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GOLDEN GOALS MD17: ARSENAL TO LOSE GRIP ON TOP SPOT?

High-flying Aston Villa take on Manchester United on Sunday looking to cement their position as genuine title contenders.

The Villans’ run of 10 wins in 11 Premier League games has taken them from 18th to third and another here would surely set alarm bells ringing in London and Manchester.

Speaking of, Manchester City are second and face struggling West Ham at the Etihad on Matchday 17. Arsenal still lead the pack but are showing signs of faltering – a trip to Everton is not an easy game for Mikel Arteta’s Gunners.

Elsewhere, Brighton welcome Sunderland to the Amex for the first time in Premier League history, revitalised Leeds host Crystal Palace and there’s the small matter of Tottenham vs Liverpool in an action-packed festival of festive football.

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Here’s how we see things playing out on Matchday 17…

Brighton 1-1 Sunderland

What a week for Sunderland. Last weekend’s Tyne-Wear Derby triumph left Wearside bouncing and they head to the south coast to face Brighton in buoyant mood.

These two have never met in the top flight, with their sole meeting in the last 20 years being a 1-0 League Cup win for the Seagulls in 2011.

Brighton have only lost once at home this season, a 4-3 thriller against Aston Villa, while the eight-placed visitors haven’t won any of their last three on the road – though two of those were at Liverpool and Manchester City.

Few would have predicted the Black Cats to be guaranteed a spot in the top half at Christmas but, while goals have not flowed, they are defensively solid.

No one outside the top five has conceded fewer than their 17, while they have shipped more than two goals only once.

A stalemate looks the only way to go here. Brighton needed a last-minute equaliser against West Ham in the game prior to the Villa defeat, so they can certainly be caught out, while only a late own goal prevented Sunderland from winning at Anfield.

The Wearsiders have scored just four goals away from home, two of which were in a win at Stamford Bridge, so we aren’t expecting a deluge of goalmouth action here.

Indeed, only Burnley’s Martin Dubravka has made more saves than the 56 by Sunderland’s Robin Roefs, so how about the 5/1 for a draw and the Dutchman to make four or more saves here?

Manchester City 4-1 West Ham

There is an ominous glare to the Manchester City machine at the moment.

They are on a four-game winning run in the Premier League, scoring three or more goals in each of those matches.

They also have a pretty formidable record against the Hammers. The aggregate score across the last five meetings between these two reads an eye-watering 16-4.

The frightening Erling Haaland has scored five goals in his last two appearances against the London outfit, too. With four goals in his last four appearances and 17 from 16 league games, he looks a good bet to grab at least one goal here.

While West Ham have improved under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo, they have not kept a clean sheet since their 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest – when Nuno was in charge of them – at the beginning of the season.

They have shipped 32 goals this term; only Burnley and Wolves have conceded more.

All arrows point to a comprehensive home victory and 13/10 for City to win, Haaland to score and over 3.5 goals in the game makes a lot of sense.

Tottenham 1-1 Liverpool

This feels like a huge game for both managers.

Thomas Frank was seething in the post-match press conference after his side’s meek 3-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest last weekend, claiming there was a “hurricane inside him”.

His men are struggling to sustain pressure and create opportunities. They lie 17th in the table for xG, 17th for shot-creating actions, 17th for shots on target and 16th for total shots.

Liverpool, meanwhile, appear to have turned the tables on their disappointing season.

Four games unbeaten means the pressure on Arne Slot has abated somewhat, though they are not out of the woods yet if they want to challenge for a European spot.

With Mohamed Salah off to the African Cup of Nations, all eyes will be on Hugo Ekitike, who is proving Liverpool’s best signing of the season so far. He has 10 goals for the campaign and his double against Brighton on Golden Goals Matchday 16 was his second brace in as many league games.

Despite Spurs’ recent woes, they are absolutely capable of grabbing a scrappy point here.

But they won’t score many. In four of Tottenham's last five games, they have managed under 3.5 shots on target.

As such, a modest Bet Builder of Tottenham to score under 1.5 goals and register under 3.5 shots on target at odds of 6/5 carries considerable appeal.

Everton 1-1 Arsenal

Arsenal had a seven-point advantage over Manchester City on 23rd November as their derby win over Spurs seemed to make it their title to lose.

That gap is now just two points, and would have been wiped out were it not for a last-minute own goal from bottom-side Wolves on Matchday 16.

The performance against the Old Gold may cause concern in north London. They had just two shots on target, none in the first half, while Wolves scored both goals for them.

Playing badly and still winning, of course, can be a sign of champions but this Wolves side has just two points all season and had scored just once on the road before that game.

A trip to Everton next is not what Mikel Arteta would have wanted. He hasn’t lost to the team he made 209 appearances for in his last four games – but the Toffees are enjoying a good season under David Moyes.

Arteta has won six of 10 meetings with his former manager, although only one of those 10 was against Everton – a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park last season.

The last two clashes have been drawn and Arsenal have won just once on the blue half of Merseyside since 2017. We’re leaning toward a stalemate, which could cost them top spot.

Having conceded just three goals in their opening 10 games, the Gunners have shipped seven in their last six while Everton have drawn a blank just twice at the Hill Dickinson Stadium since taking up residency.

Jack Grealish has had nine shots on target so far in a season of rejuvenation – including one in two of his last three – so 10/1 for him to have one here in a score draw looks a smart play.

Leeds 1-1 Crystal Palace

It’s a strange one this.

On one hand, you’ve got a Leeds side unbeaten in three, fresh off an eye-catching win over Chelsea and back-to-back, hard-earned draws against Liverpool and Brentford – just enough to keep them three points above the drop.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin deserves a lot of that credit; with four goals in four games, he’s giving flashbacks to that 2020 Everton form under Carlo Ancelotti. On the other hand you have Crystal Palace – the current FA Cup holders and surprise owners of the best away record in the Premier League.

The Eagles are also competing in the Europa Conference League, which will take its toll eventually if Oliver Glasner continues to rely on the same players and exhausting counter-attacking style without rotation.

Is DCL the Premier League's in-form striker?

On paper, Palace have more than enough to see off Leeds but two days’ rest against a well-drilled home side with momentum? It’s got draw written all over it.

It’s tight margins that shape these games and, with Palace hitting the frame of the goal eight times already this season, don’t be surprised if they’re millimetres away again.

Both teams to score, Calvert-Lewin to have a shot on target and the Eagles to hit the woodwork makes this 6/1 Bet Builder a real one to watch if you’re looking to go beyond our 1-1 Golden Goals prediction.

Aston Villa 3-1 Manchester United

Revenge rarely comes gift-wrapped but Sunday at Villa Park might be the exception.

Aston Villa’s second run at the Champions League was well and truly dashed by the Red Devils on the final day of last season, but you’d be brave to bet against the most in-form team in all of Europe right now.

Unai Emery’s side are flying: nine wins on the bounce across all competitions has seen them turn early doubts into title-contending form from out of nowhere.

The Villans could barely buy a goal at one point but have scored 12 times in their last five alone.

Aston Villa's Title Winning Form

It’s a nightmare fixture for a United side still reeling from Monday’s chaotic 4-4 draw with Bournemouth, especially with key absences through AFCON leaving the squad stretched in attacking areas.

Luckily for the visitors, Bruno Fernandes has a Portuguese passport.

United’s ever-reliable captain has three goals in his last two and, like the Villans, has no issues with shooting from range even in the tightest of spaces.

We’re expecting a high-scoring game with Villa continuing their monumental run in dramatic fashion, making this 21/10 Bet Builder all the more appealing: over 2.5 goals, a goal in both halves and Fernandes to have a shot on target.

Why a goal in both halves? Six of Villa’s last seven and five of United’s last seven have seen just that. Enjoy.

Golden Goals Predictions

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