out cards either. He showed nine yellows and a red when officiating the Conference League match between Strasbourg and Mainz two weeks ago, so leniency may well not be on the menu here.
Odds of 21/2 for both Anderson and Cash to be carded in this one looks well priced as both sides go in eager not to give anything away ahead of the return leg.
Tip 2 – Nott’m Forest vs Aston Villa over 2.5 goals
The meeting of two former European champions is a huge one for both clubs.
Neither Forest nor Villa have won a major trophy in the last 30 years – the 1990 League Cup for Forest and the 1996 League Cup for Villa being their most recent silverware.
Despite Forest’s lowly Premier League position they have been impressive in European competition this season – as have Villa.
In fact, the two clubs top the Europa League scoring charts.
Unai Emery’s men lead the way with 24 goals in their 12 matches while the Tricky Trees are second with 23, albeit having played two games more.
Four of their last five meetings have featured over 2.5 goals while both teams have found the net in all of those.
Both of the Villans’ quarter-final matches had at least three goals while three of Forest’s four recent Premier League games have hit that mark too.
The 19/20 for over 2.5 goals here stands out as excellent value – with Ollie Watkins and Igor Jesus both firing recently, we could be in for a cracker.
Tip 3 – SC Braga to beat Freiburg @ 11/8
This one is an interesting tie.
Both Braga and Freiburg had convincing second-leg victories in the last eight to send them through… and it may well be a close-run thing over two matches here.
Braga will feel they need to take a lead to Germany for the reverse fixture and we’re narrowly backing them to get it.
They have lost just once so far at home in the Europa League, a 4-3 loss to Genk back in November, while for all Freiburg’s dominant performance at Celta Vigo the 3-1 second-leg win was only their second away win in the competition.
Domestically, too, away form has been an issue. Eight of Freiburg’s 10 Bundesliga losses have come on the road so remaining in the tie here may well be the ultimate aim for the Germans.
Braga have been strong at home with just three defeats in the Primeira Liga on their own turf and only leaders Porto have beaten them at the Estadio Municipal in the league since September.
A convincing 4-0 win over Ferencvaros in the last 16 helped them overturn a two-goal deficit but they will be keen to avoid having to do similar in Germany next week.
Odds of 11/8 seem generous for a side who are hard to beat at home and Freiburg may well be coming from behind next week if they want to progress.
Fancy all our Europa League shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 45/1 Acca. Add it to your betslip by clicking here
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
