Lazio vs Roma: Back share of spoils in Derby della Capitale

Two Roman giants will collide at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday as Lazio ‘host’ Roma on the fourth matchday of the new Serie A season.

Both sides will be desperate to secure all three points against their familiar foes – but is a draw the most likely outcome?

Lazio only managed to procure one win from their opening three league contests, subsequently finding themselves in mid-table.

A 2-0 loss to Cesc Fabregas’s new-look Como side was followed up with a thumping victory over Verona at the Stadio Olimpico. However, the Biancocelesti were narrowly defeated by Sassuolo last Sunday.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s men have fared slightly better, generating six points from a tricky sequence of victories.

The Giallorossi recorded 1-0 triumphs over Coppa Italia holders Bologna and newly-promoted Pisa before losing by the same scoreline to Torino at the weekend.

Team News

Manuel Lazzari missed Lazio’s clash with Sassuolo after sustaining a calf injury in training, but will need additional recovery time. Fellow defender Samuel Gigot is also sidelined, having struggled with ankle and back issues in recent months.

Having suffered a setback in his recovery, Matias Vecino will also be unavailable at the weekend. Maurizio Sarri confirmed the experienced Uruguayan midfielder will be reassessed in the coming days, but it’s expected he’ll return before the end of the month.

Roma’s injury list is equally short, but the absence of Paulo Dybala is undoubtedly a hammer blow.

The Argentinian ace was substituted at half-time in Sunday’s home defeat to Torino, having developed a thigh problem in the opening 45 minutes.

Recent recruit Leon Bailey also finds himself on the treatment table, having picked up a muscle injury early on his loan spell.

Tip 1: Draw @ 43/20

Depending on how you manipulate the stats, you could make a fairly solid case for either side to triumph in this season’s first Derby della Capitale.

Roma – who will be classed as ‘visitors’ in their own stadium on Sunday afternoon – are unbeaten in the last four meetings with their fierce rivals, conceding just one goal in the process.

However, they haven’t won as the away side in this fixture since December 2016 when goals from defensive midfield duo Kevin Strootman and Radja Nainggolan ensured the Lupi secured a 2-0 victory.

Consequently, Lazio haven’t experienced defeat in each of their last eight ‘home’ derbies, suggesting the two-time Scudetto winners may have the upper hand.

In reality, both teams are likely to cancel one another out.

Tip 2: Valentin Castellanos to score or assist @ 13/8

After registering a goal and two assists during Lazio’s 4-0 win over Verona, expect Valentín Castellanos to make another decisive impact in the final third.

The Argentinian centre forward delivered 22 direct goal contributions across all competitions last term, influencing his team’s performance in both the domestic and continental arenas.

Having continued his rich vein of form into the current season, he’ll be looking to achieve a similar set of numbers this time around.

As he assumes an integral role in Sarri’s attacking setup, the hosts will be relying on Castellanos to demonstrate his creativity and clinical finishing on Sunday.

Tip 3: Lazio under 1.5 Goals @ 4/11

Coming up against the meanest defence in the league is never an easy task but Lazio’s profligacy in front of goal further undermines their chances of appearing on the scoresheet.

The Biancocelesti have the second-highest XG in the Serie A at 5.1 but have only managed to net on four occasions – all of which came in the recent thrashing of Verona.

Roma join Napoli at the summit of the league’s defensive charts, with both teams only conceding once throughout the opening three matchdays.

Serbian keeper Mile Svilar has saved an impressive 88.9% of the shots he’s faced so far, helping his team to keep clean sheets against Bologna and Pisa.

Therefore, don’t be surprised if Lazio struggle to overcome Roma’s resistance.

Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change