Cheltenham Festival: Supreme Novices' Hurdle Betting Tips
The famous Cheltenham roar is synonymous with the festival and is at its loudest when the runners are sent on their way for the opening Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30).
The race is typically run at a ferocious gallop with some of the speediest novices around locking horns.
There is a school of thought that stamina is the most important attribute in a Supreme winner and there is unlikely to be any hiding place.
The market is struggling to split leading fancies Tullyhill and Mystical Power, and our expert has picked out an alternative pair to follow.
Selection: Mistergif @ 10/1
Next best: Firefox @ 5/1
Mistergif can emerge as chief from huge Mullins challenge
Willie Mullins threw a cat amongst the pigeons by deciding to declare Ballyburn for Wednesday’s Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle as he had previously taken up a good chunk of the Supreme market.
However, even with Ballyburn avoiding the Supreme, Mullins can still count upon an exceptionally strong hand. The Closutton trainer is set to saddle six runners and Paul Townend’s decision to ride Tullyhill is clearly significant.
This was Tullyhill’s only entry, and perhaps he didn’t want to give up the ride had Ballyburn lined up here. Tullyhill has turned a corner big time since he was heavily defeated at odds of 1-8 on his return and looks a leading player after bolting up at Punchestown in February.
That effort puts him on a similar level to Mark Walsh’s regular mount Mystical Power, a son of Galileo and out of the brilliant Annie Power who landed the Moscow Flyer in excellent fashion. But the market could easily be underestimating Mistergif, who wouldn’t have been ridden by Townend in any case as he is owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede whose retained jockey is Daryl Jacob.
This five-year-old produced a knockout debut for Mullins at Limerick in January on similar ground to what we will see in the Supreme. That performance fared exceptionally well on the clock and he finished with running to give on a card in which all the other winners were finishing legless.
It is a performance that should not be understated in the context in this race and while that was his only start for Mullins, he can call upon substantial experience on the Flat and in France. With the enhanced place terms on offer he rates an excellent each-way play with the race’s most feared runner not lining up.
Don’t rule out the only horse to defeat Ballyburn
There are others to note outside of the daunting Mullins challenge. Slade Steel is building a solid profile for Henry de Bromhead and his ability to stay further will be a positive in the conditions, while Jeriko De Reponet, having been hyped in a big way earlier in the campaign, perhaps isn’t getting the credit his Rossington Main triumph deserves now.
He beat the talented Lump Sum in good style there, although Nicky Henderson’s stable form continues to be of some concern. It is too early to know whether Henderson’s horses are in peak condition for the meeting.
Ballyburn is clearly a superstar, but he isn’t unbeaten, and the only horse to lower his colours is the Gordon Elliott-trained Firefox. He defeated Ballyburn in a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle on his first start in that discipline in November and scored quite comfortably. Clearly that wasn’t Ballyburn’s true running, but Firefox’s bumper performances also stand up to scrutiny and dropping back to this trip is surely going to suit.
Firefox didn’t appear to be in love with the 2m4f trip when failing to reproduce that smart performance in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s of Naas next time, and better is expected on his return from a 60-day break. Elliott is well capable of saddling festival winners off of breaks, indeed many of his strongest chances throughout the week have been campaigned in a similar manner, and Firefox should give punters a good run for their money.
