BETMGM GOLDEN GOALS MD20: DANGER IN STORE FOR MAN CITY
Manchester City take on Chelsea in a spectacular Golden Goals Matchday 20 with the visitors looking for their first Premier League win over Pep Guardiola’s men since 2021.
Elsewhere at the top of the table Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest while Arsenal make the trip to the south coast to face Bournemouth.
At the bottom West Ham are the latest team to try and inflict misery on Wolves while struggling Burnley are away at Brighton.
There’s also the small matter of Leeds against Manchester United on Sunday afternoon, a match never short of drama.
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Here’s how we see things playing out on Matchday 20 (which, please note, has an earlier-than-usual 12.30pm deadline)…
Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest
This looks like an ominous trip over from the East Midlands for Nottingham Forest, who have definitely improved under Sean Dyche albeit without much consistency.
They have been impressive at times on the road, a 3-0 win at Liverpool and a vital three points at Wolves, but also shown vulnerability in defeat at Fulham and Everton.
Villa have won their last seven home games and lost only twice at Villa Park in this season and last season combined.
Forest also haven’t won here since 1994, when Dyche was playing for Chesterfield. We can’t see that changing here.
Villa are looking unstoppable at home and, even if they fall behind, no team has gained more Premier League points from a losing position this season anyway.
Both teams have scored in four of Villa’s seven home wins in a row. That’s a fair shout to happen again, even if it’s no repeat of the extraordinary 5-5 Championship draw in 2018.
Villa to win, both teams to score and Morgan Rogers to score or assist stands out on the card here at 9/2 shot is our Bet Builder for this one, as Villa’s charge continues.
Brighton 2-0 Burnley
Some hoodoos are destined to be broken and Brighton’s winless Premier League home record against Burnley feels primed to fall on Golden Goals Matchday 20.
The Seagulls have been formidable on their own patch this season – their solitary defeat came against an Aston Villa side who were arguably Europe's most in-form team at the time.
Historically a thorn in Brighton's side, this Clarets vintage is a little less potent.
They are defensively porous, conceding chances at a rate that gives them the highest expected goals against figure in the division.
That spells trouble against a Brighton team whose shot volume is bettered only by the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Burnley goalkeeper Martin Dubravka already averages well over three saves per game and will likely be busy again here.
Don’t be surprised if that’s the case early on, too; Brighton have scored six first-half goals in their nine Amex league games, plus another that was disallowed for good measure.
It makes a Bet Builder combining a home win and over 3.5 total saves for the Burnley keeper with at least one Brighton first-half goal look a very shrewd play at 11/5.
With Scott Parker’s attack the second-worst in the league in terms of xG, a 2-0 home win should comfortably see the Seagulls' somewhat unexpected curse lifted.
Wolves 1-1 West Ham
Wolves have just one point at Molineux this season, have scored seven goals and conceded 23 in what has been an utterly miserable campaign for the Old Gold faithful.
Visitors here West Ham, however, haven’t exactly set the world alight on the road.
The Hammers have just one away win all season – and that was back in August – and are actually one of the few sides that Wolves have managed to beat this season when the Midlands side won 3-2 at Molinuex in the EFL Cup.
The home side realistically are relegated in all but name, so in theory the points are more valuable to West Ham.
There is pride to play for, though, something Wolves defender Matt Doherty has already spoken about. And recent narrow defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal show that they do at least have some fight.
The Hammers’ dismal away record won’t fill fans full of confidence in this one and we’re tipping Wolves to get their second home point of the season in a game low on quality.
A draw and under 2.5 goals doesn’t make for a classic but, given how these two have performed so far, it’s a realistic selection at 14/5.
Bournemouth 1-3 Arsenal
The Cherries are in freefall.
Andoni Iraola is hoping his charges find a way to end a nine-game winless streak that stretches back to October.
Another pointless performance here, along with the potential loss of star player Antoine Semenyo in January, could see them morph from relegation outsiders to prime candidates for the drop.
The problems are clear for all to see. No team in Europe’s top five leagues has conceded more goals than the Cherries since the start of November. Defensively, they are quite simply struggling.
The Gunners are having to answer lots of questions in their quest for a long-awaited title but they have a good record against Bournemouth, winning seven of their last 10.
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They did lose both games to them last year but it’s difficult to see any other result than a comfortable victory for Mikel Arteta’s charges this time round.
Bukayo Saka has a good recent goalscoring record against Bournemouth, too, with two goals in his last three appearances against them.
Given the Cherries’ recent defensive woes and Saka’s exploits, backing Arsenal to score over 2.5 goals and Saka to score anytime at odds of 19/5 carries considerable weight.
Leeds 1-1 Manchester United
Leeds haven’t beaten Manchester United in the Premier League since 2002.
Their sole win since then was a 1-0 FA Cup triumph 16 years ago, almost to the day, when they were a League One side.
They will hope to be more competitive than many of the recent meetings since that famous day, which have included 6-2, 4-2 and 5-1 wins for the Red Devils.
Leeds, though, have been strong in recent weeks, especially at Elland Road.
Wins over Chelsea and Crystal Palace and a draw with Liverpool are their last three at home while, on the road, they have picked up important points at Brentford and Sunderland.
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With a firing Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Leeds will feel they can give anyone a game – but Manchester United have lost just once away from Old Trafford since September and that was at high-flying Aston Villa.
It’s hard to call this one, which makes the draw more appealing.
Calvert-Lewin has had six shots on target in his last three home games. As he looks to stake his World Cup claim don’t be surprised to see the 9/1 for him to have over 1.5 shots on target in a draw land.
Manchester City 1-2 Chelsea
The Manchester City juggernaut could e brought to a halt by a frustrating but talented Chelsea outfit here.
The Citizens have not lost to their London rivals since the Champions League final back in May 2021 – but there are a few signs that suggest to us there could be value in backing the visitors.
The hosts have played a succession of teams that are in the bottom half of the table or in a rut of form since losing to Newcastle last month. Chelsea represent a genuine test.
The Blues are struggling to maintain momentum, and talk of a title push has long been shelved, but they come alive for spurts in games.
In defeat to Aston Villa, the Blues entirely dominated the first half and deservedly led.
However, they allowed the surprise title challengers to get their noses in front during a slack second-half spell and couldn’t recover.
That result meant they had let 11 points slip from winning positions, more than any other team in the division.
If they can sustain their performance levels throughout the entirety of the 90 minutes, they have a real shot against a relatively untested City.
A Bet Builder of Chelsea to win, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at odds of 24/5 looks good if you want to boost those odds of an away win for Enzo Maresca and co.
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