EFL CUP FINAL TIPS: CITY TO EDGE IT AS TOP TWO DO BATTLE
It’s the battle of the Premier League’s top two in Sunday’s EFL Cup as Arsenal take on Manchester City for the first silverware of the season.
A win for either side here could have a huge impact on the rest of the season, and both clubs will be desperate to lift the trophy at Wembley.
Arsenal haven’t won this competition since 1993 and lost to City in the 2018 final – one of the Citizens’ eight triumphs.
Can City make it number nine, or will Arsenal end the trophy drought?
Tip 1 – Manchester City to lift the trophy @ 11/10
Pep Guardiola loves the EFL Cup.
Over half of City’s titles have come under the stewardship of the former Barcelona coach, including a run of four consecutive wins between 2018 and 2021.
Arsenal will be a stern test. The two-time winners are looking for a first major honour since the FA Cup in 2020.
The Gunners are top of the Premier League, nine points clear of City and still competing in four competitions. Their consistency and resolve this season so far have fans dreaming of a return to the glory days – but you can never write off the Citizens.
It’s six games in all competitions since Arsenal lost to City, but they will be wary of the eight consecutive defeats prior to this run.
Chelsea were seen off by Mikel Arteta’s men in the semis, as City eased past Newcastle, and this one will be tight – it could easily go all the way. Only five goals have been conceded between them in this year’s competition.
We don’t see a repeat of the 3-0 win for City when the two met in the 2018 final, but we are backing Guardiola’s men to get the job done – and potentially gain a psychological edge for the rest of the season.
It’s a tempting 11/10 for Manchester City to lift the trophy, as Arsenal’s wait goes on.
Can they use this as the shot in the arm they need to close the gap at the top of the Premier League table?
Tip 2 – Eberichi Eze & Antoine Semenyo to have a shot on target @ 13/5
What vital additions these two have been.
Eze has nine goals for Arsenal in all competitions while Semenyo has seven for City since arriving from Bournemouth in January.
Both have already found the net in this competition, and their explosive attacking could be key to their teams’ chances of success.
Former Crystal Palace man Eze has had 16 shots on target in the Premier League this season, including four in his last four matches. He has fond memories of Wembley, too – scoring the winner in last year’s FA Cup final for the Eagles.
Semenyo has slotted in nicely at City, with 36 shots on target in the league alone for City and Bournemouth, and only teammate Erling Haaland has had more shots altogether than his 59.
He has only failed to at least force a goalkeeper to make a save in five games so far. Goal attempts for both sides are remarkably identical in the Premier League, too, with 321 shots each.
It’s 13/5 for Eze and Sememyo to have a shot on target in 90 minutes on Sunday, a price that stacks appeal given their track record and the stakes of this game.
Tip 3 – Martin Zubimendi & Bernando Silva to be carded @ 11/1
Keeping discipline is huge in a major final, and Arteta and Guardiola will be hoping their players stay out of Peter Bankes’ notebook.
Given the nature of the game, however, this is highly unlikely to happen.
Martin Zubimendi and Bernado Silva will both be eager to win the all-important midfield battle, and both have developed somewhat of a habit of picking up cards this season.
Zubimendi has eight bookings so far this season, while Silva has 12 yellow cards and a red. The dismissal coming on Tuesday and all but ended City’s hopes of Champions League progression.
The Portuguese international also picked up a card in the league meeting between these two at the Emirates, and has four in his last six Premier League games.
Cards may well be on the agenda – referee Bankes has brandished 84 yellow cards in 22 league games, and may well be adding a few EFL Cup ones at Wembley.
The 11/1 for two of those to be Zubimendi and Silva is well worth a look.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
