Love Island 2024: The romantic realities after the villa

As the final of this year's Love Island approaches, fans are impatiently waiting to see which couples will make it in the real world and which will crumble under the pressures outside the villa. Historically, the odds are not in favour of surviving love. BetMGM research indicates that a staggering 75% of couples call it quits before hitting their first anniversary.

Sadly, Love Island love often struggles to survive the test of time. On average, couples who make it to the final or win the show split up 265 days after leaving the villa. Out of the 40 couples studied from past seasons, only 25% remain together, and just 12.5% progress to engagement or marriage, joining the likes of Molly-Mae Hague and Tommy Fury who are engaged with their first child, and Camilla Thurlow and Jamie Jewitt, who are married with three children.

This year’s couples

Ciaran Davies & Nicole Samuel

Ciaran and Nicole have been coupled up since week one, and their bond has only grown stronger over the past six weeks. Despite a few small hiccups, such as Ciaran's Casa Amor kiss during a game, the pair have been inseparable. They’ve even dropped the L bomb. Their commitment seems strong, with Nicole expressing how she feels like she’s known Ciaran forever. Priced at 1/3, they are the favourites to win the show. However, the pressure of public scrutiny and new opportunities can put pressure on even the most solid relationships. Will they beat the odds and join the 25% who go the distance?

Joshua Oyinsan & Mimii Ngulube

Josh and Mimii's relationship is still fresh, but it shows promise. Josh recently surprised Mimii with a special breakfast, recruiting Reuben and Matilda to help distract her while he put together waffles and fresh fruit to surprise her on the terrace. Their playful and caring gestures highlight their growing connection. Priced at 4/1 to win, they have a chance of making it work outside the show. Their success will likely depend on how they navigate their differences and maintain the connection they have built in the villa during their busy post-show lives.

Sean Stone & Matilda Draper

Sean and Matilda’s relationship is relatively new, rekindled after Sean’s head was turned by not one but two girls in Casa Amor. Since then, their romance has been gaining momentum, including a recent date where they drove off into the Majorcan sunset in a Porsche. Despite being priced at 8/1 to win, their ongoing efforts to build a connection seem promising. They might face challenges adjusting to life post-Love Island, and whether they can overcome these hurdles will determine if they fall into the 75% or manage to defy the statistics.

Ayo Odukoya & Jessica Spencer

Ayo and Jess are the longest price at 33/1, suggesting a slim chance of winning. Their relationship has faced numerous challenges in the villa, including moments of doubt and drama. Adapting to the real world might prove even more difficult, with external pressures potentially increasing their struggles. However, Love Island has seen its share of surprises, and they might just prove everyone wrong.

Love Island offers a fascinating look at romance under a microscope, but history shows that sustaining these relationships outside the villa is a daunting task. While some couples do manage to build a lasting connection, the majority crumble to the pressures of reality.

As we follow this year’s Love Island couples on their journeys, it will be interesting to see who will join the 25% that makes it and who will part ways.

Browse all of BetMGM’s Love Island markets here.

Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.