Love Island: Research reveals the real Casa Amor effect

Since its introduction in 2017, Love Island's Casa Amor has become one of the most dramatic and eagerly anticipated segments of the show. This twist sees the original couples separated, with one group moving to a second villa, Casa Amor, where they meet a new group of singles - the bombshells. The goal? To test whose heads might turn. However, BetMGM’s analysis of the outcomes for winning couples reveals that Casa Amor rarely predicts the final winning pair.

Out of the eight seasons since Casa Amor's inception, only one couple (12.5% of the winners) who met and coupled up there went on to win the show: Kai and Sanam in 2023. While Casa Amor provides the drama, it rarely forms the foundation for the show's overall winners. This is further highlighted by the fact that only 1 out of 8 of the winning couples, Amber Gill and Greg O’Shea (2017), met after Casa Amor due to Amber's previous partner, Michael Griffiths, cracking on with a bombshell and breaking Amber’s trust.

This season Wil Anderson (14/1), who is currently coupled up with Uma Jammeh (12/1), has been ‘getting to know’ Lucy Graybill (20/1) while the girls are in Casa Amor. Similarly, Ayo Odukoya (8/1) was seen kissing new bombshell Jessica Spencer (25/1) and taking her to the hideaway while being coupled up with Mimii Ngulube (8/1).

Will the boys keep grafting with their new bombshells and leave their partners behind? BetMGM research suggests history would not be in their favour to do so if winning is their main priority.

Interestingly, 2017’s Amber Davies and Kem Cetinay are the only winning couple where both members didn’t remain loyal to each other and recoupled during Casa Amor but later got back together and then went on to win the series.

Notably, 50% of the winning couples over previous series have stayed ‘loyal’ to their original partners during Casa Amor despite some having their heads momentarily turned by the bombshells, suggesting that relationships made before the twist are more likely to last the temptation.

Ciaran Davies (5/4) and Nicole Samuel (6/4), this season’s favourite couple to win, have shown a strong bond from the start and, with them continuing to show this loyalty to each other so far in Casa Amor, perhaps they are putting themselves in good stead to remain favourites this series and take home the prize.

While Casa Amor adds a real test to relationships, this new research suggests that the path to winning Love Island often lies in the pre-established bonds between Islanders before they head into Casa Amor and loyalty trumps the temptation the twist brings. ‘The Casa Effect’ is more about stirring the pot than creating lasting winning connections.

Browse all of BetMGM’s Love Island markets here.

Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.