Biggest FA Cup Shocks in History
The FA Cup delivers its fair share of against-the-odds upsets. Yet it’s only in recent years that we’ve seen teams overwhelm the bookies with big victories over top-flight opposition.
Back in the 1970s and ‘80s the FA Cup delivered the same number of shocks as today but the odds were not as generous. When Wimbledon beat Liverpool in the 1988 FA Cup final, for instance, punters got just a 4/1 price on the Crazy Gang shocking the Culture Club.
You can get bigger football odds these days and this year we’re almost certain to see more FA Cup upsets. Whether they stack up against the famous shock results of old, we’ll have to wait and see.
Below are seven of the biggest FA Cup giant killers as determined by sports betting odds and mathematical probability.
Fulham 1-2 Oldham Athletic | 2019 FA Cup third round
We’ll kick off with a recent shock. Premier League Fulham were expected to cruise past Oldham and into the 2018/19 FA Cup fourth round. League Two Oldham had caretaker boss Pete Wild in charge and were 59 places below Fulham in the ladder.
This game was not expected to make headlines and when Fulham took the lead the bookies, who initially had Oldham at 11/1 to win, pushed the live football odds to 79/1.
Aleksandar Mitrovic even missed a penalty with the scores locked at 1-1, before Callum Lang headed in an 88th-minute winner.
Rarely do teams these days win in the FA Cup at odds of 11/1 but Oldham held their nerve to book a fourth-round clash with Doncaster Rovers. They lost 2-1.
Manchester United 0-1 Leeds United | 2010 FA Cup third round
League One Leeds United were at the lowest ebb in the club’s history when they rocked up at old rivals Manchester United for a mouthwatering third-round clash. Leeds were expected to roll over here, with United having stuffed Wigan 5-0 four days earlier.
The bookies had Leeds at 17/1 to win at Old Trafford for the first time since 1981. Yet Jermaine Beckford popped up with the winner to silence the home crowd and send the 9,000 travelling supporters wild.
It was United’s biggest FA Cup upset since losing to Bournemouth in the 1984 third round.
Hereford United 2-1 Newcastle United a.e.t | 1972 FA Cup third round
Hereford United earned a credible draw with Newcastle to force a third-round replay in 1972. After the game was delayed three times due to bad weather, it was decided that the eventual replay would go to extra time if level after the 90.
That’s exactly what happened after Ronnie Radford’s stunning strike levelled the scores late on and triggered that famous pitch invasion. Ricky George made is 2-1 in extra time to secure the unlikeliest of results.
How unlikely? Researchers reckon there was a 1 in 32,449 chance of Hereford winning that day. No bookmaker would take odds at that size but it shows just how incredible the victory was.
West Bromwich Albion 2-4 Woking | 1991 FA Cup third round
So, what was the most unlikely FA Cup win of all time? According to the same research from the University of Bath, it was Woking’s remarkable 4-2 triumph over West Brom in 1991.
Tim Buzaglo scored a hat-trick as non-league Woking somehow rumbled the second-tier Baggies. West Brom even led 1-0 at half time but Buzaglo scored three in 15 minutes to swing the tie in Woking’s favour.
The statisticians reckon Woking had a 1 in 15,959,312 chance of winning that day – the ultimate against-all-odds triumph.
Sunderland 1-0 Leeds United | 1973 FA Cup final
Sunderland should have had better odds to beat the all-conquering Leeds United in the 1973 FA Cup final. Most bookies didn’t have them any wider than 4/1, despite Sunderland playing in the Second Division.
This was an era where mega odds just didn’t exist. Bookmakers could easily go bust if they went too big on an outsider and they rumbled the favourite.
Leeds were sure-fire favourites to claim victory at Wembley but couldn’t force a way past Sunderland after Ian Porterfield had opened the scoring. The bookies paid out on the unlikely result at odds that didn’t truly reflect the disparity of the two teams.
Liverpool 0-1 Wimbledon | 1988 FA Cup final
Wimbledon’s FA Cup final win over Liverpool has gone down in folklore. Not only was it an upset on paper, but Liverpool were the glamour side and looking to do the double. Wimbledon, meanwhile, weren’t exactly liked as this seeming bunch of misfits clobbered opponents and ground out wins in the top flight.
The 1-0 result, courtesy of Lawrie Sanchez’s first-half strike, was a shock win at around 4/1. The bookies had seen how Wimbledon earned a 1-1 draw at home to Liverpool earlier in the season, and came close to pinching a point at Anfield. They subsequently narrowed Wimbledon’s price before kick off.
Wigan 1-0 Manchester City | 2013 FA Cup final
The biggest FA Cup final upset came in 2013 when fully-minted Manchester City, frustrated at losing the Premier League title race to Manchester United, faced lowly Wigan at Wembley.
Wigan were a generous 10/1 to win as they careered towards relegation. They’d lost all of their last seven matches with City without even scoring a goal.
The Latics threw everything into their defensive unity but were by no means outplayed. They held firm and, in stoppage time, up popped Ben Watson to head home the winner.
Two days later City sacked manager Roberto Mancini. Triumphant boss Roberto Martínez, meanwhile, left Wigan for Everton.
The two sides met again in the FA Cup, in 2014 and 2018. Wigan won both ties. Perhaps the 2013 final result wasn't such a shock after all.
