JUVENTUS VS AC MILAN: 3 SERIE A TIPS FOR SUNDAY SHOWDOWN
Sunday’s headline Serie A fixture sees Juventus host AC Milan in a renewal of one of Italy’s most storied rivalries.
This is a significant early-season barometer for both clubs, pitting Igor Tudor’s unbeaten Juventus against a resurgent AC Milan side helmed by former Juve head coach Massimiliano Allegri.
The tactical battle is compelling. Juventus have started the term unbeaten but have been held to two consecutive draws, raising questions about their true credentials.
In contrast, Milan travel to Turin with a perfect away record and the momentum of a crucial 2-1 home victory over champions Napoli last weekend.
Allegri, who won five league titles with the Bianconeri, now returns looking to cement his new side at the top of the table.
Compounding the intrigue is Juve’s midweek 2-2 Champions League draw away to Villarreal, a demanding trip that contrasts sharply with Milan's full week of preparation due to their absence from European competition.
With contrasting circumstances and tactical questions to be answered, the value lies in dissecting the key trends…
TIP 1 – DRAW @ 49/20
The case for the draw is compelling and rooted in recent history.
Juventus may have won the last corresponding fixture 2-0 in January but that victory was an outlier, representing their only home win against the Rossoneri since November 2019.
This fixture has become synonymous with tight margins and a stalemate has become a frequent outcome.
Juve have also demonstrated a propensity for draws. They enter this match having drawn their last two domestic games and a precedent for such runs was set last year when they recorded two separate streaks of three consecutive draws or more.
Crucially both of those runs included a draw against AC Milan, indicating a persistent difficulty in separating the two sides.
While Juve's unbeaten domestic record is noteworthy, Milan's flawless away form this season suggests they possess the tactical discipline and quality to secure a result in Turin.
Factoring in the potential for fatigue in the Juventus camp following their European exertions, a share of the spoils at 49/20 presents a logical and valuable betting proposition.
TIP 2 – UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 7/10
Expect a tactical grind rather than a goalfest.
The data from recent meetings is unequivocal: at least one team has failed to score in eight of the last nine Serie A encounters between these two.
This defensive solidity is a hallmark of Tudor’s current Juventus side; with the exception of one high-scoring 4-3 win over Inter all of their domestic fixtures this term have produced under 2.5 goals.
Tudor’s dogmatic commitment to his 3-4-3 system, even with recent injury concerns for key players like Bremer and Khephren Thuram, is a significant factor.
The head coach himself has also noted his primary forwards — Lois Openda, Dusan Vlahovic and Jonathan David — are not natural fits together for the system, which inhibits attacking chemistry.
While Milan arrive after a 2-1 win over Napoli, three of their five league games this season have also finished with under 2.5 goals and this fixture demands a more cautious approach.
Despite a longer-term trend showing over 2.5 goals in seven of the last 10 league meetings, the current tactical reality of both teams points firmly towards a low-scoring contest.
TIP 3 – OVER 10.5 CORNERS @ EVENS
While goals may be scarce, corner kicks are forecast to be plentiful.
The corner markets offer a prime opportunity based on the tactical profiles of both teams.
Juventus have been prolific in winning corners this season, averaging 6.4 per league game while AC Milan’s average stands at a healthy 5.2.
Their combined average of 11.6 is comfortably above the required line for this tip – and the tactical battle in Turin is likely to fuel this trend.
Tudor’s high-pressing, vertical style is designed to force the issue, leading to blocked crosses and clearances.
Allegri’s Milan, meanwhile, are known for attacking through the centre and taking a high volume of shots, a strategy that often results in deflections and saves.
The last five meetings have produced an average of 10 corners per game and, with both sides desperate to assert themselves in a high-stakes match, an increase in that figure is a strong possibility.
At Evens for over 10.5 corners, this represents a solid investment.
Fancy all three of our Juventus vs AC Milan selections to land? You can combine them into a 7/1 Bet Builder by clicking here
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
