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BETMGM GOLDEN GOALS MD13: CHELSEA TO CONFIRM TITLE CREDENTIALS?

Chelsea host leaders Arsenal on Sunday afternoon with the Gunners having the chance to go nine points clear of their London rivals.

Manchester City will be looking to take advantage of any slip-ups when they take on Leeds at the Etihad, while faltering champions Liverpool head to West Ham.

Everton, fresh from the impressive win at Old Trafford, host a Newcastle side without a win on the road.

The Magpies’ North East neighbours Sunderland welcome Bournemouth to the Stadium of Light as Fulham, the side that beat them last week, have a London derby at Spurs.

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Here’s how we see things playing out on Matchday 13…

Manchester City 4-0 Leeds

Manchester City are already at the point where it seems they cannot afford to drop any more points.

Saturday’s defeat at Newcastle was their third already on the road and has left them seven points behind leaders Arsenal.

Fortunately for City the visitors to the Etihad here are Leeds, who have lost five of their last six matches and five of their six away games so far.

Daniel Farke will not be relishing the trip to Manchester. Having thrown away a lead to lose to Aston Villa last week, Leeds have slipped into the bottom three and questions continue to be asked about his future.

City have won this fixture on the last four occasions, including a 7-0 mauling on this ground back in 2021. They’ve also scored three goals in four of their last five home games and, with Leeds yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, this looks like a solid shout to land once more.

The Citizens have had 60 shots on target so far this season – only Chelsea and Manchester United have had more, while no team has scored more than their 24.

Considering this, Leeds’ away form and the recent history of the fixture, 19/4 for City to win, over 3.5 goals and over 4.5 saves by the Leeds keeper holds appeal.

Sunderland 2-1 Bournemouth

Sunderland and Bournemouth are two of only five teams yet to lose a home game this season – something that certainly plays into the Black Cats’ favour going into the weekend.

Much like last year in the Championship, Regis Le Bris’ men have turned the Stadium of Light into a fortress capable of withstanding even the toughest of onslaughts – as shown by the 2-2 draw with title favourites Arsenal.

This doesn’t bode well for the Cherries who, for all their resilience at the Vitality Stadium, currently sit 14th in the Premier League away table.

The Wearsiders have a knack for conjuring goals from very little, overperforming their xG by 3.4 – a sign of a side that currently doesn’t need many chances to create moments of magic from nowhere.

We’re backing Sunderland to edge a very tight game here, especially with the home advantage, but a draw isn’t off the table either considering Bournemouth did bounce back from going two goals down to claim a point against West Ham last weekend.

It’s why our Matchday 13 Bet Builder for this one is Sunderland/draw double chance and both teams to score at 13/10.

One of the best newly-promoted sides in recent history, or proven Premier League experience that packs a punch… who gets your nod in Saturday’s 3pm showdown?

Everton 1-1 Newcastle

Only Everton could have a midfielder slap a team-mate mid-match and still emerge from Old Trafford with three points.

That victory on Monday was their second in a row and David Moyes’s charges now hunt a third straight league win for the first time since the tail end of last season.

Newcastle come into this one winless on their domestic travels this term and arrive on Merseyside after a midweek Champions League loss in the south of France to Marseille.

Their record after European away games is poor, having dropped points in both previous instances this season.

The tactical parity between Moyes and Eddie Howe – who have three wins apiece and five draws in their 11 meetings as managers – strongly suggests another stalemate.

But a draw doesn’t mean a quiet Saturday evening. Indeed this fixture is a magnet for goalmouth action, averaging 9.6 shots on target across the last five encounters.

That guarantees work for the keepers, who already combine for over six saves per 90 this season.

Expect Newcastle to force the issue and, as such, dominate the corner count – a battle they’ve won in four of the last five meetings.

These numbers build a powerful case for our 9/1 Bet Builder: a draw with over 6.5 total shots on target, over 5.5 total saves and Newcastle to have the most corners.

Tottenham 1-0 Fulham

Another London derby, only one without quite the same fireworks. Based on last weekend, that suits Tottenham just fine.

Even more so against the Cottagers at this moment in time.

Marco Silva’s men have matched Wolves for the worst away record in the top flight, picking up just one point from six matches away from Craven Cottage and with no clean sheets to show for it. Not ideal, even against Spurs’ patchy home form.

A narrow win in a low-scoring game feels like the likeliest outcome for Thomas Frank’s men here – a way to regroup and begin to put numbers on the board at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

And, frankly, there can be no other outcome if the Lilywhites are to improve on last season given the pitiful 0.07 xG they produced against their fiercest rivals at the Emirates.

With how open the league is this season, a win could move the north Londoners into one of the European spots if results go their way elsewhere.

Tottenham to win, under 1.5 goals and Richarlison to have a shot on target at 21/2 looks a smart angle in its own right too.

The Brazilian is averaging a shot on target per game and, if there’s a breakthrough to be had, expect him to be involved as his side’s current top goalscorer.

Just don’t go into this expecting an instant classic.

West Ham 2-2 Liverpool

Cast your mind back to Saturday 20th September.

A 2-1 win at home over Everton meant it was five wins from five for Liverpool. West Ham meanwhile, had lost 2-1 at home to Crystal Palace in what proved to be manager Graham Potter’s final game in charge.

Fast forward 67 days and one team has contrived to lose six of their previous seven league games, while the other has taken seven points from an available nine, scoring eight goals in the process.

Such is the heaving, swirling narrative machine that is the Premier League, we see the Reds and the Hammers meet with the crisis script flipped.

It’s been extremely dire from Arne Slot’s men. Only Wolves have earned fewer points than the champions over the last seven games. They are just the fourth side in the competition’s history to start the season as defending champions and finish with six or more defeats in their first 12 games, joining Blackburn (1995-96), Chelsea (2015-16) and Leicester (2016-17) in that unwanted category.

West Ham, meanwhile, come into this game after letting a two-goal lead slip in a 2-2 draw away to Bournemouth last weekend. But they have won two from three, including a comprehensive 3-1 win over Newcastle before the international break.

However, the Hammers’ recent form in this fixture is abject. In the previous five games against Liverpool in all competitions, they have lost four. The aggregate score in those five games reads West Ham 5-19 Liverpool.

With the average goals per game across the last five fixtures between these two standing at a mammoth 4.8, we like a Bet Builder of West Ham/draw double chance and over 3.5 total goals at odds of 9/2.

Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal

After last week's thumping win over Spurs, the consensus is that the Premier League title is Arsenal’s to lose.

Chelsea may have something to say about that on Sunday afternoon.

The Gunners, though, will be pointing to the recent history in their favour. They have only lost once to Chelsea since 2019 and are unbeaten in their last five trips to Stamford Bridge, though the last two have been drawn.

Second-place Chelsea have won five of their last six, four of which without conceding, and a win here would make them genuine title challengers.

They have, however, already lost to Sunderland and Brighton on their own patch this season, while Arsenal have suffered defeat just once in all competitions.

The Blues can narrow the gap at the top to three points with a win, though Enzo Maresca may continue to be without the talismanic Cole Palmer.

Fortunately Chelsea are blessed with strength in depth, with Pedro Nedro stepping up to the plate with two in his last two league games.

He’s inspired his team to wins over Wolves and Burnley, but Arsenal are a different proposition entirely.

They’ve only conceded six goals all season, and four of their six away games have had under 2.5 goals. Mikel Arteta would probably regard a draw here as a good result but, for Chelsea, it would certainly be a missed opportunity.

Unfortunately for the home side, Arsenal just look too difficult to beat at the moment and a draw seems a likely outcome.

Odds of 35/1 for a draw, Neto to score anytime and under 2.5 total goals seems generous, though it doesn’t make for a thrilling outcome and that will suit the visitors more than the hosts.

GG MD13 picks

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