GOLDEN GOALS MATCHDAY 29: MANCHESTER UNITED'S SEASON-DEFINER?

All eyes were on the top of the table on Matchday 28 as Liverpool met Manchester City in an instant classic at Anfield. The two sides fought to a draw and left Arsenal as the real winners, with the Gunners going top of the table on goal difference.

But with both City and Liverpool occupied with FA Cup action, all eyes turn to the bottom half of the Premier League. Four of the bottom six take on each other this weekend as Burnley host Brentford and Luton welcome Nottingham Forest to Kenilworth Road.

Which sides are going to get vital victories in these six-pointers? Let’s delve deeper into Matchday 29 and, remember, if you can pick the six correct scorelines you could win up to £2 million.

Burnley vs Brentford

Form (all competitions) Burnley: DLLLL Brentford: LDLLL

The first relegation six-pointer on the docket this weekend pits Burnley against Brentford. Both of these sides enter this one on a dreadful run of form – neither side has won in the last five Premier League outings.

Burnley seemed to have three points within their grasp last weekend at West Ham before the former Claret Danny Ings struck an injury-time leveller, leaving them without a league win since December 23rd, away at Fulham.

Vincent Kompany’s side did show some improvement in the goalscoring department though. They ended a run of three consecutive games without finding the net when David Datro Fofana gave them an early lead. His third goal since his January loan move puts him as the joint-second-highest scorer in the Burnley side.

The Chelsea loanee has undoubtedly offered Burnley a threat at the top end of the pitch, albeit they were offering next to nothing previously. Since his arrival, he’s averaging 0.69 goal contributions per game, which is higher than the likes of Jarrod Bowen and Bryan Mbeumo.

Are Brentford really in trouble? Quite simply, yes. The Bees may sit five points above the drop zone but they are in free fall. Since a narrow 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest on January 20th, they’ve achieved one win in the last eight Premier League matches.

Outside of the bottom three, Thomas Frank’s side are the worst defensively, conceding 52 goals across the 28 matchdays so far. That’s already six more than they conceded during the entirety of the last campaign.

Fortunately, they are coming up against a leakier defence than their own this weekend. Good news for the in-form Yoane Wissa. The Congolese frontman has netted in three consecutive games. Brentford have to get back on track soon and they should be able to do it here. Burnley have only picked up five points at home all season (one win and two draws), so this one has to be an away win.

Prediction: Burnley 1-3 Brentford

Luton vs Nottingham Forest

Form (all competitions) Luton: LDLLL Nottingham Forest: LLLWL

If games ended after 45 minutes, we’d have a very different feeling about Luton heading into this one.

Rob Edwards’ side flew into a 3-0 lead at the Vitality on Wednesday night, with goals from Tahith Chong, Chiedozie Ogbene, and Ross Barkley seemingly wrapping up the points in the first half.

However, Luton managed to throw away a vital win as Bournemouth surged from behind to come out 4-3 winners in one of the games of the season so far. That is now 19 points Luton have dropped from a winning position in the league (which ranks joint-fourth-worst) and another case of so close yet so far for the Hatters.

Despite the capitulation on the south coast, the rejuvenated Barkley proved he was a shrewd acquisition once again. Since arriving in the summer, he has become the source of creativity in Luton’s midfield, leading the team in progressive passes (117) and passes into the final third (96).

Nottingham Forest are yearning for such creativity in recent weeks. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men haven’t found the net in their last three outings in all competitions and Saturday’s match with Brighton had the third-lowest combined xG of the season so far.

This loss at the Amex also extended their dismal run to 12 defeats in the last 17 matches; only Brentford have suffered more defeats over the same period.

Luton don’t have an issue scoring goals – they have netted more than sixth-placed Manchester United. They do have an issue conceding them, which is why we can’t back them to get a home win here and we’re going for a point apiece in this six-pointer.

Prediction: Luton 2-2 Nottingham Forest

Fulham vs Tottenham

Form (all competitions) Fulham: LWWLW Tottenham Hotspur: WWLWD

One small step for Spurs, one giant leap toward top four.

Last weekend might have been the biggest result of Ange Postecoglou’s short tenure at Tottenham. They ran riot at Villa Park in their 4-0 victory, lifting themselves to two points behind their adversaries with a game in hand.

The rout was kickstarted by James Maddison who’s finally returning to his best after an ankle injury that sidelined him for 10 matches. His goal took his goal contribution tally to 12 for the season in 17 games - an average of 0.7 contributions per game which is the best of his career so far.

Spurs’ insatiable appetite for goals on Sunday continued through the likes of Brennan Johnson, Timo Werner, and the imperial Son Heung-min. Son’s 91st-minute finish was his 14th of the season, slotting him above North London rival Bukayo Saka and alongside Bowen in the goalscoring standings.

Both Maddison and Son netted in the reverse fixture against Fulham – could this be a good omen for this weekend?

After a few impressive results on the spin, Fulham finally faltered last weekend against a clinical, yet injury-stricken, Wolves side. Of the three shots on target Wolves had, two of them found their way into the back of the net.

On a positive note, Alex Iwobi continued his impressive form against the Molineux outfit as he notched his fifth goal against them – more than he has against any other opponent.

That might be where the good news ends for the Cottagers, though. Fulham haven’t won against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League since the 23rd of March 2013 when former Spurs striker Dimitar Berbatov was on the scoresheet in a 1-0 win.

They won’t end that winless run here, Tottenham should triumph comfortably.

Prediction: Fulham 1-3 Tottenham

West Ham vs Aston Villa

Form (all competitions) West Ham: WDLWW Aston Villa: WLDWW

A claret clash of the highest order is in store when an improving West Ham welcome a stuttering, injury-stricken and John McGinn-less Aston Villa.

We begin with a look at how the visitors are shaping up. The 4-0 defeat to Tottenham last weekend was made all the more damaging after a poor tackle from McGinn on Spurs left-back Destiny Udogie saw the Scotsman sent off. He will now miss three games.

In truth, Tottenham were much the better side on the day and could have won by more. The match momentum graphic demonstrates as much:

It was the third home defeat in four games for the Villans. Previously, Unai Emery had lost three games in his first 23 home matches in charge.

However, away from Villa Park, they are proving effective. In their previous three games on the road, they have secured the maximum of nine points and scored 10 goals, of which Ollie Watkins claimed five.

Can Watkins do it again at the London Stadium? He scored there last year and he will be encouraged by the recent leaky nature of West Ham’s defence. The Hammers have kept just one clean sheet in five home games while conceding 10 goals in the process, including a chastening 6-0 defeat to title hopefuls Arsenal.

However, after a run of eight games without a win, David Moyes’ men have been turning it around of late. Seven points from an available nine means they're still in the hunt for a spot in Europe next year.

Tough to call this one. Score draw.

Prediction: West Ham 2-2 Aston Villa

Manchester City vs Newcastle

Form (all competitions) Manchester City: DWWWW Newcastle: LWWLD

When the FA Cup draw pitted the Magpies against the FA Cup holders, there may have been a collective groan across Tyneside. Even the most optimistic fan would concede their cup ambitions look somewhat stymied against Pep Guardiola's juggernauts.

However, is a chink appearing in the armour?

During Matchday 28, Liverpool gave every team a blueprint on how to cause some serious issues for Manchester City. They could not live with the intensity of the press and the Reds managed 12 attempts on goal in the second half alone, the most City have conceded in a single half of football since they faced Brighton back in May 2021.

Remarkably, the champions and treble-winners have kept just one clean sheet in their previous seven in all competitions. They are, to an extent, shipping goals but appear to be getting away with it most of the time due to the opposition's inability to sustain pressure on the ball and their own quality at the other end.

However, it's likely Newcastle will use the pace of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon on the wings to hurt the Citizens rather than the all-action pressing employed by Jurgen Klopp.

We are backing a home win.

Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Newcastle

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Form (all competitions) Manchester United: WLWLW Liverpool: WDWWW

Shedding any positive light on Manchester United this season is a tough task.

They have a neutral goal difference. They are one of only four teams outside the relegation zone to score fewer than 40 goals in the league (39, relegation candidates Luton have managed two more). They concede, on average, 16.6 shots on goal per 90 minutes which is the third-most in the Premier League.

That last statistic is even more concerning when you consider how many shots Liverpool have averaged in 90 minutes this season – 19.3, the most in the league.

While the race for the top four is still ongoing, most Manchester United fans likely accept that the chance of Champions League football next year is slim. A deep cup run may buy Erik ten Hag some time, low-key making this one of his tenure's biggest games.

On current form, though, this one will be an away win.

Prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Liverpool

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