Japanese Grand Prix Prediction: Norris can impress at Suzuka

From Australia the F1 roadshow heads north to the Suzuka Circuit for Sunday’s highly-anticipated Japanese Grand Prix.

Reigning world champion Max Verstappen had a race to forget in Melbourne last time out, as a brake failure saw the Red Bull ace retire after just four laps at the Albert Park Circuit.

Prepare for a backlash from the Dutchman, who is the firm 11/50 favourite to take the chequered flag in the Japanese Grand Prix this weekend.

There is certainly better value to be had looking at other markets, however, and here are two selections that are worth considering before the green light goes at Suzuka.

Lando Norris podium finish @ 9/4

Sat in sixth place in the Drivers’ Championship after the first three races of the 2024 F1 campaign, it has been a solid start from McLaren’s Lando Norris.

One of the many sub-plots for this season will be the battle between the two McLarens, with Norris and team-mate Oscar Piastri looking evenly matched in this early stage of the campaign.

Just one point separates the two racers in the Drivers’ Championship standings going into this weekend, with Australian Piastri currently occupying fifth place.

Norris managed to pip Piastri to the final place on the podium last time out at the Australian Grand Prix to secure his first top-three finish of the campaign.

The Englishman managed six podium finishes in a strong year last season, including a second-place finish at last year’s Japanese Grand Prix.

Norris clearly likes the circuit and, after his impressive performance in Melbourne, can build on that at Suzuka this weekend.

If he can disrupt the Red Bulls and Ferraris, the 24-year-old Norris has the car capable of making it back-to-back podium finishes at the Japanese Grand Prix and is available at an appealing 9/4 to do so.

Fernando Alonso top six finish @ 7/4

From the relatively inexperienced Norris to the two-time world champion Fernando Alonso, who will have been disappointed by his 20-second penalty issued at the Australian Grand Prix last month.

Having finished in sixth place in Melbourne, the significant penalty received late in the race saw Alonso dropped down to eighth in the standings at the final count.

Early braking on turn six of the penultimate lap saw Mercedes racer George Russell crash on a poor day for the Silver Arrows, with former world champion Lewis Hamilton failing to finish too.

After the dramatic end to the race at Albert Park, Aston Martin boss Mike Krack said the team had to "accept the decision" over the penalty issued and now Alonso will be eager to make immediate amends at Suzuka this weekend.

A previous two-time winner of the Japanese Grand Prix back in 2006 and 2008, the 42-year-old from Oviedo will certainly have some fond memories of this event.

Alonso has recorded three other podium finishes at the track, so the veteran clearly knows what it takes to handle the circuit and compete at the top end of the grid here.

The former Renault, Ferrari and McLaren driver showed good pace at Melbourne last week and if it was not for the penalty he would have landed a top-six finish in Victoria.

Alonso has already secured a top-six finish in the 2024 campaign, having come in fifth place in the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix in Jeddah . Enjoying eight podium finishes in the 2023 F1 season, the Spaniard has shown he is still a force to be reckoned with in his Aston Martin and will be eager to improve even further this year.

Given his record at Suzuka, and the pace he’s shown already this season, Alonso is well priced at 7/4 in the top-six market for Sunday’s race.

Betting Tip 1: Lando Norris podium finish @ 9/4
Betting Tip 2: Fernando Alonso top six finish @ 7/4
Winner Odds: Max Verstappen 11/50, Charles Leclerc 8/1, Carlos Sainz Jr 8/1, Sergio Perez 14/1, Lando Norris 25/1.