EUROPA LEAGUE LAST 16 TIPS: ALL-ACTION ANDERSON & VILLA PROGRESS
Lots of Europa League last 16 ties could go either way after last week’s first legs.
Nottingham Forest head to FC Midtjylland 1-0 down, with a tough task against a very strong home side.
Aston Villa grabbed a narrow win at Lille last Thursday, putting themselves in a strong position for qualification ahead of the return leg at Villa Park.
There’s also the all-Italian clash between Bologna and Roma, delicately balanced at 1-1 – the same as Celta Vigo’s clash with Lyon.
We’ve explored the fixture list and have compiled our three best bets for the Europa League last 16…
Tip 1 – Elliot Anderson to have a shot on target and be carded vs Midtjylland @ 8/1
Forest have it all to do.
A second home defeat to FC Midtjylland of the campaign sees the Tricky Trees head to Denmark needing to overturn a 1-0 deficit.
FC Midtjylland are unbeaten at home in the Europa League, and conceded just one goal at the MCH Arena in the league phase.
Forest midfielder Elliot Anderson has often dragged them through games this season and they may well turn to the former Newcastle man for inspiration here.
Anderson popped up with a huge goal at Manchester City recently, and has had eight shots on target in the Premier League so far – as well as three in nine European games.
He loves a strike from distance but perhaps worryingly for Forest, has developed a bit of a penchant for a booking.
He’s committed more fouls than any of their players in Europe with 16, and has already picked up two yellows and a red so far. Add to that his five yellows in the Premier League, and the high takes of this game, he may well work himself into the referee’s notebook again.
It’s an interesting 8/1 for Anderson to have a shot on target and be carded here.
Forest have to go for it – whether they can pull it off, at a tough place to go, remains to be seen.
Tip 2 – Aston Villa to beat Lille and under 2.5 goals
Villa are going through a sticky patch domestically but last week’s first-leg win over Lille has put them in a strong position here.
The Europa League is their only chance of silverware after a poor run and Unai Emery is targeting a fifth title in the competition.
The Villans were strong in the league phase, winning all four of their home games and shipping just three goals. They conceded just six goals overall, and half of their matches contained under 2.5 goals – the same also applies to Lille.
Domestically, six of Lille’s last seven Ligue 1 matches have had under 2.5 goals, while for Villa it's eight of their last 10.
A low-scoring affair is likely here, then.
Villa will be happy with that. Progression is the only aim as they strive to get a faltering season back on track. A narrow win would suit them against a side that lost three of their four league phase matches away from home.
It’s 12/5 for a home win and under 2.5 goals.
A smart play.
Tip 3 – Over 4.5 Bologna corners vs Roma @ 33/20
This all-Italian clash is finely poised.
Level at 1-1 after the first leg in Bologna, anything could happen between the sides separated by just two places in the league phase – and two places in Serie A.
Bologna finished just a point behind Roma, but their 10th spot meant they faced a play-off, which they came through without conceding against Brann.
They lost just once in the league phase too, a narrow defeat at Aston Villa, but three draws meant they finished below Roma, despite the Giallorossi losing more games.
One thing the home side here will need to be wary of is a set-piece threat.
Bologna had seven corners in the first leg to Roma’s three – in keeping with the number of corners they have taken throughout the competition.
Their 86 in 11 games is 16 more than second-highest Lille’s 70, and means they average almost eight corner kicks per match.
As such, the 33/20 for Bologna to take over 4.5 corners here screams value – despite being away from home.
_Fancy all our Europa League shouts to land? You can combine all three tips into a 80/1 Acca. Add it to your betslip by clicking here
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
