Marseille vs PSG Prediction: De Zerbi’s side to fall short again
Last season’s top two in Ligue 1 meet on Sunday night, with PSG aiming to put nine points between them and one of their biggest domestic challengers.
Marseille have already fallen short in key tests this season, losing at Lyon and Rennes. Roberton De Zerbi’s side are also dealing with midweek European football for the first time in his reign, something that he struggled with at Brighton.
After a 2-1 defeat at Real Madrid in midweek, Marseille face another decisive test in this weekend’s Classique.
Team news
Marseille head into this clash with doubts around defender Nayef Aguerd, but they are able to welcome back former Burnley defender CJ Egan-Riley from suspension.
De Zerbi has been very flexible with his formation so far this season, but he’s unlikely to revert to a back-three, given how Atalanta struggled with that system at PSG in midweek. OM will be without Hamed Traore, while Amine Gouiri is expected to come into the side for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
PSG have some notable absentees, with Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue both still unavailable.
The visitors lost Joao Neves during their midweek Champions League win, which should lead to a reshuffle across their front six.
Goncalo Ramos should lead the line, flanked by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bradley Barcola. Warren Zaire-Emery is expected to take up Neves’ spot in the midfield three.
PSG to win @ 9/10
PSG have faced little resistance in Ligue 1 so far, winning each of their first four games. After opening with consecutive 1-0 victories, they really hit their groove, beating Toulouse 6-3 and Lens 2-0.
The champions were expected to struggle without Dembele and Doue up front, but they put those doubts to rest with a comprehensive win against Atalanta in the Champions League. They dominated throughout, picking up a 4-0 home win.
Marseille didn’t fare as well, losing 2-1 at Real Madrid thanks to two penalties from Kylian Mbappe. However, Real generated 2.14 non-penalty Expected Goals, so it was a deserved victory.
Marseille just don’t look up to mixing it with Europe’s elite. There are also doubts around their ability to compete on multiple fronts. De Zerbi’s intense approach faltered as he tried to juggle the Premier League and Europa League at Brighton. With little room to rest players in a week like this, PSG should prove too strong.
However, the visitors have kept four clean sheets from five, while both of Marseille’s losses have finished 1-0. PSG are good value to win at 9/10, but the double of PSG to win and under 2.5 goals is worth considering at 9/2.
Bradley Barcola over 1.5 shots on target @ 14/5
With Dembele and Doue out, Barcola is revelling in a bigger role for PSG. The Frenchman has had two shots on target in his last two games, scoring a brace against Lens in his last Ligue 1 game.
Ramos isn’t Enrique’s go-to man for the big occasion, so Barcola could step up in this key clash. The winger scored at OM last term, while he had the second-most shots on target for PSG in Ligue 1 last term with 38.
Barcola averaged 1.57 shots on target per 90, so in a key game with big names missing, he is a standout at 14/5 for two or more shots on target. Alternatively, he’s the same price to score anytime after scoring four times across his last five games for club and country.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation
