UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Betting Tips
The UFC returns to Mexico City with Brandon Moreno facing Lone’er Kavanagh in the main event.
The former Flyweight champion takes on the unranked Englishman, who steps in at short notice.
The card also showcases a host of upcoming Mexican talent, including David Martinez, Daniel Zellhuber, Edgar Chairez, Imanol Rodriguez and Santiago Luna.
Here are our best bets for Saturday night's MMA card.
Tip 1 – Brandon Moreno to win by Finish @ 7/4
The key to this main event battle between Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) and Lone’er Kavanagh (9-1-0) will likely be experience.
This will be Moreno’s 10th contest over Championship distance in what will be his 20th UFC fight.
A former champion who first captured gold in 2021 when dethroning Deiveson Figueiredo via third-round submission, the popular Mexican won, lost and regained the title as part of a famed quadrilogy with the Brazilian.
Despite making his debut in 2016, Moreno is still only 32 years old and although he dropped the title to Alexandre Pantoja, remains competitive amongst the elite featherweight contenders.
2-2 since that 2023 title loss, Moreno has beaten both Amir Albazi (UD) and Steve Erzeg (UD) and lost to Brandon Royval (SD) and Tatsuro Taira (TKO - R2).
December’s defeat to Taira was Moreno's first ever loss inside the distance in the UFC.
Kavanagh is young and explosive, particularly in the first round and gets this opportunity despite a knockout loss to Charles Johnson last August.
The 26-year-old has two UFC wins to his name, defeating both Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa on the scorecards.
A fight over five rounds, at elevation and in front of Moreno’s vociferous home support in Mexico City is going to be a tough ask for the young and ultimately inexperienced Englishman.
Taking this opportunity at short notice will do his long term prospects no harm, but with six finishes from his 11 UFC wins, Moreno has both the skillset and experience to get this one done inside the distance.
Tip 2 – Edgar Chairez to Win & Under 2.5 Rounds @ 19/20
This card feels like it has the matchmaking to showcase Mexican talent, particularly in the case of Edgar Chairez (12-6-0, 1 NC) against Felipe Bunes (14-8-0).
Chairez is 2-2 1 NC in the UFC, with first-round submission wins over CJ Vergara and Daniel Lacerda.
The no contest on his record relates to his first bout with Lacerda, which was overturned as an early stoppage following another first-round submission.
Chairez’s only defeats were on the scorecards to the current champion Joshua Van and on debut to now number one contender Tatsuro Taira.
Bunes is 1-2 in the UFC with his only victory against Jose Johnson at the start of 2025.
The 36-year-old was TKO’d on debut by recently crowned champion Joshua Van, while was also outpointed last summer against Rafael Estevam.
At 30 years old, Chairez is coming into his prime and with his nasty elbows and knees, as well as slick ground game can overwhelm Bunes here.
Tip 3 – Santiago Luna by KO, TKO or DQ @ 13/8
Another hot prospect is Santiago Luna (7-0-0) who returns to action here against Angel Pacheco (7-3-0).
Luna is 1-0 in the UFC, defeating Quang Le in the first round via TKO at the Sphere last September.
The 21-year-old has won all seven of his pro contests so far inside the distance, showing power in his hands with three knockouts and a slick ground game, earning four submissions.
Pacheco arrives here on a two-fight losing streak, including in his UFC debut last time out and on the Contender Series.
The 34-year-old’s debut defeat was almost two years ago when he was outpaced by the now released Caolán Loughran.
Fighting at altitude in Mexico City is unlikely to be Pacheco’s friend and he could well find this difficult against a prospect who is good on his feet and also with his grappling.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
