Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Prediction: Russell can showcase Mercedes' true pace

Pre-season running, practice and qualifying for last week's Bahrain Grand Prix suggested that the 2024 Formula 1 season would be no cakewalk for hot favourite Max Verstappen.

Then on race day, the Dutch three-time world champion disappeared into the distance, winning at a canter with his Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez following him home in second.

It was a disappointing start to the season not only for neutrals but also for Red Bull's rivals, however, there are reasons to think the next few races may not play out the same way, starting with this week's Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, with the race once again taking place on Saturday.

Tip 1 - George Russell top-three finish @ 4/1

After a disastrous couple of years by their lofty standards, Mercedes decided to go back to the drawing board and start afresh with their design concept for 2024.

That had the potential to put them on the back foot, but signs in pre-season testing were encouraging as the car was visibly smoother and more driveable on track.

That impression was confirmed in practice in Bahrain as Lewis Hamilton and George Russell topped the times on the first day of running, and both drivers' comments were notably more upbeat than we have become used to.

The team opted to switch focus to race pace rather than single-lap speed on Friday, but Russell was able to qualify a handy third on the grid.

The Briton made a solid start and things looked even better as he muscled his way past Charles Leclerc's Ferrari into second place.

But as Russell set about building a gap behind him his car began to overheat and he was forced to ease off, eventually dropping back behind the Ferraris to finish fifth.

The cause was a miscalculation from the team about how much cooling would be needed, but the potential was there to see and Russell may have been underrated in the market to hit back with a first podium finish of the season.

Tip 2 - Charles Leclerc winner without Max Verstappen @ 5/2

Russell was not the only prominent runner to experience car trouble in the season opener, as Ferrari ace Leclerc also endured a frustrating evening at Sakhir.

Leclerc had actually set the fastest time during qualifying, but it came during Q2 rather than in the final shootout which decides the grid order.

The Monegasque still lined up on the front row, but it became quickly apparent there was something wrong with his brakes, as the red car smoked its tyres and slid wide into corners repeatedly during the early laps.

The puzzled Leclerc slipped back behind Russell, Perez and Carlos Sainz in the other Ferrari, managing the issue and being able to repass Russell's ailing Mercedes to finish fourth.

The absence of the problem on Sainz's car suggests it was a one-off, and the fact the Spaniard was able to finish within three seconds of Perez in the second Red Bull bodes well for Saudi Arabia.

Bahrain is the most abrasive track surface on the calendar, and that may well have suited the Red Bull best of all, particularly Perez - the Tyre Whisperer himself.

Jeddah has no big braking points and the lower dependency on tyre life could help bring the Red Bulls back towards the pack.

Perez led home a 1-2 for the Milton Keynes team in Saudi Arabia last year, with Verstappen hampered by having to start 15th following a mechanical failure in qualifying.

But Leclerc himself had begun 12th after a penalty for an engine change and Ferrari, like Mercedes and McLaren were still a mess at that point of the season.

The fact that Sainz was able to finish 21 seconds ahead of his closest non-Ferrari pursuer in Bahrain suggests their race pace is strong, and with a little more luck this time Leclerc could well emerge as Verstappen's closest challenger in Jeddah.