INTER VS AC MILAN TIPS: 3 BEST BETS FOR DERBY DELLA MADONNINA
The stage is set for another tempestuous chapter in Milanese football history as Inter and AC Milan prepare to lock horns in the first Derby della Madonnina of the season.
The Nerazzurri are top of Serie A by virtue of their positive head-to-head record against Roma and boast the division's most potent attack with 26 goals.
Yet a curious storyline unfolds in the derby itself: Inter are without a win in their last five against their city rivals, a barren spell stretching back to April 2024.
The third-placed Rossoneri will view this as a chance to close the gap in the Scudetto race. They arrive unbeaten on their travels and having drawn their last three away matches, albeit this one is of course an ‘away’ match like no other.
This fixture also follows a disruptive international break. While Inter captain Lautaro Martinez was busy becoming Argentina’s fourth-highest goalscorer of all-time, his midfield team-mate, and the league's top scorer, Hakan Calhanoglu picked up a hand injury with Turkey.
Calhanoglu is expected to be passed fit – but it all adds to the delicious sense of unpredictability that only a derby of this magnitude can provide.
Here’s our best bets for the occasion…
Tip 1 – Draw & BTTS @ 3/1
There’s a compelling case to be made that this derby ends in a stalemate in which both sides find the net.
This exact outcome has materialised in two of the last three meetings between these two giants – and the trend for goals is even more compelling with both teams scoring in six of the last seven derbies.
In the blue corner, Inter’s firepower is undeniable; they lead the division in goals scored, eight clear of nearest rivals Bologna.
However their defence, while statistically sound on paper with the league's lowest xG against (8.7), has still conceded 12 times in 11 matches.
This suggests that while they limit clear-cut chances, they are not invincible, a weakness a confident Milan can exploit.
Adding further weight to the prospect of a draw is Milan's recent form. They have remained unbeaten since a shock opening-weekend loss to Cremonese, with four of those 10 matches ending in a share of the spoils.
Couple this with Inter’s five-derby winless streak and the 3/1 for a score draw merits serious consideration.
Tip 2 – Over 9.5 corners @ 10/11
Derbies lend themselves perfectly to a high corner count and the statistics back that up emphatically.
While domestic matches involving Inter this season have seen a healthy average of 10.45 corners, the derby stats are even more compelling with the last five clashes between these two producing a staggering 12.2 per game.
And while it’s true Milan’s matches this term have been more modest on that front, with an 8.8 corner average, the derby environment changes everything.
The over 9.5 corners line seems more than achievable given the recent history of this fixture.
Tip 3 – Woodwork to be hit & over 5.5 total saves @ 7/5
The woodwork has been rattled five times in the last four derbies and these two teams have struck the frame of the goal a combined 13 times already this Serie A season.
This points to teams who are not afraid to shoot their shot – indeed, Inter take almost 18 per game and Milan more than 13.
The saves element adds another layer of intrigue. While the last derby was an anomaly with just three saves in total, the five prior to that averaged a far more telling 8.6 per match.
Inter's defence is statistically robust, boasting the lowest xG against in the entire league at just 8.7. They don't concede many high-quality chances, then, yet have allowed 12 actual goals in 11 games nonetheless and offer up around nine opposition shots on any given matchday.
With everything at stake – and both, rather than just one, of these sides harbouring legitimate Scudetto dreams for once – expect both Yann Sommer and Mike Maignan to be tested multiple times during the 90.
Fancy all our Inter vs AC Milan shouts to land? You can combine all these tips into a 10/1 Bet Builder. Add it to your betslip by clicking here.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
