GOLDEN GOALS MATCHDAY 17: BIG WIN IN STORE FOR MANCHESTER CITY?
It's been quite the week, with Champions League and Europa League drama building up to a memorable weekend of Premier League football.
Can Aston Villa actually win the title? Is the Manchester City mini-blip over? Are Manchester United and Chelsea condemned to mid-table mediocrity already? What other questions will this weekend throw at us?
This gloriously febrile festive period continues apace – and we are at hand to help you find the winning formula for this weekend's Golden Goals.
Remember: if you can pick the correct six scorelines, you could win up to £1 million. You don't even have to get all six to earn something. If the jackpot isn't won, just get more scores correct than your BetMGM peers to win a share of our prizepool – that’s exactly what 11 of our players did by predicting four correct scores in our midweek Champions League special to split £5,000.
Let’s look ahead to Matchday 17…
Bournemouth vs Luton
Form (all competitions) Bournemouth: WWDWW Luton: LLLWL
It's all falling into place for Bournemouth and manager Andoni Iraola, whose team is beginning to tick in his image after a sticky opening few months on the job.
A stunning win over Manchester United at Old Trafford was no fluke – indeed, the scoreline flattered the Red Devils, who were comprehensively outplayed. The Cherries now top the form table with 13 points from five games, having scored 12 goals and conceded just three (for context, in their first 11 games they conceded 27).
In the post-match interviews, Iraola pinpointed the work of his defence as one of the reasons for the result: "We needed to know that the work-rate, the defensive consciousness, the togetherness to help each other because we had difficult duels."
Whatever ideas he is selling to his team, they are currently buying it. Take Lewis Cook, for example. He averages the highest ball recovery rate in the Premier League of players who have played 500 minutes or more. At the same time, Bournemouth have the fourth-highest ball recovery rate of any team in the league.
For the Hatters, their recent run has included a lot of what-ifs. While losing by just one goal to Arsenal and Manchester City, and leading in each match, shows they can mix it with the very best, both games could have been incredible boosts to squad morale.
Instead, they now sit adrift of safety in the bottom three, remain one of only two teams yet to keep a clean sheet and face a daunting trip to one of the league's form teams.
What’s more, they are conceding too many chances. They sit at rock bottom of the expected goals against (xGA) metric. This one can go to the Cherries.
Prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 Luton
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Form (all competitions) Manchester City: WWLDW Crystal Palace: LLDLL
Mini-crisis? What mini-crisis?
After a come-from-behind win over Luton and an authoritative victory against Red Star Belgrade – making them the first English club to win eight consecutive Champions League matches – a semblance of normalcy has been restored to the treble-winning Manchester City machine after four league games without a win.
Some concerns remain, though. Erling Haaland’s fitness is uncertain after missing the game against Luton due to a foot injury, while conceding 10 in your last five league games contributes to a general defensive uneasiness.
However, it's difficult to see the Citizens missing out on three points here given the dire form of Roy Hodgson's men.
True, Crystal Palace were good against Liverpool. The match momentum and expected goals (xG) suggest they should have gotten more from the game, which turned on the head of a pin after a controversial second yellow card for striker Jordan Ayew.
But there's just no masking it – Palace are in a rut and struggling to find the net. With 15 goals so far this season, only Sheffield United have fewer.
Unless there's an epic shock in store, this one will be a comfortable home win.
Prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Crystal Palace
Newcastle United vs Fulham
Form (all competitions) Newcastle United: LLLWD Fulham: WWLWL
Defeat at home to AC Milan in midweek meant Newcastle finished bottom of the Champions League 'Group of Death' and are out of Europe altogether.
While disappointing, there will be more immediate concerns about addressing a slump in form, which has seen them win just two of their previous seven games in all competitions.
In truth, Newcastle look out on their feet, which is less than ideal coming into the busy festive period. They are currently without up to 10 first-team players due to injury or suspension, including the influential Kieran Trippier, who misses this one after picking up a fifth yellow card of the season against Tottenham.
The Magpies have already lost six league games this season – that's more than the entirety of the previous campaign – but they are creating chances. Callum Wilson (1.19) and Alexander Isak (0.74) are first and fourth respectively in xG per 90 minutes this league season.
There's clicking… and then there's Fulham scoring 16 goals in four games.
Their turnaround is extraordinary. In a 3-2 win over Wolves, a 4-3 defeat to Liverpool and back-to-back 5-0 victories over Nottingham Forest and West Ham, they have scored more than double the amount they had managed in the previous 12 games (12 goals).
It is even more impressive when you consider they rank just 14th in the league for shot-creating actions.
Some of it may be down to the form of Raúl Jiménez, who has scored in successive Premier League games for the first time since doing it for Wolves in October 2020. He represents a real threat to Newcastle's fatigued defence.
Those results have seen the Cottagers steam up the table and they now sit just five points off the seventh-placed Magpies.
It’s a tough one to call but we will go with an entertaining score draw.
Prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Fulham
Arsenal vs Brighton
Form (all competitions) _Arsenal: DLWWW _ Brighton: TBC
After a last-minute Declan Rice winner against Luton the previous Tuesday, you could forgive Arsenal fans for dreaming of title glory already.
That result secured a four-game winning streak for the Gunners and a healthy six-point advantage over defending champions Manchester City.
But a week is a long time in football and defeat to Aston Villa coupled with results elsewhere mean they go into Matchday 17 second, with just four points separating the whole top four.
Brighton, meanwhile, continue to struggle domestically and have just two wins in their previous 10 Premier League games. Has European football scuppered a presumed tilt for the Champions League places this year?
They're nothing if not entertaining to watch though – both teams have scored in all of their league games so far.
By all accounts, this should be a cracking game and two wide players at the peak of their powers could have a real impact. Will Gabriel Martinelli or Karou Mitoma come out on top?
We're backing a narrow home win.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Brighton
Brentford vs Aston Villa
Form (all competitions) Brentford: LLWLL Aston Villa: TBC
A run of 15 wins in a row at Villa Park, two points from the peak, wins against Tottenham, Manchester City and Arsenal in recent weeks… is it time to talk about the ‘T’ word in the Midlands?
Undoubtedly, Aston Villa are in incredible form. In the calendar year, only defending champions Manchester City have more points than Unai Emery’s men (86 vs 78).
But there remain questions surrounding their away form; they only have three wins from eight on the road and Brentford is exactly the sort of banana skin that can turn title contenders into title pretenders.
Indeed, with just one win in four attempts over the Bees since they were promoted two seasons ago, the Villans won’t be counting any chickens just yet.
For their part, Brentford are in pitiful form with just one win in five. But they do have the most lethal player in the league in their ranks – from a certain point of view anyway.
Danish midfielder Mathias Jensen averages 0.43 goals per shot (scoring three goals from seven attempts) and is the club's joint second-top scorer in the league this season.
Given Aston Villa's away form and Brentford's good recent record in the head-to-heads, we are going with a score draw.
Prediction: Brentford 1-1 Aston Villa
West Ham vs Wolves
Form (all competitions) West Ham: TBC Wolves: DWLLW
Reports suggest that the West Ham squad was ravaged by illness in the lead-up to their 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Fulham in midweek, which means they get something of a pass.
But it is still less than ideal for manager David Moyes who, days after seeing his team land an excellent 2-1 victory away to Tottenham, witnessed a mauling at the hands of the Cottagers.
The Hammers are a hard team to pin down at the moment. They have some exciting players, are capable of eye-catching results and sit just six points off fifth with a promising ongoing Europa League campaign to boot.
However, the underlying stats betray them slightly. As the graphic above demonstrates, they are allowing goals consistently and are hardly setting the world alight at the other end either, with a team xG of 1.45 per 90 minutes, which ranks them in the bottom half of the division.
Meanwhile, Wolves are currently outperforming expectations under Gary O’Neil. They sit 13th in the table but are one of four teams on 19 points and have lost just three of their previous 10 matches.
This could be a cagey affair, judging by previous results between these two. Indeed, three of the last four meetings have seen just one goal scored. We hate to do it but this one gets the dreaded goalless draw prediction.
Prediction: West Ham 0-0 Wolves
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