Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Home win looks the bet
After successful nights for both teams in the Champions League, domestic action returns with a vengeance in the shape of the Madrid derby.
Both teams have something to play for. Los Blancos are well within touching distance of yet another La Liga title, while their fierce local rivals are not completely out of the picture, although defeat would all but guarantee the end of any faint title tilt that remains.
We can see a home win. But we’ve picked out some spicy odds ahead of the clash that caught our eye.
Tip 1 – Real Madrid to score 3+ goals @ 43/20
The Spanish giants appear to have found their groove again. They have won five of their last six games in all competitions, hauling themselves to within four points of Barcelona at the summit of the table.
They have scored at least three goals in two of their previous three matches and can count on the return of Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham to bolster their attacking arsenal.
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid have not been at their defensive best this season. In the previous 10 games in all competitions, they have conceded 19 goals. That’s an average of 1.9 goals per game. It pales in comparison to their season-long defensive record. In 28 La Liga games, they have conceded just 25 goals.
However, there are signs of creaking pillars at the back and this Real Madrid attack feels like it is about to purr. Better than 2/1 on a few goals for the home side looks attractive.
Tip 2 – Kylian Mbappe to score 2+ goals @ 21/5
A recovery from a knee injury has been faster than expected for the French phenom and he has been in incredible form this season. He has scored in eight of his last 11 games and 23 goals in 23 appearances in all competitions with four assists to go with it.
He’s also racking up a huge shooting volume (100+ shots, 50+ on target), which is exactly what you want for a brace bet, with more bites at the cherry.
He also has nearly 200 touches in the opposition box, which shows how often he gets into scoring positions. That’s key against this Atlético team, even if chances are limited, Mbappé is the one most likely to be on the end of them.
Backing him to score a couple of goals seems to be a good-value proposition
Tip 3 – Vinicius Jr and Alexander Sorloth both to receive cards @ 8/1
This is always a tasty clash. In the reverse fixture, a total of nine bookings were dished out to players across both teams.
We are keeping it simple and picking out two of the most-booked players in the league this season for their respective teams in Vinicius Jr and Alexander Sorloth.
The former’s game is built on constant 1v1 duels, drawing fouls and reacting to them. Add in his well-documented tendency to clash with opponents and officials, and in a hostile derby atmosphere, it doesn’t take much for things to boil over.
The latter is Atlético’s battering ram—constantly grappling with centre-backs, contesting aerials, and initiating contact. That physical style naturally draws fouls and retaliation.
It could be tempestuous and 8/1 feels generous.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
