Golden Goals Matchday 16: Manchester City to bite back against Luton
The Premier League action is relentless as we return for another weekend edition of Golden Goals.
Our £2 million jackpot was not won by any of our players in Matchday 15 but a whopping 60 of you shared the £5,000 prizepool with three correct scores.
We went a little draw-heavy with our predictions and ended up slightly off the mark with just two correct results – though one of those was Aston Villa’s incredible home win against champions Manchester City.
Yes, with the abundance of midweek football it truly feels like the festive fixture list is in full swing so, without further ado, let’s delve into Matchday 16…
Brighton vs Burnley
Form (all competitions) Brighton: WLWDD ; Burnley: LWLLL
Brighton will play entertaining football, both teams will score and, because the Seagulls are at home, they will most likely avoid defeat. Sorry, we are just trying to follow the script of almost every Brighton game at the Amex this season.
In midweek they once again proved they are simply unable to keep a clean sheet when Paul van Hecke brought down Brentford’s Vitaly Janelt in the penalty area.
Brighton’s goalscoring prowess at the other end was ultimately enough to see them through as 2-1 victors and extend their record to 19 straight games where both teams have found the net. Slightly more worryingly, it means they are still to keep a clean sheet during the entire Premier League season to date.
Their tally of 27 goals conceded is only beaten by four other teams in the league – fortunately one of them is this week’s opponents Burnley, who have allowed 33.
We’d expect Burnley’s porous backline to be preyed on by Roberto De Zerbi’s side. They are one of the highest scorers in the league and lead the league in shots-on-target percentage. That’s a scary thought against Burnley’s limp defensive wall that concedes the third-most goals in the league in relation to shots on target.
The Clarets are much improved in the last two outings, despite only meriting one win in those games. They dispatched Sheffield United and held Wolves to only one goal – it’s not much but it’s certainly a slight improvement.
It might not mean much here though. Brighton are the sixth-best home side in the division while Burnley are 17th in away form. Put us down for a comfortable home win – with both teams scoring because it’s still Brighton we’re talking about.
Prediction: Brighton 3-1 Burnley
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Form (all competitions) Manchester United: WLWWW ; Bournemouth: WDWWL
As Forrest Gump’s mother once said: “Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get.”
She very well could have been talking about watching Manchester United. After an insipid performance against Newcastle on Matchday 14, you’d have expected them to roll over for any upcoming opponents.
But no. Erik ten Hag’s band of polarising players produced one of their best performances this season with a 2-1 victory over Chelsea – including a brace from midfielder Scott McTominay, who is now United’s top scorer in the league with five.
They looked relatively comfortable for the entire outing, too. Take a look at the match momentum graphic below – late push from Chelsea aside, the Red Devils remained in control for much of the game.
However, ten Hag’s men are facing one of the most in-form teams in the Premier League this time out in Bournemouth. Very few expected that to be a verifiable statement after the first few months of the season but Andoni Iraola has proven that patience pays dividends and is enjoying a four-game unbeaten run.
Despite all the justified positivity, the Cherries do have to improve their away form. They picked up a win at Crystal Palace in midweek but overall Iraola’s team have conceded the second-most goals on their travels.
Add in that Bournemouth have won only one game against the red side of Manchester since 2016 and we just cannot foresee an away upset. We’re taking a resurgent United for the win.
Prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Bournemouth
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest
Form (all competitions) Wolves: WLLWL ; Nottingham Forest: LLLLW
Gary O’Neil might be putting together a manager of the year campaign.
It may seem hyperbolic but, before the season started, many condemned his Wolves side to relegation due to the clear-out of huge names and a lack of incomings. However, O’Neil is working his magic at Molineux, much like he did in keeping Bournemouth up last term.
Wolves are proving to be a solid side with at least mid-table security in sight, mainly thanks to the inspirational Hwang Hee-Chan’s emergence as the main man in Wolves’ attacking trifecta.
The South Korean forward scored the winner against Burnley, taking his tally to eight for the season from an xG of only 4.87. Hwang’s almost four-goal overperformance is the second-highest in the Premier League – bettered only by his international compatriot Son Heung-min.
Nottingham Forest cannot boast such attacking clinicality. Taiwo Awoniyi remains their top scorer with four but the Nigerian has only found the net once since scoring at Old Trafford in August.
Steve Cooper’s side can’t keep them out at the other end either; they concede the second-highest amount of goals per shots faced in the Premier League this season, which has been the catalyst for only one victory in the last 11.
The fans are well and truly behind the manager, though, and they were even in full voice after the dismal 5-0 defeat to Fulham in midweek.
But it is getting desperate for Forest. We don’t think they will get a win at Molineux but we are going for the same result as the last two times these sides have faced. It’s a 1-1 from us.
Prediction: Wolves 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Everton vs Chelsea
Form (all competitions) Everton: WWLWD ; Chelsea: LWLDW
Midweek produced a familiar story for Chelsea: put in a positive performance against a very good side, then fail to muster a similar display and fall to defeat in the very next matchday.
Where do the inconsistency problems lie? Well, usually, it’s a lack of cutting edge which proves to be their downfall. The Blues are the fourth-least clinical in the division – underperforming their xG by four with 26 scored.
However, their inability to string together results might actually fall on the defence in recent fixtures. Over the last six games, Chelsea have given up the second-most goals, with only rock-bottom Sheffield United conceding more in that span.
Fortunately, Chelsea can lean on history against Everton – they have only lost once to the Toffees in the last five meetings between the two.
History might not be kind to Everton against Chelsea and neither is their home form. The Merseyside outfit have only mustered two victories at Goodison Park the entire campaign, though it was a pair of impressive 3-0 wins against Bournemouth and Newcastle respectively.
You never know which Chelsea will show up and Everton are now desperate for points due to their deduction. We reckon the London side has just enough to squeak by and get three points.
Prediction: Everton 1-2 Chelsea
Fulham vs West Ham
Form (all competitions) Fulham: WLWLL ; West Ham: WDWWL
No team will be riding higher into this weekend’s fixtures than Fulham after their five-star performance against Nottingham Forest in midweek.
Everything finally came together for the Cottagers. Raul Jimenez returned to his scoring best, adding two goals to his account and becoming Fulham’s joint-top scorer in the process (albeit that’s with three).
Goalkeeper Bernd Leno also impressed again and grabbed his fourth clean sheet of the season – drawing level with Manchester City’s Ederson and Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham and better than the likes of Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martinez. It becomes an even more impressive statistic considering the German faces the third-most shots on target per 90 minutes (5.33).
He will have to be at his best once again to keep West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen from finding the net. The English winger began the campaign by scoring in six straight away games, becoming the first Premier League player to achieve such a feat.
He was unable to help out in West Ham’s away game against Burnley due to injury but picked up exactly where he left off by netting his seventh away goal as the Hammers beat Tottenham on Thursday night.
It is important to note that West Ham tend to get the better of Fulham historically. David Moyes’ men have won four of the last five fixtures against their London rivals, netting a goal beyond the 90th-minute mark in three of those four victories.
We’re going to back a narrow away win for the Hammers.
Prediction: Fulham 0-1 West Ham
Luton vs Manchester City
Form (all competitions) Luton: LLWLD ; Manchester City: LDDDW
A loss to Aston Villa on Wednesday night extended Manchester City’s winless run in the Premier League to four – including three draws, marking the only time in recent memory we are talking about a City hat-trick and it isn’t in relation to Erling Haaland’s exploits.
Speaking of the Norwegian, he has failed to net in the last two Premier League games despite having an xG of almost two across both games. There is no real concern that this ‘drought’ will continue but it’s nonetheless always a surprise when he doesn’t notch a goal in consecutive games.
Meanwhile, City will be buoyed by the return of midfielder Rodri. The Spaniard has missed four games this season and the treble-winners haven’t picked up three points in any of them.
He is the linchpin that makes City the unstoppable force of nature we are accustomed to. He leads the team in successful passes as well as ball recoveries per 90 minutes – the definition of an all-around midfield player.
If nothing else, we know they will be playing a valiant Luton side this weekend. The Hatters have shown resilience in every game, but particularly against elite opposition.
Rob Edwards’ men rarely get points for their efforts, however. They are very much the ‘nearly-men’ of the bottom half after being denied a historic win against Liverpool with a last-minute equaliser and robbed of a point against league leaders Arsenal with Declan Rice’s 97th-minute heroics.
It is unlikely they will be able to do the same to Manchester City this weekend. Pep Guardiola will want to turn this run of form around – making a statement in the process.
We have City winning big here.
Prediction: Luton 0-4 Manchester City
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