NFL Week 7 Tips
With a third of the NFL regular season gone, the league’s hierarchy is beginning to take shape, and a few unexpected challengers have made bright starts.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts became the first teams to notch five wins in a wide-open play-off race.
Both of those surprise contenders are in action on a Week 7 slate that features a London showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars, a gritty AFC North clash on Thursday night, and the Atlanta Falcons’ visit to a San Francisco 49ers team that is getting healthy again.
Here are four of the best bets for the upcoming games, including confident picks in Detroit and Cincinnati, plus a value play in London.
TIP 1 – PITTSBURGH STEELERS -5.5 @ 10/11
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers (Friday, 1:15am BST)
Thursday Night Football features a lopsided AFC North matchup as the 4-1 Steelers visit the 2-4 Bengals, who are still without Joe Burrow.
Aaron Rodgers has brought stability to Pittsburgh’s offense, and the Steelers have covered in five of their last six against Cincinnati.
The Bengals’ defense ranks bottom three in red-zone efficiency and QB pressure rate, and Joe Flacco will struggle to keep pace against a Steelers unit that’s tied for sixth in red-zone scoring.
TIP 2 – OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS @ 9/10
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 2:30pm BST – at Wembley Stadium, London)
The Rams take on the Jags at their second home of Wembley on Sunday and this game could be very different to last Sunday’s mistake-riddled matchup that the NFL served up at Tottenham.
Los Angeles bounced back from their shock loss to the 49ers with an easy 17-3 win at the Baltimore Ravens last week. Matthew Stafford did an efficient job as the Rams’ defence set the tone with four sacks and three forced turnovers.
They now come up against a Jaguars team that missed several scoring opportunities in their 20-12 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
Jacksonville averaged 25 points per game for the first five weeks of the season and they could push Los Angeles all the way in this one, with the points total of 44.5 looking a little low as long as conditions on the day remain dry.
TIP 3 – ATLANTA FALCONS +3 @ 17/20
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons (Monday, 1:20am BST)
Sunday Night Football sees the 4-2 49ers host the 3-2 Falcons in a matchup that could be closer than the odds suggest.
San Francisco have lost two of their last three games as injuries have taken their toll on both sides of the ball, but they might be getting starting QB Brock Purdy, star tight end George Kittle and speedy wide receiver Ricky Pearsall back this week.
However, with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner out for the year, the Niners' defence looks vulnerable.
The Falcons are coming off an electrifying home win over the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football and seem to have found their offensive identity.
Michael Penix Jr was efficient against a good Bills defence as both running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London produced big gains and spectacular scores.
Atlanta’s offensive line has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient run-blocking units and they can clear the path for the Falcons to keep this close behind Robinson.
TIP 4 – DETROIT LIONS -5 @ 10/11
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 12:00am BST)
The 4-2 Lions return home after a tough loss to Kansas City and should take out some of their frustration on a 5-1 Tampa Bay team that has benefitted from a soft early schedule.
Detroit were punished for their mistakes at Arrowhead Stadium and their injury-hit defence couldn’t hold a resurgent Patrick Mahomes in check.
They next get to face Baker Mayfield and the banged-up Bucs and will perhaps put the MVP talk surrounding the former written-off No.1 pick to bed.
The mercurial Mayfield inspired the Bucs to a 30-19 win over the 49ers without his three top wide receiver targets, as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were sidelined by injuries and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka left the game after two catches because of a tight hamstring.
Evans could potentially return this week, but lead rusher Bucky Irving is still doubtful and Mayfield’s luck is due to run out.
Detroit have covered bigger numbers than this in both of their home games this season and should bounce back with a convincing win.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
