BetMGM UK Golden Goals: Matchday 14
We are back again after an incredible European interlude that saw games involving Newcastle, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal spawn no fewer than 19 goals.
When you sprinkle in yet more VAR controversy, a goal of the decade debate and some surprising results, it has been quite the return to action after the international break.
We were not quite at the races with our predictions last weekend with just three correct results, but an impressive 19 players called that same number of correct scores to share the £5,000 prizepool.
Remember: if you can pick all six scores correctly, you could win up to £1 million. You don't even have to get all six to earn something – if the jackpot is not won, just get more scores correct than your BetMGM peers to win a share of our £5,000 prizepool.
On we go to Matchday 14…
Arsenal vs Wolves
Form (all competitions)
Arsenal: WWWLW
Wolves: LWLDW
These are good times to be an Arsenal fan.
The Gunners are free-scoring, a fact further reinforced on Wednesday when they became the first English team to ever lead a Champions League game 5-0 at half-time.
They are resolute in defence, conceding the fewest goals of the league season so far (11), and are dominating games with an average of 60.9% possession in the Premier League second only to Manchester City (62.2%).
They also have an excellent recent record against Wolves, winning their previous four Premier League games against the Midlands outfit with an aggregate score of 10-1.
Meanwhile, Wolves boss Gary O'Neil dropped the least surprising bombshell of the season ahead of this one – he is not a fan of VAR.
"Maybe tonight has finally turned me against VAR," he said in the aftermath of his side’s defeat to Fulham on Monday night. "I think it is a really complex [issue]. I have always been for VAR but I think it is causing problems now. I think VAR has cost us there."
He is referring to two penalty decisions that went against them on Monday – each one contentious and spawning the wrath of Wolves fans. A draw might have been the fairest result but Wolves could have done more to win the game, losing the non-penalty xG metric 1.3-0.6.
Still, they have managed some surprising results this season – notably they picked up wins against Manchester City and Tottenham – but a victory away to the Gunners is hard to envisage. This will be a home win.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Wolves
Burnley vs Sheffield United
Form (all competitions)
Burnley: LLLLL
Sheffield United: LLWLW
Heartbreaking, brutal, shattering… just some adjectives you could use to describe Burnley's late capitulation to West Ham at the weekend.
They were 1-0 up heading into the final five minutes but, come the full-time whistle, they were 2-1 down and consigned to a sixth-straight top-flight defeat. Incredibly, it's the first time since 1895 that the Clarets have been on a run this bad.
Remarkably, though, there remains some optimism around Burnley and faith in serial Manchester City winner Vincent Kompany at the helm, especially in light of Everton's 10-point deduction.
This will likely be a battle of which defence will be the least porous. Only one team has conceded more goals this term than Burnley (32) — and that's Sheffield United (34).
Fortunately for both goalkeepers, they also face the bluntest goalscoring threats in the division. No team has scored fewer than Burnley (10) with the Blades ahead by just one (11).
The recent record between these two suggests a home win — Burnley have won four and drawn one of the previous five home league games against Sheffield United. We see Burnley continuing that trend. Home win.
Prediction: Burnley 2-1 Sheffield United
Newcastle vs Manchester United
Form (all competitions)
Newcastle United: DWLLW
Manchester United: DWWLW
Both teams experienced leg-sapping and demoralising Champions League results in midweek.
Newcastle were absolutely battered by Paris Saint-Germain, conceding 31 shots in total, but held firm and defended their 1-0 lead well until a last-gasp, unfathomable penalty decision against Tino Livramento saw Kylian Mbappe equalise from the spot.
Manchester United let another two-goal lead slip after a poor performance in goal by Andre Onana to draw 3-3 with Galatasaray.
Two blunders from relatively straightforward free-kick attempts and questionable positioning for the equalising third goal mean that, even though the Red Devils have scored nine goals in their three away games in this group, they are bottom of the group and facing an early exit.
Against the backdrop of such momentous and confidence-denting results, how will both teams react?
The Magpies bounced back nicely from defeat to Bournemouth before the international break with a 4-1 thrashing of an underperforming Chelsea. The Blues' equaliser in that game was the first time Newcastle had conceded at home since August (in a 2-1 loss to Liverpool), ending a 382-minute clean sheet at St James' Park.
They know where the goal is too: no Premier League team hits the target more consistently than the Magpies, with 41.1% of their efforts finding the target.
Despite an uptick in results generally, there are still some worrying trends for the Red Devils. They have conceded 33 goals in all competitions so far this season, which is their worst record at this stage of a campaign since 1962-63.
They are in the bottom half of the table for expected goals (xG) with just 1.52 per 90 minutes despite taking the sixth-highest number of shots (14.2 per 90 minutes).
A wonder goal from Alejandro Garnacho plastered over an unconvincing first-half performance against Everton last week. The underlying form is far more convincing for Newcastle — we are going with a home win.
Prediction: Newcastle United 3-1 Manchester United
Chelsea vs Brighton
Form (all competitions)
Chelsea: LDWWL
Brighton: WWDWD
This is shaping up to be an exciting match — potentially the game of the weekend — with both teams having their fair share of struggles this season.
Chelsea have had a rough patch recently, conceding four goals in consecutive games for the first time in Premier League history against Manchester City and Newcastle respectively. However, they are still second in the league for xG, showing that they are creating quality chances but still need to finish them.
On the other hand, Brighton have struggled defensively this season and have conceded 23 goals — yet they have shown their attacking prowess with an impressive record of scoring in all 13 of their Premier League games.
Both teams, then, are very capable of finding the net and it makes for an exciting and rather unpredictable match. Adding to that unpredictability is Brighton's impressive record against Chelsea: the Seagulls are unbeaten in their last five Premier League meetings.
It's genuinely tough to call — we will go with a score draw.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Brighton
Liverpool vs Fulham
Form (all competitions)
Liverpool: WDWLD
Fulham: WLLWD
Can we call Liverpool bonafide title contenders yet? They certainly have their mojo back under Jurgen Klopp and a draw away to Manchester City last weekend could prove a crucial result in the context of the season.
The mark of champions is how they can bounce back in games and no team has rescued more points from losing positions this season than the Reds (12). Indeed, they have avoided defeat in 10 of the last 11 games in which they have gone behind, with the solitary defeat coming when they were down to nine men against Tottenham.
They are behind only City in xG per 90 minutes (2.24) in the league and sit joint-top of the rankings for shot-creating actions per 90 with 30.77. To top it all off, they have the second-best defensive record in the league with just 11 goals conceded all season, only bettered by league leaders Arsenal.
Based on those numbers, the answer to our opening gambit is a resounding ‘yes’... yet Fulham could be a banana skin.
While the Cottagers have lost four times and won just once in their last five visits to Anfield, they have rarely been overawed. In their previous three league visits to the stadium, they have conceded just three times, winning one of those occasions 1-0. In all competitions, they have lost just once in their last four meetings with the Reds.
They do, however, need to start showing more intent in front of goal. Only Burnley (10.2) and Sheffield United (8.69) average fewer attempts per 90 minutes than Fulham’s 11.
All things considered, this should be a home win.
Prediction: Liverpool 4-0 Fulham
Manchester City vs Tottenham
Form (all competitions)
Manchester City: WDDWW
Tottenham: LLLWW
It has all gone wrong for Tottenham recently.
In fairness, the North London side have been ravaged by injury and suspension — the likes of James Maddison, Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero have been notable and consequential absentees. But there's no doubt Spurs fans are undergoing a recalibration of expectations after their flying start to the campaign.
The prospect of losing four on the bounce for Spurs is genuine despite a fantastic recent record against Manchester City. They have won five of their previous seven Premier League matches against Pep Guardiola's treble-winning conquerors.
This one could be a fascinating clash of styles, with Ange Postecoglou's bombastic strategy providing an intriguing match-up against City. Under the former Celtic boss, Spurs top the rankings for high pressure (passes per defensive action - another way of expressing pressing intensity) and sit third in the league for territorial dominance (share of passes a team has in a game, considering only passes in the attacking third) this season.
However, it's difficult to look past City. They have scored 23 goals in their previous seven games in all competitions, more than 3 per game on average, while Erling Haaland has rediscovered his relentless scoring form, with 11 goals in his last eight games. The draw at home to Liverpool at the weekend was the first time they had dropped points at the Etihad in the league in 2023.
This one will be a high-scoring home win.
Prediction: Manchester City 4-2 Tottenham
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