UFC 297 - Strickland vs Du Plessis & Undercard Tips

Sean Strickland’s first defence of his Middleweight title kicks off the UFC’s first numbered card for 2024 this weekend in Toronto.

Here are our picks for the Main Card.

Tip 1 - Dricus Du Plessis to beat Sean Strickland by Finish - 7/5

Sean Strickland pulled off a massive shock when he dominated Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 back in September. The American’s tricky style gave the long-time champion serious problems as he was unable to find his usual rhythm throughout the five rounds, eventually losing by unanimous decision.

The ultimate gym fighter, Strickland loves to spar continuously throughout the year and although he can put on some masterful defensive performances, he does get dragged into wars. Before his run to the belt with back to back wins over up-and-comers in 2023, we saw Strickland KO’d by Alex Pereira and lose a razor close split decision to Jared Cannonier. This is where Dricus Du Plessis could capitalise and find himself hearing Bruce Buffer call “and the new”.

The South African has finished all but one of his 20 wins by knockout or submission including last time out in devastating fashion over former champion Robert Whittaker. Du Plessis has supreme confidence in both his stand-up power and ground game and will step on the gas to find a finish should he manage to put any kind of dent in Strickland.

Tip 2 - Mayra Bueno Silva to beat Raquel Pennington by Submission - 41/20

The co-main event in Toronto will see a new Women’s Bantamweight Champion crowned as former title challenger Raquel Pennington gets a long-awaited second chance at gold as she faces Mayra Bueno Silva.

Pennington is on a five-fight win streak coming into this fight, although she has now been on the sidelines for 12 months with her last outing coming in January 2023. The 2013 Ultimate Fighter winner previously fought for the belt in 2018, losing to Amanda Nunes, who retired as champion in May last year. This defeat is Pennington’s only stoppage loss in the UFC to date.

However, Bueno Silva looks like she is ready to succeed her fellow countrywoman Nunes by taking Bantamweight gold. A product of Dana White’s Contender Series, the Brazilian has nine submission wins on her resume and has come through some adversity to get to the belt.

With a UFC record of 5-2-1 1NC, the 32-year-old would have been on a five-fight win streak had it not been for her submission of Holly Holm last time out being overturned to a no contest due to a ban for a prohibited substance, albeit for a long-term medication for her ADHD. Bueno Silva’s devastating performance in that fight proved she is ready for a championship. That result would also have been just Holm’s second submission loss of her long and distinguished career, so it would be no surprise to see Bueno Silva do the same to Pennington.

Tip 3 - Mike Malot to beat Neil Magny by Submission - 23/20

Expect the Scotiabank Arena crowd to explode when hometown hero Mike Malot makes his way to the Octagon this weekend. The 32-year-old has had three UFC fights to date and has yet to see the third round. His fast start to his UFC career has earned him many plaudits, including comparisons to fellow Canadian legends Rory MacDonald and Georges St. Pierre.

Malot has only amassed 12 fights in a career which is entering its 13th year. Although he might not have as many pro fights as his contemporaries, he looks fresh and full of MMA wisdom from his years in the gym. In contrast, UFC veteran Neil Magny will be making his 40th pro MMA walk this weekend, his 22nd in the UFC.

Now at 36 years old, Magny has only been losing to top contenders with Ian Garry, Gilbert Burns and Shavkat Rakhmonov his last three losses. Although Magny’s most recent outing in August went to decision, he suffered a bad beating at the hands of Irishman Garry, losing a three-round fight 30-26 on two scorecards and 30-24 on another. Magny is 3-3 since 2022, with two submission defeats. The timing, particularly on home soil, looks perfect for Malot to take out an experienced name in the Welterweight division and get this done within the distance by making it a hattrick of submission wins.