GOLDEN GOALS MATCHDAY 25: BACK MANCHESTER CITY TO CRUSH CHELSEA
The pressure is on at the top of the table – we could be in for the closest Premier League title race in years. Only in nine previous campaigns have two points separated the top three teams in the league at this stage of the season.
All of them have momentum but Arsenal's 6-0 victory away at West Ham last weekend was an eye-opener – they are a team in form and have put their rivals on notice.
At the bottom, the return of Ivan Toney has done the trick for Brentford. The Bees have been buzzing since his comeback, with two wins from their previous four and Toney bagging three of the eight goals they have scored in that time. They have conceded the fourth-most goals this season (44) and are looking vulnerable.
Plenty of storylines are on the docket this weekend, so let's take a deeper dive into the figures and help you land a potentially life-changing prize.
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Burnley vs Arsenal
Form (all competitions)
Burnley: LDLDL
Arsenal: WWWWL
Could there have been a worse time to play the Gunners? Probably not.
They are one of only two teams with a 100% win record in the Premier League since the turn of the year, a run in which they have scored 16 goals and conceded just twice.
What makes for more concerning reading for Vincent Kompany is Burnley’s home record against the Gunners. In the previous 10 matches they have hosted the North London side at Turf Moor they have failed to win, with eight of those games coming in the Premier League.
Only Chelsea have a better record against a team in the competition away from home (9 games also against Burnley).
It gets worse in that the Clarets are yet to win a home game against a side in the top 10 this season and could join an undesirable group of record-holders if they lose against the Gunners – they would be the joint-fastest team to accumulate 10 home defeats in a single season (13 games). Sunderland (2005-06), Huddersfield (2018-19), Sheffield United (2020-21) and Watford (2021-22) are the other teams with such an unwanted record.
They have the joint-lowest xG in the entire league and the second-most porous defence into the bargain. Don't be surprised to see a cricket score here… Arsenal could register another huge win.
Prediction: Burnley 0-5 Arsenal
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Form (all competitions)
Fulham: WDDLD
Aston Villa: LLWLD
Is this a bad patch for the Villans or symptomatic of something more serious? A run of just one win in five has turned potential title contenders into top-four challengers.
To be fair to Aston Villa, a glut of injury issues hasn't helped them. An interior cruciate ligament injury to Boubacar Kamara in the defeat to Manchester United meant he was the third player to suffer that injury this season, with Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia the others.
In Fulham they face a tricky opponent; the Cottagers have lost just one of their previous seven Premier League games at home, scoring 18 and conceding just six in that run.
However, Unai Emery's team have a great record against London sides. Indeed, they have won their previous nine consecutive games against teams from the capital. Only Liverpool have managed more (a run of 11 between March 2019 and June 2020).
Keep an eye out for Leon Bailey – the winger was in excellent form against Manchester United, causing Luke Shaw and then Victor Lindelof all sorts of bother. His form is reflected in the stats, as you can see above, with the Jamaican contributing a goal or assist almost every 90 minutes.
It’s a tough one to call but we will go with Aston Villa to shade it.
Prediction: Fulham 0-2 Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham
Form (all competitions)
Nottingham Forest: LWDLD
West Ham: LLDDL
Their recent managerial switch has yet to pay real dividends for Nottingham Forest. A famous home win against Manchester United aside, they have been spiralling worryingly and have now lost nine of their previous 13 Premier League matches.
Defensively, they continue to struggle in this competition with at least one goal conceded in each of their previous 13 games. Since they won promotion to the big time they have kept just 11 clean sheets – the fewest number of any team to remain in the league since the beginning of last season.
Dig a little deeper, though, and Nottingham Forest are actually performing well in the expected goals against metric (xGA). They are only behind Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Brentford and Everton in terms of limiting opposing teams’ shots.
Meanwhile, West Ham are in trouble. They lost 6-0 at home to Arsenal on Matchday 24 and have yet to win a league game this calendar year. They have conceded nine goals in their previous two games, as many as the eight combined before them.
Given the European trophy boss David Moyes won last year there is a feeling he has credit left in the bank, especially given the Hammers are still only five points behind Manchester United in sixth.
Fans are reportedly becoming restless and he needs to turn it around soon – that won’t happen quite yet though. Score draw.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1- 1 West Ham
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Form (all competitions)
Newcastle: WDWWL
Bournemouth: LDDWL
It feels like a long time ago when Kieran Trippier had a stand-up argument with a fan pitchside after his side came to grief against Bournemouth on the South Coast.
While Newcastle had been struggling, the Cherries were flying. But that was then, this is now and the tide has been turning of late. Momentum is with Eddie Howe's charges and this could be the time he gets one over on his old team as Newcastle boss. In the three games he's faced since taking charge on Tyneside, they have managed just two draws and one defeat.
This could come down to a battle of the leading men. Alexander Isak has hit 10 goals in 17 games in the league and 14 goals in total while he boasts a 70% shot accuracy and mixes it with the best for shots on target per 90 minutes.
With Callum Wilson reportedly out for 12 weeks Isak, who could be involved against the Cherries as he steps up his own return from injury, will have to take on a lot of the heavy lifting.
Bournemouth have their own main man; Dominic Solanke has been directly involved in 15 Premier League goals (13 goals, two assists) to register his most impressive top-flight campaign to date.
However, after a burst of mid-season form, the Cherries are slipping back down the table again after taking just two points from a possible five.
As such, this one will go to the hosts.
Prediction: Newcastle 2-0 Bournemouth
Tottenham vs Wolves
Form (all competitions)
Tottenham WDWLD
Wolves: LWLWD
Tottenham are finding their groove again. A phenomenal last-minute Brennan Johnson winner against Brighton on Matchday 24 completed a comeback win and lifted Spurs above Aston Villa into the Champions League places in what felt like a symbolic moment.
Everyone recognises the entertaining football they play under Ange Postecoglou but there have been criticisms, especially early on in the season, that they try to walk the ball into the net rather than shoot.
Only Arsenal (37.1) average more touches in the opposition penalty area than Tottenham (34.5) but despite allegations of wasteful finishing they are still averaging more than two goals a game – a testament to the exciting, buccaneering football they play.
Indeed, you would have to go back to March 2023 to find the last time they failed to score a goal in a Premier League game – a 1-0 defeat to Wolves – a run stretching back 36 matches.
Wolves, meanwhile, continue to outdo expectations and are seeking their first league double over Tottenham since the 2009-10 season.
A disappointing home defeat to Brentford won't detract from the incredible job Gary O'Neil has done with this team since taking over, with European football remaining a distinct possibility.
Keep an eye out for the electric Pedro Neto - the Portuguese winger has six goal involvements in his last six away Premier League games (1 goal, 5 assists). He has been linked with a move away from Molineux of late, with Manchester United and Arsenal among prospective suitors. He’s a real threat.
Expect goals in this one for sure – but Postecoglou’s men will edge it in the end.
Prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Wolves
Manchester City vs Chelsea
Form (all competitions)
Manchester City WWWWW
Chelsea: WWLLD
Arguably the game of the weekend sees defending champions Manchester City aiming to keep the pressure on with a win over the free-spending – and, at times, free-falling – Chelsea.
The signs look ominous for Mauricio Pochettino's outfit. City look like they are on one of those runs where they become unstoppable and sweep all before them. In real terms that means they have won their last 11 games with a match against Crystal Palace in mid-December the last time they dropped any points.
What is worse for the London club is the return to full fitness of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne – the latter has assisted a goal in all four of Manchester City's league games in 2024 despite only starting two of them.
If he bags another assist against the Blues, he will become just the 11th player in Premier League history to register an assist in five consecutive games.
The recent history of this fixture makes for grim reading for Chelsea. They have kept just one clean sheet in 19 Premier League matches against Manchester City while Pochettino has lost more matches against a Pep Guardiola team (13) than any other.
A win here would significantly ease the pressure on the Argentinian, who felt the full force of disdain from Chelsea fans in the aftermath of their home defeat to Wolves two weeks ago. Boos and anti-Pochettino chants were reported at Stamford Bridge that day.
Can he prove the doubters wrong? Possibly, but not at the Etihad this week.
Prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Chelsea
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