Six Nations: Week One Betting Tips
It’s the first weekend in February – so it must be Six Nations time. This year’s tournament kicks off with a huge showdown in Marseille as France and Ireland, Grand Slam winners in the last two years, go head-to-head on Friday evening.
England start their campaign against Italy in Rome on Saturday while the opening weekend is rounded off with a fascinating contest between Wales and Scotland at Cardiff's Principality Stadium.
Tip 1 – Under 44.5 points in France vs Ireland @ 21/20
These teams have dominated the Six Nations in the last two years and head the betting again. Their scoring power stood out last year as they scored 41 tries between them from a tournament total of 91 but they may have to approach things differently in this clash.
France have a new half-back pairing in the absence of star names Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, while Ireland are without retired fly-half Johnny Sexton who has been the heartbeat of the side for more than a decade.
New combinations take time to click into gear and, given the stakes are so high, a low-risk approach looks most likely as the teams probe for territory and aim to keep a lid on the game.
Their powerful pack and a vociferous home crowd ought to give France the edge but Ireland will be only too aware of the challenge they face and master tactician Andy Farrell will have his troops well drilled.
The last two meetings in France have topped the 50-point mark but before that we had a run of nine head-to-heads at all venues in which none featured more than 42 points.
Tip 2 – England to beat Italy by 11 to 20 points @ 47/20
England have made a habit of winning big when they travel to face Italy in the Six Nations. They have covered big handicaps in four of their last five visits to the Stadio Olimpico and in those matches they have outscored the Azzurri by 29 tries to three.
There will be an unfamiliar backline running out in Rome this time though. Fly-half Owen Farrell has withdrawn from the England squad for this tournament while – of the backs who started the World Cup semi-final against South Africa in the autumn – Jonny May, Joe Marchant and Manu Tuilagi are all missing.
Head coach Steve Borthwick has named six uncapped backs in his squad and, while the fixture list has fallen kindly with their opening two matches coming against the two teams furthest down the title betting market in Italy and Wales, it’s likely that the new combinations in attack and defence will take time to bed in.
In their last three matches in Rome England have been asked to cover handicaps in the 20s but the line is down to 16.5 as the favourites ring the changes in their squad and the Azzurri have found more of an attacking edge.
England should still win fairly comfortably but a handicap bet at odds-on is hard to weigh up so backing an away victory by a margin of 11 to 20 points may be the way to go.
Tip 3 – Scotland -2.5 vs Wales 17/20
A trip to Cardiff first up might have been a concern for Scotland, who have not won at the Principality Stadium since 2002, but instead they have every reason to be confident.
While so many teams are rebuilding after the World Cup, Scotland have the most settled squad, still directed by fly-half Finn Russell and with dangerous backs.
Where they may fall short in some matches is up front but in this fixture they come up against a Wales squad facing a bigger player exodus than most which has left them with an inexperienced group, particularly in the front five.
The tide may well be turning in favour of Scotland in this head-to-head. They did win the 2020 Six Nations meeting at an empty Parc y Scarlets, then lost by just three points in their last clash in Cardiff in 2022 before running up a record score to claim a historic 35-7 victory over the Welsh at Murrayfield last year.
The Scots had a disappointing World Cup but have a far better chance of hitting the ground running on Saturday and a win by three points or more looks well within their compass.
