EFL CUP THIRD ROUND TIPS: ANGE ERA CREATES BETTING OPTIONS
The usual David and Goliath cup tie story gets a fascinating twist as Championship high-flyers Swansea City welcome a Nottingham Forest side at the beginning of a tactical revolution.
The Ange Postecoglou era at the City Ground has begun and, after a weekend loss to Arsenal, the new manager has promised his high-pressing, front-foot style will be implemented immediately for this EFL Cup third round tie.
For Swansea, whose home ground has become something of a fortress recently, this could represent a golden opportunity.
This clash between a settled, confident Championship outfit and a top-flight team undergoing a seismic identity shift makes for an intriguing betting environment.
Here’s how we see it playing out…
Tip 1 – Both Teams to Score @ 3/4
This pick almost writes itself.
Swansea have been a reliable source of goals on their own patch, failing to find the net in only one home game across all competitions in the last seven months.
They also come into this off the back of a six-game unbeaten run and will be brimming with confidence.
Then there’s the Postecoglou factor.
The Australian has been emphatic that his new charges will start playing his way from this match onwards, shedding the counter-attacking skin of their former boss Nuno Espirito Santo.
Remember, Postecoglou is a manager whose idea of football is built on relentless pressure and attacking intent. And goals. Plenty of them.
Last season his Tottenham side allowed the most xG in the Premier League outside of the three relegated teams.
His teams are designed to push and press without stopping which, while thrilling, often leaves them defensively exposed.
With Forest players still adapting from a more reactive, counter-attacking style and the Swans capable of scoring on their own patch, this one is ripe for chances at both ends of the pitch.
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Tip 2 – Swansea Goalkeeper Over 3.5 Saves @ 7/10
Flowing logically from our first tip, a more aggressive Nottingham Forest should translate into a busy evening for the man between the Swansea sticks.
Postecoglou's demand for a front-foot approach will inevitably lead to an increase in shots from his side as they get to grips with the new system.
Consider, too, Swansea's league form. In the Championship, where they are one of the stronger teams, their keeper averages two saves per 90 minutes.
However, just as notable is that they still concede more than nine shots per game on average. Now, they are up against a Premier League side that has been explicitly instructed to attack.
Forest's European qualification last term speaks to the quality in their ranks and, as they pepper the Swansea goal in a bid to impress their new manager, the home keeper will be called into action far more frequently than he is used to.
This step up in opposition, combined with the ‘Ange-ball’ effect, makes a high save count a very appealing prospect regardless of whether it’s Andy Fisher or Lawrence Vigouroux in the Swansea goal.
Tip 3 – Over 10.5 Corners @ 5/4
The statistics heading into this game already point towards a high corner count.
So far this season, matches involving Swansea have averaged 10.8 corners while Forest's games have seen an average of 10.25.
That provides a fantastic baseline and the tactical elements at play on Wednesday should only see that number climb.
Postecoglou's system heavily utilises his wingers, tasking them with isolating and taking on their opposite numbers to stretch the play and deliver crosses and pullbacks into the six-yard area.
This philosophy naturally leads to more crosses, more blocked shots and more frantic defending in and around the penalty area – all prime ingredients for winning corners.
As Swansea look to counter and exploit the space left by an advancing Forest side, they too will contribute to the count.
With both teams' existing trends and the added attacking impetus from the visitors, the corner flag should be getting a good workout.
Fancy all our EFL Cup shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 5/1 Bet Builder. Add it to your betslip by clicking here.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
