BETMGM UK GOLDEN GOALS: MATCHDAY 13
Football fans rejoice. Premier League football is back on the slate after a third international break in as many months.
Though it may seem like an eternity ago, Matchday 12 was one of the most goal-centric gamedays in recent memory.
No fewer than 36 goals were scored across the 10 fixtures a fortnight ago – a considerable chunk of those coming from Stamford Bridge in an instant 4-4 draw classic between Chelsea and Manchester City which saw Blues midfielder Cole Palmer net a 95th-minute penalty to grab a point against his former club.
Elsewhere, the Gunners took care of business by dispatching Vincent Kompany’s Burnley while Tottenham conceded a pair of stoppage-time goals to Wolves to fall to a second defeat in a row.
Aston Villa grabbed a third win in four games – extending their Premier League unbeaten run at home since February – while Liverpool, West Ham, Bournemouth and Everton were also all on the winning side. Brighton and Sheffield United played out the only draw of the weekend.
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We were victim to some shock results across the Premier League before the break, resulting in only two correct scores. As for our players, they were not as outfoxed by the unpredictability of the Premier League with 10 players selecting three correct scores for a share of the £5,000 prizepool.
Let’s delve deeper into matchday 13 of Golden Goals…
Burnley vs West Ham
Form (all competitions) Burnley: LLLLL West Ham: WLLLD
Most football fans wish for international breaks to come to an end but, based on recent form, we think Burnley fans wouldn’t mind it lasting even longer. The Clarets’ defeat to Arsenal two weeks ago left them six games without a win – conceding at least two during each defeat.
This easily-penetrable backline is one of many problems that Kompany has not been able to solve in his inaugural Premier League season as a manager. They are the second-worst defence in the league with 29 goals conceded, an alarming seven more than their expected goals against.
Surprisingly, Burnley have a better xGA record than this weekend’s opponents West Ham. The issue, however, is that they can not seem to keep the ball out of their own net. It doesn’t help that they shoot themselves in the foot more than any other team in the division; Burnley have made a joint-league-high eight defensive errors which have led to shots on goal.
Combine that with James Trafford holding the lowest save percentage among starting goalkeepers in the Premier League (60.6%) and it’s a recipe for disaster at the back for Burnley.
That porous defence will try to keep a lid on Jarrod Bowen. The in-form Englishman now holds the Premier League record for scoring in six consecutive away games to start the season. He is currently priced at 9/5 to score anytime in this one if he makes it back from a training-ground injury.
If it’s not Bowen terrorising defences, it’s James Ward-Prowse’s impeccable delivery. West Ham have created five goals from dead balls this season – the second-highest in the Premier League – with Ward-Prowse responsible for four of those.
David Moyes’ outfit still leave a lot to be desired defensively, holding the leakiest rearguard outside the bottom four in the league, but with Burnley’s lack of attacking output, we do not see their defensive rigidity being tested much in this one.
Burnley are yet to win a game at Turf Moor this season – and they won’t improve that record here. West Ham should take the three points.
Prediction: Burnley 0-3 West Ham
Luton vs Crystal Palace
Form (all competitions) Luton: LDLDL Crystal Palace: LWLLD
Cast your mind back to before the Premier League season began; almost every pre-season prediction or preview had Luton Town finishing bottom of the table. While that may still be the case come the end of the year, they are currently surpassing expectations in that regard.
Rob Edwards’ plucky side are outperforming fellow promoted teams Sheffield United and Burnley. They almost pulled off an unbelievable victory against Liverpool before being pegged back late on and they were only narrowly beaten by Manchester United. There’s more to this side than most first thought.
It also helps that they are reasonably resolute on their home patch. Despite not picking up a victory in front of their faithful just yet, they have only conceded seven goals in their five matches at Kenilworth Road. For context, that is the same amount as Arsenal at the Emirates and fewer than Chelsea, Brighton and Manchester United at their respective home grounds.
However, they do need to improve their attacking output if they want to go from ‘nearly men’ to potential Premier League survivors. The Hatters are currently the second-lowest scorers in the league and they have the lowest goals-per-shot-taken ratio in the division.
Luckily, Luton’s opponents are not too goal-happy themselves. Palace’s 12 goals this season is lower than the likes of Everton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves. Odsonne Edouard leads the Eagles scoring charts with five but his goal against Everton on Matchday 12 was his first since September.
Their attacking options have been bolstered back to almost full strength as Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are now regular features after their injury concerns. Eze in particular has had defenders on their heels so far this campaign, completing the third-most successful dribbles per 90 minutes behind only City’s Jeremy Doku and Tottenham’s Manor Solomon.
Luton are capable of picking up another impressive result at home to add to their points tally. It won’t be three points though, we’re guessing a score draw between two battle-tested sides.
Prediction: Luton 1-1 Crystal Palace
Newcastle vs Chelsea
Form (all competitions) Newcastle: LWDWD Chelsea: DWLDW
The highlight of Golden Goals this week is undoubtedly Newcastle United vs Chelsea – but there is a dark cloud that continues to hover over St James’ Park with the lorryload of injuries the Magpies have to contend with.
There can’t be many beds left in the Newcastle physio room with Harvey Barnes, Miguel Almiron, Alexander Isak, Sven Botman, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn and Jacob Murphy currently all enduring a spell on the sidelines.
Some of these players may be back in training but they certainly aren’t 100%. Kieran Trippier, meanwhile, left the England squad this week due to ‘personal reasons’ and Sean Longstaff is a doubt.
Even with all the injury issues in the north-east, Bruno Guimarães is back and Newcastle were on a steady run of form prior to the loss against Bournemouth before the hiatus for internationals. They were on a seven-game unbeaten stretch in the league – including an 8-0 dismantling of Sheffield United. A victory that has very much swayed the goals scored table, in which Newcastle rank joint-third with 27.
The defence has also held up their end of the bargain as well, with Nick Pope attaining the clean sheet leader status alongside Palace’s Sam Johnstone.
Chelsea will hope that they have turned a corner when it comes to clinicality. The Blues have scored eight goals across their last two games, netting four against Manchester City and Spurs respectively.
Even with their goal tally getting a huge boost in recent weeks, they still sit an entire five goals behind their expected highlighting how wasteful Mauricio Pochettino’s side were earlier in the campaign.
On a positive note, Nicolas Jackson appears to have found his footing after some early-season struggles. The Senegalese frontman now has six goals this season, tied with the likes of Isak and Bryan Mbeumo.
Former Manchester City man Cole Palmer has been in inspired form for the Blues, even earning himself an England call in the process. Palmer leads the team in goal contributions per 90 minutes and has scored in four of his last five matches.
We expect a high-scoring shootout at St James’ Park, so we are going for another score draw in this one.
Prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
Form (all competitions) Nottingham Forest: LWLDD Brighton: DDDLD
When does a worrying trend become a glaring issue? That should be the question being tossed around on the south coast as Brighton’s winless run in the Premier League stretched to two months with the draw against Sheffield United.
More worryingly, their unwanted defensive record continued as well: the Seagulls are yet to keep a clean sheet in the entire campaign. The only other three teams with this undesirable accolade are the three promoted ones.
Their dire defensive situation is one of the most perplexing in the league. They don’t succumb to many shots, indeed they have faced the fifth-least amount in the league, so it is a struggle for any team to get something away on goal against them.
Yet, when teams do take fire, they often end up wheeling away in celebration. Teams facing against Brighton possess the fourth-highest goals-per-shot ratio, ahead of only Bournemouth, Sheffield United and Burnley who are propping up the Premier League table.
They are, at least, guaranteed to score goals; they have only failed to score in one game across all competitions, a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in the Carabao Cup.
When you look beyond the curtain, it’s not hard to see why they are so fruitful in and around the penalty area. They have taken the second-most shots on target this season (70) which is only bested by the league leading Manchester City.
Nottingham Forest rank middle of the pack when it comes to shots against, which lends itself to their record of 18 goals conceded this season. That is also middling but it does mean they boast a better record than Brighton, West Ham’ and Chelsea.
Steve Cooper’s men have also found their feet at the top end of the pitch. They’ve managed to bag two goals in three of their last four fixtures.
Forest have yet to lose at home all season and both teams have a habit of sharing the spoils, so it’s another draw for us here. Brighton’s last three games have all ended 1-1, so we were tempted by the quadruple, but we think this one will have slightly more goals.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Brighton
Sheffield United vs Bournemouth
Form (all competitions) Sheffield United: DWLLL Bournemouth: WLWLL
Proverbial six-pointers do not come much more important than this one between Sheffield United and Bournemouth.
A win for the home side will see them finally escape the drop zone if results go their way. As for the Cherries, they could increase the gap between themselves and the Blades with a victory in Yorkshire.
As much as both sides are well and truly embroiled in the relegation battle, they both enter on a reasonable run of form having lost just once in their last three. Bournemouth, in particular, seem to have turned the corner under Andoni Iraola – ignoring the 6-1 defeat to Manchester City, of course.
This slight upturn in results has been inspired by Dominic Solanke, the sole goal threat that Bournemouth offer. He is the team’s leading goalscorer with six, which is four more than any other player in the entire squad.
United would love to have any player even close to six goals at this stage of the season; Gustavo Hamer and Cameron Archer hold the honour of being tied for the Blades’ top scorer with two goals apiece.
It is hard to muster any type of goalmouth action when you land bottom of the league in shot-creating actions per 90 (13.75) and goal-creating actions across the entire season (just 8). That goal-creating figure is six fewer than any other team in the Premier League.
Bournemouth seem to have the attacking edge coming into this one and that will translate into all three points come the end of 90 minutes. They may not have secured a single away win all season, but that should change come Saturday.
Prediction: Sheffield United 0-2 Bournemouth
Brentford vs Arsenal
Form (all competitions) Brentford: LWWWL Arsenal: WLWDW
The Saturday slate is rounded out with a London Derby between Brentford and Arsenal at the Gtech Community Stadium.
It may seem a long time ago but this is where Brentford’s rise to Premier League stability began: a Friday fixture under the lights in their inaugural Premier League campaign, during which they ran out 2-0 victors against Mikel Arteta’s men.
They seem to have lost their firepower against the Gunners as of late though. Brentford haven’t toppled the North London side since that Friday evening in 2021 and have only registered a further two goals across the four games between them in all competitions.
Their recent loss to Liverpool was a minor setback in the impressive run of form that the Bees had formulated. Thomas Frank’s side were on a three-game winning streak before encountering a Merseyside buzzsaw before the international break. It is a streak they wouldn’t mind reigniting against the Gunners.
If they are to get anything from this game, they are likely going to have to play on the counter-attack. Arsenal tend to dominate possession within games – holding the third-highest per-game average in the league with 60.7%.
Even with a large amount of possession, Arteta’s men don’t always translate it into troubling the opposition goalkeeper; they register less than five shots on target per 90 minutes this season., It’s by no means the worst but it does rank below Everton and the rest of the top four.
Arsenal are happy to wait for their openings rather than firing without aim, a clinical characteristic that we think will serve them well when they pick up all three points against Brentford.
It’ll be a close encounter but Arsenal should come out on top and keep the pressure on in the title race.
Prediction: Brentford 1-2 Arsenal
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