ROMA VS NAPOLI TIPS: TOP BETS FOR HUGE SERIE A TITLE CLASH
A heavyweight tussle with early title implications lights up Serie A on Sunday (19:45 GMT) as league leaders Roma welcome third-placed defending champions Napoli to the Stadio Olimpico.
Separated by just two points, this encounter promises to be a tense, tactical affair between two teams building their Scudetto challenges on contrasting foundations.
Roma, under the guidance of new head coach Gian Piero Gasperini, have been almost perfect on their travels but their form at the Olimpico has been less than stellar with 12 points taken from a possible 18.
Antonio Conte’s Napoli, meanwhile, have been formidable at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona but have struggled on the road with only one win in their last six away matches in all competitions.
Both teams enter the fray following European fixtures though Napoli’s home tie against Qarabag on Tuesday affords them a crucial couple of days' extra rest over Roma, who hosted FC Midtjylland on Thursday.
With two tactical titans in the dugout and the title race heating up, here is how we see Sunday’s showdown in Rome playing out…
Tip 1 – Roma / draw double chance & under 2.5 goals @ 3/4
The data points towards a tight, cagey affair rather than a goalfest.
For all Gasperini’s attacking reputation Roma’s title charge has so far been built on a rock-solid defence; they have conceded a mere six goals in 12 league games.
At home, they have let in just three in six matches and five of those six contests at the Olimpico have seen under 2.5 goals.
Napoli’s attack have hardly been prolific on their travels either, mustering only seven goals in their six away league fixtures.
The trend for close-knit affairs in this fixture is strong: under 2.5 goals has landed in three of the last four meetings and, crucially, in all of the last five played in Rome.
Napoli’s travel sickness is hard to ignore. Having lost five of their last six on the road, backing them to win at the league leaders feels risky.
Tip 2 – Mile Svilar over 2.5 saves @ 17/20
While we expect a low-scoring game, that doesn't mean the goalkeepers will be spectators.
Roma goalkeeper Mile Svilar has been in fine form this season and looks well-priced to be busy again on Sunday.
The Serbia international is averaging 2.9 saves per game in Serie A, a figure that rises to a neat 3.0 per game in home fixtures.
Napoli are averaging over 13 shots per 90 minutes and Roma generally allow more than 10 attempts on their goal so, even if the shots aren't finding the back of the net, there should be enough volume for Svilar to make the required three stops.
At 17/20, backing the Roma keeper to make at least three saves could merit investment.
Tip 3 – Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target @ 10/11
With the continued absence of Kevin De Bruyne, Scott McTominay has licence to roam forward more so backing him to test Svilar looks a smart play.
The Scottish midfielder is averaging 2.26 shots per match this term. More importantly, his accuracy is impressive with 12 shots on target across 10 Serie A starts.
McTominay also relishes this specific fixture, having managed at least one shot on target in both league games against Roma last season.
Given his physical presence in the box and willingness to shoot from range, getting nearly Evens for him to hit the target just once offers real value.
Fancy all our Roma vs Napoli shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 5/1 Bet Builder. Add it to your betslip by clicking here.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.
