Euro 2024 - Day 11 Tips - A Tense Atmosphere in The Group Of Death
While Spain are safely through after two wins from two games, Group B is still set for a nervy finish on Monday night. While there are just two Euro 2024 matches on Monday, both have plenty riding on them and tension should be high.
Albania will be hoping to catch out a weakened Spanish side as they chase a surprise place in the last 16 while Croatia and Italy are essentially playing off for a place in the next round in Leipzig with the World Cup semi-finalists in must-win territory.
Ahead of Group B’s tense finale, we have picked out the best bets for the games, which both kick off at 20:00.
Tip 1 - Albania vs Spain - Both teams to score @ 10/11
Albania have provided some great entertainment at this tournament and that should continue in their clash with Spain. Sylvinho’s side have opened the scoring against both Italy and Croatia and would love to do that again in this must-win game for them.
Albania’s late equaliser against Croatia has them in contention to make the last 16 with a win over Spain. While that is a huge task, Albania have been more competitive than many expected so far and they’re facing a Spain side who have nothing to play for having already secured first place in the group.
Spain will be without key man Rodri through suspension and they may well choose to rest other stars ahead of their first knockout clash. Given that Albania have nothing to lose, they are likely to go for it and that should result in another open game.
Goals look to be on the cards given that Albania have conceded twice in both of their games. With the shield usually provided by Rodri missing, the Spanish defence could be exposed and an Albania side desperate to progress can at least get a goal.
Tip 2 - Croatia vs Italy - Under 1.5 goals @ 49/20
While Albania’s push for the last 16 should open up their clash in Dusseldorf, things are likely to be closer when Croatia meet Italy. The Italians need a point from this clash to progress, while Croatia have to win to avoid elimination.
Croatia’s need to push forward isn’t likely to translate into goals, given how blunt they look up front. Finishing has long been Croatia’s problem at major tournaments and they look really poor in the final third.
Italy may have been hoping for an attacking spark from new boss Luciano Spalletti, but that didn’t materialise against Spain. The Italians looked blunt in that clash, while they essentially shut down after responding to Albania’s stunning strike in their opener.
Despite Spalletti’s usual approach, Italy have not looked adventurous and they should be capable of holding a blunt Croatian side at bay, so under 1.5 goals makes plenty of appeal. The clash in Leipzig should be a tense affair, so going against goals looks like the best way to approach the contest.
Tip 3 - Croatia vs Italy - 0-0 Draw @ 9/1
Even if Albania manage a surprise win over Spain, Italy hold a head-to-head advantage over them thanks to their 2-1 victory. That means a single point from their final game would take Italy into the last 16 as the second-placed side in Group B.
A defeat to Croatia would bump Italy down to third at least, while Albania could leapfrog them with a win. That makes Monday’s clash more of a must-not-lose encounter for Italy, which could see some of their traditional defensive inclinations taking over.
The clash with Spain was a backs-to-the-wall job for Italy and now they meet another side who like to dominate the ball. However, the Italians should be reasonably confident that they can hold Croatia at bay, given the misfiring start this ageing squad has had to the tournament.
Croatia failed to score against Spain and they took 74 minutes to net against Albania, with their second goal being a calamitous own goal.
Italy’s 1-0 loss to Spain came through an own goal too, so it’s easy to see both sides failing to score, especially as that suits the Italians’ prospects of progressing to the next round.
The last three meetings between these sides have finished 1-1, but goals are likely to be even harder to come by in Leipzig. As a result, a 0-0 draw appeals in the correct-score betting. With just a single own goal scored in Italy’s last 164 minutes of action backing the defences to come out on top is attractive.