2025-05-16

MAN CITY VS CRYSTAL PALACE: 22/1 FA CUP FINAL OPTA BET BUILDER & STAT PACK

The 2025 FA Cup final is upon us, with two teams experiencing very different seasons preparing to face off in the Wembley sunshine.

While Manchester City's Premier League title defence fell off a cliff, Pep Guardiola's side could still salvage silverware and give club legend Kevin De Bruyne a winning send-off.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have never won a major trophy so Oliver Glasner is hoping to make history.

Ahead of Saturday's game, we dive into the best Opta data to highlight a few selections that could make for a successful FA Cup Bet Builder.

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City have played in seven domestic cup finals under Guardiola and lost only one – last year's FA Cup showpiece against rivals Manchester United.

Guardiola has won the FA Cup twice (2019, 2023) and the League Cup four times (2018-21), meaning he could become only the second manager to win both English cups at least three times after Sir Alex Ferguson.

Given that, City’s solid form coming into this final, it is worth pointing out the justified favouritism that they have in the result-based markets. They are 8/11 for victory inside 90 minutes and 7/20 to lift the trophy.

The Opta supercomputer, meanwhile, gives City a 52.5% chance of getting the job done in regulation time. But for the value hunters, that does mean the prediction model gives a 47.5% of Palace claiming a first major honour.

City's 2-0 semi-final win over Nottingham Forest was their 20th outing at Wembley under Guardiola but they have only won 10 of those, having drawn four and lost six.

👆 Higher or Lower x 𝗧𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗵𝗮𝗺 𝗘𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 👇

⚽️ Goals
🅰️ Assists
📋 Appearances

𝙃𝙤𝙬 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙙𝙤 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙠 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙙𝙤? ⚪️#COYS #THFC pic.twitter.com/Zt7K5ab913
— BetMGM UK (@BetMGMUK) May 14, 2025

That makes the 17/5 for Palace to win in 90 minutes – or 21/20 on the double chance market – an appealing proposition with the Eagles winning 13 of 22 matches in all competitions since the turn of the year.

Their 59% win ratio is the fourth-best of any Premier League side in 2025, behind only Newcastle (70%), Aston Villa (64%) and City (62%). Palace are unbeaten in their last five games but three of those have finished level, with each of those draws coming against teams further up the Premier League table.

Although Palace have not beaten City in any of the last seven meetings between the sides, they have drawn three of those matches, with Guardiola repeatedly lamenting the difficulties City have faced in those games.

Since FA Cup final replays were scrapped in 1999, six of the showpiece matches have gone to extra time with three being decided on penalties.

One of those contests settled in 120 minutes was Palace's last FA Cup final appearance, a 2-1 extra-time loss to Man Utd in 2016 and the draw is available at 29/10 for Saturday’s game.

Back goals, goals, goals

Both teams have scored in five of the last nine FA Cup finals, including the last two which both featured City. It could be a similar story on Saturday.

With Omar Marmoush, Phil Foden, Jeremy Doku, De Bruyne and Savinho all competing to start behind Erling Haaland, City have plenty of attacking quality available.

They are averaging 2.02 goals per game in all competitions this season and, while their expected goals (xG) figures are far from their best under Guardiola, an average of 1.99 xG per game still suggests they are creating better-quality chances than in 2020-21 (1.8) and 2017-18 (1.95) – both of which were title-winning campaigns.

So it is at the other end of the pitch where City's problems lie, having lost the midfield protection offered by Rodri, in addition to defensive casualties John Stones and Nathan Ake.

City are averaging more goals conceded (1.3) and expected goals against (1.29 xGA) per game in 2024-25 than in any other season under Guardiola.

Previous Meeting

A price of 7/10 for both teams to score looks solid, as does 3/4 for over 2.5 goals, particularly when one considers Palace's attacking form.

Palace have been shut out just twice in 23 games since Boxing Day – in a 5-0 loss to Newcastle United and a goalless draw with Bournemouth.

The Eagles' impressive total of 57.9 xG in the Premier League this season, meanwhile, ranks seventh in the division.

When Palace's dynamic counter-attacking style meets City's desire to play high up the pitch, entertainment ensues.

Both teams have scored two or more goals in each of the last four meetings between Palace and City, with that run containing two 2-2 draws plus 4-2 and 5-2 victories for the Citizens.

Eze in imperious form

The undoubted star of Palace's run to the final has been Eberechi Eze, who has been involved in four goals in his last four FA Cup appearances with three goals and one assist, scoring a stunning opener in their semi-final thrashing of Aston Villa.

After grabbing a brace in last week's victory at Tottenham Hotspur, Eze has scored in three straight league matches for the first time in his career.

Only Jean-Philippe Mateta – who has 17 goals in all competitions and is 39/20 to score anytime on Saturday – has bettered Eze's tally of 12 goals for Palace this term, while Eze's 12 assists are at least double the amount recorded by any of his team-mates.

Attacking sequence involvements

Ismaila Sarr (13/5 to score or assist) and Eddie Nketiah (14/5 for the same feat) could be worth a glance but, if Palace are to find the net, Eze will likely be involved.

In the Premier League, Eze has been involved in 22 more open-play shot-ending sequences than any other Palace player this season (148).

The midfielder averages 5.6 total shots and chances created per Premier League game this term, a figure only beaten by Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah and Bruno Fernandes among players who have played at least 1,000 minutes.

Eze, who also takes set-pieces, is 3/1 to score anytime, 13/2 to assist and 43/20 if you want to hedge with a goal or assist.

Haaland to have his say

City have not been machine-like this campaign but they possess a few standout candidates for those looking at the player markets. Fit-again striker Haaland is a 13/10 goalscorer pick and looks in great shape to break his Wembley duck.

The Norwegian has not scored in any of his five appearances for City at the national stadium – the most games he has played for them at a specific venue without scoring.

But he comes into this having scored four goals in his last five appearances for club and country and 14 in his last 18.

Halaland shot map

Marmoush, meanwhile, was among the goalscorers when City beat Palace 5-2 at the Etihad last month and is 8/5 to repeat the trick.

De Bruyne is another player worth targeting in his fourth and last FA Cup final appearance for City. He has been involved in four goals in his previous three finals, scoring one and assisting three.

Since his debut in the FA Cup in January 2016, De Bruyne has been involved in more goals in the competition proper than any other player, with 28 (10 goals, 18 assists).

De Bruyne registered a goal and an assist against Palace last month, while also getting on the scoresheet against Wolves two weeks ago.

The City legend is 13/4 to score in 90 minutes and 31/20 to score or assist.

BETMGM’S 22/1 FA CUP FINAL OPTA BET BUILDER