Golden Goals Matchday 24: Burnley to feel Liverpool wrath
Goals, goals and more goals. Matchday 23 was the most goal-laden gameday in Premier League history, with 45 goals scored across 10 contests.
The five-game Saturday slate alone contained 26 goals, which was also a Premier League record.
While we can’t necessarily promise another matchday filled with quite that much goalmouth action, we can guarantee you will have another crack at winning our huge £1 million jackpot with Golden Goals.
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Let’s look under the bonnet of Matchday 24 and see what to expect…
Fulham vs Bournemouth
Fulham looked well on their way to grabbing a first league win of 2024 before falling victim to substitute David Datro Fofana and being forced to settle for one point in Lancashire against strugglers Burnley.
Marco Silva certainly felt it was two points dropped from his side, “It’s disappointing the way we lost the two points, and it was clear we lost two points”. It’s hard to argue the Portuguese’s point when you look at the match momentum graphic below which shows a prolonged spell of dominance from the Cottagers.
Bournemouth, similarly, earned a draw for their weekend’s efforts but the Cherries will not feel as aggrieved with another point on the board. Andoni Iraola’s side raced into a 1-0 lead after five minutes thanks to Justin Kluivert before being pegged back by a wonderful solo effort from Callum Hudson-Odoi.
Kluivert appears to be finding his footing since his summer move from AS Roma, netting two goals in his last four Premier League starts. One of those goals came in the last meeting against Fulham – a comfortable 3-0 win for Iraola’s men.
Neither of these sides is lighting up the form table – both sit within the bottom half over the last six fixtures with one win apiece across the last five fixtures – and they each enter this game with two draws in a row.
We reckon they make it a hat-trick with a tight score draw at Craven Cottage.
Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Bournemouth
Liverpool vs Burnley
So Liverpool are beatable. The Reds’ incredible run of 15 games without defeat in the Premier League came to an end as they succumbed to fellow title contenders Arsenal.
The most worrying part for Liverpool fans is that they looked second-best all over the pitch in that one. Indeed, Jurgen Klopp’s attack mustered a measly 0.54 xG against Arsenal – the lowest of their league campaign so far.
It could just be an anomaly considering that Jurgen Klopp’s side still leads the league in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (32.87) but we could finally be seeing the effects of Mohamed Salah’s absence. The Egyptian forward is still tied for top scorer in the division (14).
Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo had all proved to be capable replacements until the Arsenal game; Jota averages the second-highest xG per 90 behind only Erling Haaland.
There was a clear lack of cutting-edge against the Gunners but the plus side for Liverpool is that there aren’t many better teams to face in the Premier League when you need to bounce back in the goalscoring department than Burnley. Vincent Kompany’s men have conceded the second-most goals this season (45) and 11 over the last five fixtures.
Burnley seem to have found some inkling of a goalscoring threat in Fofana. The Ivorian Chelsea loanee has three goal contributions in two appearances for the Clarets, including a brace this past weekend against Fulham. That already makes him the joint-third-highest scorer of the season for the Turf Moor outfit.
Kompany and co. are desperate for wins – but it’s unlikely that they’ll get one here. Liverpool will have revenge on their mind after the Arsenal defeat and Burnley will pay the price. It should be a win for the home side – and a big one at that.
Prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Burnley
Luton vs Sheffield United
During last weekend’s Premier League goalfest Sheffield United drew a blank – on of only two Premier League teams to do so.
The Blades’ ineffectiveness in front of goal has been the story of their entire campaign. They are the only team in the division to average fewer than a goal per game, finding the net only 19 times in their 23 outings.
January addition Ben Brereton Diaz seemed to add some cutting edge to Chris Wilder’s forward line with two goals in his first two games for the club. That double slots him in as the third-highest scorer for Sheffield United and the most likely goal threat ahead of both Oli McBurnie and Cameron Archer who are each averaging under 0.5 goals per game.
It is hard for any forward to score chances with such little service though. United have the lowest amount of assists in the league with nine and Gustavo Hamer accounts for a third of those with his season tally of three.
Before the season, plenty expected Luton Town to have a similar bluntness in the attacking third but that hasn’t happened. Rob Edwards’s side rank midtable in goals scored – ahead of both Bournemouth and Fulham who occupy spots above them in the table.
The Hatters' threat from set-pieces has been their main source of success. They have achieved the second-most goals from dead balls this season with eight and are the most clinical team when it comes to scoring headers, where they sit level with title challengers Arsenal with 11.
It all makes for even better reading for those of a Luton persuasion when this week’s opponents have, coincidentally, conceded the joint-most goal-creating actions from dead balls this season.
This one can still be viewed as a proverbial six-pointer in the wider context of the season – but there is no ignoring the perception that Sheffield United already feel cut adrift at the bottom.
Luton, though, are edging ever closer to a historic season that ensures safety. For that reason, we’ll back the home side to seal another three points and extend their three-game unbeaten run to four.
Prediction: Luton 2-1 Sheffield United
Tottenham vs Brighton
Has there ever been a game that should guarantee goals like Spurs vs Brighton?
These two have an unquenchable appetite for attacking football, with both sides ranking in the top half for xG per 90 minutes. Tottenham hold a slight edge with an average of 2.0 per 90, while Brighton slot in just below them at 1.75.
The similarities between them do not end there with a pair of Brazilian frontmen stealing the headlines for each side. For Brighton, Joao Pedro has made an impressive start to 2024 with five goals in Brighton’s two FA Cup outings and he added another to his tally in the Premier League with his goal against Crystal Palace last weekend.
Tottenham fans will not have happy memories of the former Watford man either – the 22-year-old bagged a brace and an assist when the sides met in Brighton’s 4-2 win back in December.
However, Spurs have a samba star of their own in the reinvigorated Richarlison. Their number nine has flourished in recent weeks after a difficult start to life at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
His nine goals in his last eight matches have fired Ange Postecoglou’s side to five wins and two draws in that span – the only loss coming to Saturday’s opponents Brighton.
It’s defensively where both teams have glaring issues. Both rank in the bottom half of the league for clean sheets this campaign and the Seagulls have only held their opponents to a blank on two occasions this season, a record only Sheffield United ‘beat’.
We have already said it but it bears repeating: this game should guarantee goals. They both play on the front foot with a relentless press which can only mean excitement for the neutral. We’ll take the home side to win in a close but entertaining affair.
Prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Brighton
Wolves vs Brentford
On the subject of in-form Brazilians, Wolves forward Matheus Cunha snatched the spotlight from his compatriots over the weekend when he single-handedly destroyed Chelsea at Stamford Bridge with three goals in a comfortable 4-2 victory for Gary O’Neil’s side.
The Wolves manager himself could not have been more full of praise for his forward, saying: “He's a fantastic guy. Always had quality, we know he has that. He is so humble and hard-working, all I have worked on him with is his understanding of situations. A Premier League hat-trick speaks volumes of the improvements he's made.”
The former Atletico Madrid man has threatened to put together an extremely impressive goalscoring outing all season. He leads Wolves in xG with 8.33 and his nine goals throughout the season place him only behind Hwang Hee-Chan (10) in the team rankings.
Brentford also have attackers in the news – though it’s not quite for scoring goals. Instead, Neal Maupay is stealing headlines – when he’s not stealing celebrations – for his on-the-field antics with Kyle Walker while Ivan Toney is doing likewise with Thomas Frank prematurely announcing his likely departure in the summer transfer window.
Either way, Brentford need to start picking up points and fast. The Bees appear to have lost their sting with one win in the Premier League since 2nd December – a record worse than every other team except Sheffield United over that six-game span.
Unfortunately, they cannot take any solace in their record against this weekend’s opposition; the London outfit have not won against Wolves since 2021 and are possess the third-worst away record in the league.
Everything points to a Wolves win. The points will stay at Molineux.
Prediction: Wolves 2-1 Brentford
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle
Newcastle fans will be glad there has been an entire week between fixtures after the drama of last Saturday’s game against Luton.
The Magpies looked like they would breeze to a comfortable ninth home win of the season when they raced into a 1-0 lead after seven minutes… then 80 minutes of madness ensued and it ended in a 4-4 draw.
If we are taking the positives from the games, Eddie Howe’s men have well and truly got their goalscoring form back. They have scored 16 goals across the last six fixtures and are the most prolific goalscorers in the league outside the top five.
They do need to address their poor away form though. The three promoted teams and Brentford are the only sides with worse away records than the Magpies and all of them occupy places in the bottom six of the Premier League table.
Luckily Newcastle’s opponents this weekend do not have a home record to be proud of. Nottingham Forest have struggled at the City ground all season long, gathering only 12 points from a possible 33 on their patch.
This has not improved with the arrival of Nuno Espirito Santo either. The Portuguese tactician has only guided his men to one league victory in front of his home crowd since taking the job – a 2-1 win over Manchester United before New Year.
Forest have already shown they know how to beat Newcastle this season – with the 3-1 victory in the return fixture – however hat-trick hero that day Chris Wood is due for a spell on the sidelines.
Conversely, Newcastle feel like they are almost back to their best with their injury list easing. A third away win of the league season beckons here for them as a result.
Prediction: Forest 0-2 Newcastle
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