Six Nations Betting Tips: Back Welsh woe in Dublin demolition
Has there ever been a lower low in international rugby than at this moment for Wales?
Bottom of the table, a points difference of minus 86 and 128 points conceded across those three matches, they have now lost 13 Six Nations games in a row.
The squad morale is likely more soured by the nature of their 26-23 defeat to Scotland last time out.
Cruising with a 12-point advantage at half-time, silly second-half mistakes cost them dearly.
The Darcy Graham try, in particular, will be tough for players and fans to watch back. However, there were signs of visible progress.
Ireland, though, will be a different opposition entirely.
They will be flying high after a memorable win over England at Twickenham and need the victory here to have any chance of reeling in current leaders France and of securing the Triple Crown.
Here are three tips we like for the match at the Aviva in Dublin…
Ireland vs Wales: All You Need to Know
- Kick-off time: 20:10 GMT
- Match date: Fri 6th March
- Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
- Competition: Six Nations
- How to watch: ITV/STV, BBC iPlayer, S4C
- Match market: Click here
Tip 1 – Ireland to win by more than 25.5 points & over 55 total match points @ 37/20
So far in this tournament, Wales have conceded more than 40 points per game.
If you look back at their last 10 games, they conceded 50 or more half of them. The chastening 73-0 win for South Africa still haunts the memory of many a Welsh rugby fan.
Meanwhile, Ireland average 36.8 points per game over their previous 10 matches.
This feels like an oil and water moment – and the separation is going to be stark.
We have Ireland covering the spread and racking up a score to pass the points total, too.
What you need to win: Ireland to win the match by at least 26 points and the total points in the game to total 56 or more
Tip 2 – Ireland to win by 41-50 points at 23/4
Under Andy Farrell, Ireland move the ball quickly through multiple phases and stretch defences until gaps appear.
Against a Welsh side that has already conceded 18 tries in the tournament, that relentless tempo could turn pressure into points very quickly. There’s also the motivation angle.
Ireland still harbour hopes of catching Fabien Galthie’s France at the top of the table and points difference could prove decisive for that.
That makes this the type of fixture where Ireland keep attacking rather than shutting the game down once the result looks secure.
Put those elements together and a high-scoring mismatch feels very possible.
If Ireland push past the 40-point mark – something Wales have already flirted with conceding several times – the game total could comfortably clear 55.5 while the Irish cover the 25.5-point handicap from tip one with room to spare.
What you need to win: Ireland to end the match at least 41 points ahead of Wales but not more than 50 ahead
Tip 3 – Ireland to score over 6.5 tries @ 23/20
It’s a slightly skinny price but this does feel like a romp in waiting.
One of the biggest issues for Wales throughout this Six Nations has been their defensive structure.
Missed tackles and slow defensive resets have allowed opponents to pile on points, with Wales already conceding tries in clusters across the tournament.
Against a clinical attacking side like Ireland, those gaps are likely to be punished repeatedly.
Ireland’s attacking efficiency is among the best in international rugby. With playmakers such as Johnny Sexton previously setting the standard and the current squad continuing that fluid attacking system, Ireland consistently convert pressure into tries once they enter the opposition 22.
If the Irish pack establishes dominance early and their backs find rhythm out wide, the scoreboard could tick over quickly.
With Wales struggling to contain multi-phase attacks, backing Ireland to run in seven or more tries looks like a strong angle for this matchup.
What you need to win: Ireland to score at least seven tries in the match
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation