NBA Play-Offs Round 1 Betting Tips
The NBA Play-Offs begin on Saturday, with some huge matchups bracketed in the first round.
The league has had seven different champions in as many years, and this era of parity is set to continue, with some new contenders making a leap this season.
Ahead of the opening games of Round 1, we've picked out some standout series bets, covering the next two weeks of action.
Question marks for Cleveland
Tip 1 – Over 5.5 Games in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors @ 1/1
A year ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers entered the Play-Offs as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Their sweep of the Miami Heat made them seem like the real deal, before they exited in the second round against the Indiana Pacers.
The Cavs - now boasting the most expensive roster in the NBA - finished fourth in the East this time around. Their big trade deadline swing was swapping Darius Garland for James Harden, but the 2018 MVP has a terrible postseason reputation.
The Cavs also have a poor track record in the Play-offs. Before last year's disappointment, they exited in five games to the Boston Celtics, after edging past the five-seed Orlando Magic 4-3 in the first round.
The Toronto Raptors are seen as a soft touch among this year's Play-off sides. However, they had the fifth-best defence, and they were a top-10 side away from home. They've got the ingredients to trouble Cleveland, so we’re backing this series to go to six games at least.
The Hawks are taking flight
Tip 2 – Atlanta Hawks +1.5 Series Handicap vs New York Knicks @ 10/11
A feature of recent NBA Play-offs is that a side has been able to get their act together late on, and carry that momentum into the postseason.
The Indiana Pacers clicked in January last year, and they ended up just 24 minutes short of winning the championship. The Dallas Mavericks made the finals in 2024 after a trade deadline reshuffle, while the Miami Heat peaked as the eighth seed to reach the 2023 Finals.
The closest comparison to those teams in this season's field is the Atlanta Hawks. They quickly decided to move on from star guard Trae Young, who they traded away for pennies on the dollar in January.
The Hawks continued to be active in trades up to the February deadline. Since the All-Star break, they're 20-6, with strong underlying numbers to back up that run.
Without Young, the Hawks are a much stronger side defensively. Jalen Johnson's jump, a late-career surge from CJ McCollum, and the emergence of Most Improved Player favourite Nickeil Alexander-Walker as a high-level scorer have all contributed to making the Hawks a scary proposition. The Knicks have issues on and off the court, and this Atlanta side will really test them.
Nuggets to go the distance again
Tip 3 – Denver Nuggets to win 4-3 vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 4/1
The Denver Nuggets played two seven-game series last year on their way to a second-round exit. The 2023 champions had plenty of injury issues in that run, and those carried on into the regular season.
The Nuggets lost in seven to the Timberwolves in 2024. While this Minnesota team isn't quite as strong, they have the talent to make this a competitive series. Anthony Edwards has exceeded expectations in the postseason in back-to-back years, and he can drag Minnesota to wins on his own.
Denver are the strongest side in the league offensively, but they have issues to deal with at the other end of the court. Minnesota have enough perimeter-shooting to match up with the Nuggets, particularly at home, so we’re backing this series to go the distance, with Denver's home advantage taking them into the second round.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation
