Wales vs Italy Tips: Azzurri can make more history in Cardiff
Italy made history by completing a first-ever victory over England last Saturday and can conclude their Six Nations campaign by beating Wales to set another benchmark.
A victory in Cardiff would signal the first time the Azzurri have won three matches in a single Six Nations, having also previously defeated Scotland on the opening weekend.
Wales' campaign opened with an abysmal defeat to England and further reverses against France, Scotland, and Ireland mean they have lost their last 15 Six Nations fixtures.
Italy still hold the record for consecutive defeats, losing 32 matches on the spin before breaking their duck against Wales in Cardiff on Super Saturday in 2022.
Including that result, they have won three of the last four meetings and can improve their recent run in this rivalry at the Principality Stadium on Saturday.
Tip 1 – Italy to win by 1-12 points @ 6/1
Italy were very much plucky losers before their 2022 win in Cardiff and continued in that vein under Kieran Crowley, however, their mentality has changed since Gonzalo Quesada took over ahead of the 2024 Six Nations.
In that campaign, they won twice and drew against France and have continued to improve, beating Wales again last year, but 2026 has been a real benchmark, outlasting Scotland in a clinical opening performance and almost winning in Ireland.
There were also positives to take from the round three defeat against France and they showed real resilience to outdo England, making the most of the Red Rose's indiscipline.
Their Super Saturday trip to Wales will have been earmarked ahead of this year's Championship as a fixture to target and they are the favourites heading to Cardiff.
Wales have undoubtedly improved as the tournament has progressed, but as Italy often showed between 2015 and 2022, it can be tough to translate those green shoots into victories.
The last four meetings have been settled by one, 12, three and seven points, so don't expect a classic, but do look for an Azzurri win.
Tip 2 – Rhys Carre to score a try @ 7/2
One of the sights of this Six Nations have been Rhys Carre's bolts for the line.
The prop was publicly branded not fit enough for international rugby by Warren Gatland but is thriving under Steve Tandy and has scored tries in his team's last three fixtures.
After going close to his preferred close quarters in last Friday's defeat in Dublin, Carre scored one of the tries of the Championship as he fended off Tadhg Furlong and Robert Baloucoune before tumbling over the line following the latter's attempted tackle.
Wales will again be looking to get Carre involved close to the Italian line on Saturday and, while opponents know what's coming, few have figured out how to stop the 28-year-old when he gets going.
Tip 3 – Monty Ioane to score a try @ 15/8
Monty Ioane has always had talent, but has clearly worked hard to hone that ability and is now matching his speed and footwork with the ball by displaying smarts without it in defence.
He was excellent against England, but didn't get a try and is still to get over the line in the 2026 Six Nations.
That could change on Saturday and he has a good record against Wales, scoring two international tries against this opposition.
Ioane could get some joy out of Wales' right wing, Ellis Mee, who is a talented player but who can be caught out in defence and is yet to consistently show he has the physicality to thrive in Test rugby.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation