BETMGM GOLDEN GOALS MD16: EXPECT TYNE-WEAR DERBY DRAMA
The first Premier League Tyne-Wear Derby for almost a decade headlines Matchday 16 as Sunderland, unbeaten at home, host fierce rivals Newcastle United.
Elsewhere this weekend Chelsea will hope to find some consistency at home to Everton, who haven’t won at Stamford Bridge for over 30 years, while faltering Liverpool host Brighton.
Burnley need a win – they have lost six in a row and welcome Fulham to Turf Moor while it’s top against bottom at the Emirates as leaders Arsenal face winless Wolves.
On Sunday afternoon Brentford aim to continue their impressive home record against a revitalised Leeds.
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Here’s how we see things playing out on Matchday 16…
Chelsea 1-1 Everton
Everton haven’t won at Chelsea since 1994.
They come into this one, though, just one point behind the Blues and can leapfrog them into the top four with a historic win.
David Moyes was playing for Preston North End the last time Everton won here but they have won four of their last five games, keeping four clean sheets in the process. The 4-1 defeat to Newcastle aside, the Toffees have been in fine form.
Chelsea, meanwhile, continue to suffer from inconsistency under Enzo Maresca.
Strong recent displays against Arsenal and Barcelona have been surrounded by a defeat at Leeds and a drab draw at Bournemouth. Every time they look to be genuine title contenders, they seem to slip up.
This one will be close. Everton have the joint-best defence outside of the top five, with 17 conceded, but their 18 scored is the fewest outside of the bottom four.
Chelsea have won just two of their last five home league games, but with history firmly on their side, they won’t be expecting to lose this one.
Recent wins at Manchester United and Bournemouth will give them confidence and the form of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall will give them hope, too.
He’s scored three in his last four, and the 7/1 for him to score again on his return to his former club carries big appeal.
A point here would suit Moyes more than Maresca – and we think the Toffees will get it as their resurgence under the Scot continues.
Liverpool 1-2 Brighton
The Liverpool team coach stopped by San Siro on Wednesday to record a precious 1-0 away win over Inter in the Champions League. Mohamed Salah wasn’t on it.
It was a mammoth win in the context of the story that’s enveloped the Reds after Salah hosted an off-the-cuff huddle with journalists in the aftermath of a 3-3 draw with Leeds, claiming he felt the club had “thrown him under the bus”.
It was a rare clean sheet for Slot’s charges. In the previous six games across all competitions, they had conceded 14 goals.
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In Brighton, they could be facing an awkward opponent at an inopportune time.
The Seagulls have scored eight goals in their previous four matches and average 13.3 shots per game in the league so far.
Only Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea manage more. This has been a goal-heavy fixture over recent years.
In their last 10 meetings across all competitions, the two have shared 38 goals.
The visitors can pile the misery on here, meaning Brighton to win and over 2.5 goals in the game at odds of 9/2 looks extremely well priced.
Burnley 1-1 Fulham
This feels like a mammoth game in the context of the campaign.
There’s a sense it’s a must-win game for the Clarets after a run of six defeats in a row.
They will have to sharpen up in front of goal though. In that run, they have managed just four goals, two of which were penalties.
Indeed, Scott Parker’s men unsurprisingly sit bottom of the xG table so far this year.
They are conceding plenty of goals, too, leaking 30 goals so far this season. The defensive solidity that they were feted for last year has dissipated.
Fulham, meanwhile, are seeking to avoid a third-straight defeat after winning two on the bounce previously.
A galling late 2-1 defeat to London rivals Crystal Palace and a dramatic 5-4 loss to Manchester City have set back the Cottagers.
A win here will catapult them 10 points clear of Burnley and likely steer them away from a relegation battle, at least for the foreseeable future. A defeat will drag them right into it.
With so much on the line a share of the spoils and a look at the unders makes sense here, in spite of each side’s defensive issues.
The match to end in a draw and under 2.5 goals in the game at odds of 27/10 makes for a logical punt.
Arsenal 3-0 Wolves
When the league leaders welcome the joint-lowest scorers in the top four tiers of English football this Saturday, there’s only one way this can go.
Winless Wolves are having a real go at chasing unwanted records. Their eight goals in 15 games wouldn’t look out of place in Derby’s infamous 2007/08 campaign while conceding 33 at the other end hasn’t helped either.
They were thumped 4-1 by Manchester United last time out and face an Arsenal side in need of a response after a tricky run culminating in last week’s dramatic loss at Villa Park.
Wolves at home were the sort of games Viktor Gyokeres was brought in for.
The Swedish striker built a name for himself demolishing lower-calibre sides in Portugal and has already shown flashes of the same ruthlessness with a brace against Leeds and goals against Forest and Burnley.
He also leads the line in our 5/4 Bet Builder of an Arsenal win, over 2.5 goals and Gyokeres to score anytime – a worthwhile punt given the gulf in quality between these two sides at opposite ends of the Premier League table.
The Gunners have not had an easy few weeks and will see this game as much-needed respite and three points almost assuredly secured.
In other words: this should be about as routine as it gets.
Sunderland 2-2 Newcastle
Rivalries don’t come much bigger than this one.
The Tyne-Wear Derby is back in the Premier League for the first time since 2016 and few would have predicted Sunderland to be going into this one higher in the table at the beginning of the season.
Though they have just one win in six, they are navigating their way through a tricky run of fixtures, which has seen them beat Bournemouth and pick up very credible draws against Arsenal and away at Liverpool.
The Magpies however, seem to be clicking into gear at the right time. After breaking their domestic away-win duck at Everton, they’ve drawn with Spurs and beaten Burnley, making it four wins in five.
They will be well aware, though, that Sunderland are yet to lose at home this season. The likes of Arsenal, Bournemouth and Aston Villa have all tried to win here and failed and Eddie Howe will know this is a different prospect to the FA Cup meeting in 2024, which Newcastle won 3-0.
The Black Cats haven’t lost any of the last nine Premier League games against Newcastle, famously winning six of them in a row between 2013 and 2015.
The draw does look a solid shout, though either side will feel they are capable of nicking it. Sunderland have scored four injury-time goals at home already this season, and this one will go right down to the wire.
Centre-back Dan Ballard has two Premier League goals, is a big corner threat and has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water. He’s had five shots on target so far and Ballard to have a shot on target in a draw at the Stadium of Light is a tempting 21/2.
Not quite bragging rights for either, then, but you get the sense that both clubs would take it.
Brentford 3-1 Leeds
Sunday’s closer sees two sides with similar successes at home so far this season.
Brentford, fourth-best at home this season, return to the Gtech having sunk Newcastle and Burnley in a swift and decisive fashion with six goals scored across both games.
Leeds arrive off the back of a mini-resurgence, capitalised by the 3-1 win over Chelsea and the breathless 3-3 draw with reigning champions Liverpool, both at Elland Road, which isn’t where their problems lie.
The Whites have lost three games straight on the road, conceding three goals in each, and this feels very much like another away day destined to go south.
Keith Andrews’ men, meanwhile, are absolutely flying at home with three straight wins against Liverpool, Newcastle and Burnley by a three-goal tally in each, which is why we’re leaning more towards a Brentford win come Sunday afternoon.
Though Leeds rarely go quietly…
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is enjoying a resurgence of his own, with three goals in his last three. Even against the sturdiest of backlines, he finds a way and should get one or two chances here, even in defeat.
Put all that together and this 5/1 Bet Builder is hard to ignore: Brentford to win, both teams to score and Calvert-Lewin to hit the target.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change. Please note: This week's Golden Goals deadline is Saturday 13th December 15:00. Opt-in is required and you can find out more here.
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