UFC 298 Volkanovski vs Topuria: Betting Tips

Alexander Volkanovski makes the sixth defense of his Featherweight title at UFC 298 as he faces an undefeated Ilia Topuria.

Here are our three best picks from a stacked Main Card.

TIP 1 - Alexander Volkanovski to beat Ilia Topuria by decision - 49/20

Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski had an unusual 2023 with his record in the calendar year 1-2.

The two defeats he suffered, his first since 2013, were as a result of moving up in weight to face Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.

Their two contests firstly saw a closely-fought match-up at UFC 284 in February, while the second was a knockout loss at short notice at UFC 294 in October.

Sandwiched in between those defeats Volkanovski dropped back down to Featherweight to knockout Yair Rodriguez at UFC 290 in July.

The Australian has taken on and defeated all-comers in his natural weight class with some stellar names on his resume, including a trio of wins over Max Holloway, as well as beating the likes of Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega and The Korean Zombie.

The main question around Volkanovski is that now at 35 years old, how has that knockout to Makhachev affected him?

He certainly looks and sounds refreshed and remotivated after admitting being out of the gym and “drinking daily” before his short notice call-up to face Makhachev in October.

There is no doubt a fierce challenge awaits in Ilia Topuria, who is arguably the one person in the division you wouldn’t want to face after a knockout loss.

The Spaniard is undefeated in his 6 UFC fights and in 14 all time pro MMA outings. The 27-year-old is a fierce competitor with both powerful stand-up and ground games.

Added to this is an almost Conor McGregor-like confidence in his own ability and destiny. Indeed, he already has a documentary “Road to the Belt” scheduled for release in the months after his first UFC title shot.

Topuria has almost everything you want in a champion in waiting, except perhaps the depth in his resume, having secured his title shot with a dominating win in a five round contest against Josh Emmett.

Ideally you’d want at least one more top-five name on his record before you commit fully to his ability to beat a dominant champion like Volkanovski.

On paper, the skill, experience and heart of the current champion should be enough to take this, despite a fierce challenge from a young, hungry competitor who definitely won’t give up at any stage over the five rounds.

Volkanovski over the distance is our pick, leaving Topuria’s “Road to the Belt'' film needing some extended shooting time.

TIP 2 - Paulo Costa to beat Robert Whittaker - 39/20

Former Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker has been so good in his career that he was often deemed “the champion if not for Israel Adesanya” ever since dropping the belt to the Nigerian in 2019.

The 35-year-old defeated the likes of Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori over the scheduled distance since losing his title.

However, he ran into Dricus Du Plessis last time out in July at UFC 290 suffering a devastating second round KO.

Now “The Reaper” must try to get back on track against Brazilian Paulo Costa, who hasn’t been seen in the Octagon since facing Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 in August 2022.

Costa is a pressure fighter with a great chin. His lack of activity is a worry, with two fights and six canceled bouts, including against Whittaker himself back in 2021, since his defeat to Adesanya at UFC 253 in 2020.

Whittaker must be at his technical best and use his high fight IQ to eliminate the dangers posed by Costa. After his KO by Adesanya, Whittaker was involved in a highly technical chess battle with Till over five rounds.

There is no chance Costa will allow him to slow the fight down and will present a similar high pace, high volume threat to that of Du Plessis.

You have to take a slight leap of faith with Costa due to his lack of activity, but he does look to be in supreme shape.

There is no question he’ll be the busier fighter here and could take advantage of any hesitancy and feeling out from Whittaker early on to build a lead that leaves the Australian chasing.

We’ll take the odds on Costa winning this by any means, but are extremely tempted to back him taking this on the judges scorecards at 13/2.

Tip 3 - Ian Machado Garry to beat Geoff Neal & over 1.5 rounds 10/11

Last summer Ian Garry was seen wearing t-shirts featuring Geoff Neal’s police mugshot ahead of a scheduled bout at UFC 292.

“Undisclosed medical reasons” for Neal saw the fight fall through in August with it now finally set to go down this weekend.

No stranger to controversy, Garry similarly had a lot of heat on him heading into his eventual canceled bout with Vincente Luque at UFC 296 back in December.

The 26 year old seemed to be fielding controversy and criticism in every direction going into a fight week which felt like it was going to implode.

A bout of pneumonia sidelined the Irishman and saw that fight canned and the bout with Neal rebooked.

Neal was last seen in the Octagon in March last year, losing to another highly touted up-and-comer in Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Ranked #8 in the division, the 33-year-old has wins against solid names such as Vincente Luque, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Mike Perry and Belal Muhammad.

As the nickname might suggest, “Handz of Steel” has 5 KO/TKO’s in his 7 UFC wins with his boxing heavy style.

There is no doubt Neal will present a tougher test than Garry’s last opponent Neil Magny, who he was able to completely dominate over five rounds despite not getting a finish.

However, if Garry is to live up to his hype, he has to get the job done here, preferably within the scheduled distance against another tough to put away opponent.

Garry will have learnt from the Magny fight and, if he is on top of his game, can use his reach and speed advantage to keep this at distance and pick apart Neal at range.

We expect him to win, but can’t see this going early.