Champions League Semi-Final 1st Leg Betting Tips
From PSG and Bayern Munich’s appetite for goals to Atletico Madrid and Arsenal’s pursuit of a first European crown, we’ve lined up some top angles ahead of two finely poised Champions League semi-finals.
Champions League Semi-Finals: All You Need to Know
- Kick-off: 20:00 BST (both nights)
- Event date: Tue 28th & Wed 29th April
- Stadium: Parc des Princes (Tue); the Metropolitano (Wed)
- How to watch: Prime Video (Tue); TNT Sports / HBO Max (Wed)
- Event markets: Click here
Tip 1 – Luis Diaz to score or assist vs PSG @ 21/20
To score a brace only to be sent off in the first 45 minutes is some achievement – one Luis Diaz managed in some style at the Parc des Princes last November.
The former Liverpool man is one third of the most potent attacking trio in Europe alongside Harry Kane and Michael Olise, the three combining for 143 goals and assists across all competitions.
In the Champions League, Diaz has either scored or assisted in each of his last five appearances and is one of the key reasons Bayern find themselves in this position after scoring in both quarter-final legs against Real Madrid.
Of course, swapping Diaz for Kane is very appealing in its own right, with the England international finding the back of the net in five successive Champions League appearances and currently priced at 8/11 to do the same here.
But we prefer the winger’s chances after showing he can already deliver the goods against the defending European champions.
Plus the odds are a touch better.
Tip 2 – Over 2.5 goals in PSG vs Bayern Munich @ 2/5
If last year’s Champions League semi-final between Inter and Barcelona was the starter, this could very well be the main course when it comes to goals and entertainment.
Bayern have run roughshod over the Bundesliga this season, securing their most commanding title win yet by scoring 113 goals – a truly absurd return even by their standards and almost double PSG’s 63 in Ligue 1.
In Europe, though, they’re level pegging with 38 goals each so far with Tuesday night’s semi-final promising more of the same if not more, as sampled when these two met in the league phase.
That game ended 2-1 to Kompany and co., a loss Luis Enrique’s side will be keen to avenge – much like their road to last year’s final at Allianz Arena despite losing to a game Arsenal earlier in the competition.
Over 2.5 goals in the match has landed in 11 of Bayern’s 12 games in this competition and 10 in PSG’s.
At 2/5, this one should more than satiate an unrelenting appetite for goals.
Tip 3 – Arsenal/draw double chance @ 4/11
Arsenal’s domestic woes have been just that: domestic.
In Europe, Mikel Arteta’s side are practically imperious as the only side yet to lose a game in the competition so far with 10 wins and only two draws.
Going back even further, the Gunners have lost only two of their last 22 matches in the Champions League – both at the hands of PSG, home and away, at this exact stage last year.
The north Londoners have scraped by in recent weeks with injuries and fatigue really starting to show.
And yet here they are back in the Champions League semi-finals for the second year running for the first time in club history.
Atletico Madrid, kindred spirits to Arsenal in many ways, arrive after seeing through a similar slump, with six defeats in their last nine though none nearly as deflating as the Copa del Rey final.
We expect some sort of response here given the occasion but Arsenal’s record against Spanish opposition – seven wins from their last seven, including a 4-0 victory over Atleti on Matchday 3 – is hard to ignore.
We see this playing out like the Sporting CP quarter-final, or even the semi-final against Villarreal in 2005/06, with the Gunners edging a narrow win or draw to set up an even cagier second leg.
Tip 4 – Woodwork to be hit in Atletico vs Arsenal @ EVS
Champions League ties between two sides with similar styles often come down to moments – typically orchestrated by players like Eberechi Eze for Arsenal and Julian Alvarez for Atletico Madrid.
What do these two in particular have in common?
Both struck the woodwork when these sides met at the Emirates back in October, which brings us to our fourth and final tip, currently priced at EVS – an appealing price given the Gunners’ penchant for testing the sturdiness of the opposition’s goal.
Only Bayern Munich (with 12) and Benfica (nine) have hit the post more than Arsenal’s eight in the competition this season.
What’s more, they’ve done it three times across their last three games – twice against Manchester City in the Premier League and once in the 0-0 stalemate with the Portuguese outfit to punch their ticket to this forthcoming semi-final.
For as defensively solid as both teams are expected to set up, we expect Diego Simeone and Arteta to encourage more guile from their wealth of attacking options.
And more guile means more shots on goal. The more shots, the greater the chance of at least one rattling the post.
Have your name up in European lights by combining all four predictions in our 5/1 Acca here.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.
