Ligue 1 2025/26 Outright Betting Tips
As part of their historic treble-winning campaign, PSG ran away with the Ligue 1 title to nobody’s surprise last term, finishing 19 points ahead of next best Marseille to land a fourth consecutive crown.
Although they were beaten by Chelsea in their quest to be champions at the Club World Cup this summer, nobody in France is at the level of the Parisians and it should be another straightforward romp to the title for Luis Enrique’s juggernauts.
The odds certainly suggest that, with PSG 1/9 to make it 12 Ligue 1 crowns in 14 years, we must look elsewhere for outright value.
We have tips in both the without PSG and to finish in the top three markets, with an improving side providing a big price in the latter.
Tip 1 – Winner without PSG - Marseille @ 5/2
Roberto De Zerbi’s first season with Marseille went exactly as expected. Complete with free-flowing attacking football, training ground bust-ups and plenty of excitement, it was a typical De Zerbi campaign.
Overall, however, it was a resounding success, as, excluding runaway champions PSG, Marseille scored more goals (73) and earned more points (65) than every other Ligue 1 side.
It is a surprise, therefore, to see they are not the favourites in the without PSG market this time around.
Monaco instead head the betting, but while they have been busy this summer, their signings do not inspire enough confidence to suggest they can reverse the places with Marseille.
Paul Pogba, Ansu Fati, Eric Dier and Lukas Hradecky would have been excellent signings four years ago but are somewhat less exciting this time around.
Monaco also took 27 points from their final 15 games of last season, while Marseille earned 28, including 13 from their last five, suggesting De Zerbi’s men have momentum behind them too.
The Phocaeans have lost influential winger Luis Henrique to Inter Milan, but his replacement, fellow Brazilian Igor Paixao, scored 16 goals and provided 10 assists in the Eredivisie for Feyenoord last term and can fill the void left by his compatriot with ease.
Marseille enjoyed an unbeaten pre-season, beating Aston Villa 3-1 in their final friendly, and should carry that form into this campaign to finish second once again.
Tip 2 – Strasbourg to finish in the top three @ 12/1
The majority of Ligue 1 sides have spent their summer offloading players, with only four spending more money than they have received - PSG, Marseille, promoted Paris FC and, most notably, Strasbourg.
The latter enjoyed an excellent 2024-25 season, narrowly missing out on Europa League qualification on the final day, and the money spent by Liam Rosenior’s side suggests they are looking to better their seventh-place finish this time around.
It is also worth noting that 43 of their 57 points were earned in their final 20 games, hinting that they only improved as the season progressed.
Andrey Santos has returned to Chelsea - a club who share owners with Strasbourg - and will be a big miss and his midfield partner Habib Diarra has also departed, but Racing Club have recruited well, bringing in Mathis Amougo and Pape Demba to run the engine room.
Lucas Hogsberg is a promising centre-back and young forward Joaquin Panichelli netted 21 goals and provided eight assists for Mirandes last term.
Chelsea loanees Mike Penders, Kendry Paez and Mamdou Sarr should all play their part, too, but their best piece of business has been keeping hold of star striker Emanuel Emegha, who scored 14 Ligue 1 goals last term.
There is more to like about young, exciting Strasbourg and their forward-thinking manager Rosenior than their likely top-three rivals. Monaco are inconsistent while Nice, Lille and Lyon have all lost key figures over the summer.
Strasbourg ended the campaign stronger than all of those teams, too, suggesting they could be the team to back in the top-three beating this season.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
