BETMGM GOLDEN GOALS MD33: NEWCASTLE TO SPOIL VILLA EURO PUSH
Another weekend of Premier League drama awaits – and with £1 million on the line there’s more than just pride at stake on Golden Goals Matchday 33.
As well as a pivotal European battle between Aston Villa and Newcastle, Leicester try to delay the inevitable one match longer against league leaders Liverpool with the Reds poised to win the title if Arsenal lose to Ipswich.
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Fancy a go? We’ve picked our way through the data, form and fixtures to offer our take on this week’s Premier League action to help you along the way. Here’s how we see Matchday 33 playing out…
West Ham 2-2 Southampton
History suggests we’re in for a lively encounter as 17th plays 20th.
Ten of West Ham’s last 11 home meetings with Southampton have featured at least three goals – with both defences leaking, there’s little reason to expect a cagey affair this time round either.
The Hammers average 1.35 xG per 90 minutes at home and have scored in 13 of 16 matches at the London Stadium this season. Jarrod Bowen remains their most reliable threat with eight goals, including four strikes on home turf and an away winner in the reverse fixture in December.
Southampton, already relegated, have struggled defensively with a league-high 77 goals conceded. However, they have managed to find the net in six of their last seven away matches, suggesting they can still pose an attacking threat.
West Ham midfielder James Ward-Prowse, facing the club he represented for 12 years, will be eager to make an impact and his set-piece expertise could prove pivotal.
With neither side keeping clean sheets and both showing flashes of attacking intent, a score draw is on the menu at the London Stadium.
Everton 1-3 Manchester City
Everton’s recent record against Manchester City doesn’t make for easy reading: 13 defeats and two draws from their last 15 league meetings.
Their last win? A 4-0 rout under Ronald Koeman in 2017. Current Toffees manager David Moyes hasn’t had any more joy – he's gone 15 games without beating City.
Yet Everton’s 1-0 win over Champions League-chasing Nottingham Forest was impressive and they haven’t conceded more than one goal in a game since their 2-2 home draw with Manchester United in February.
It’s difficult to see how they can stem the tide this time round, though.
Despite a wretched campaign by their standards, City have been scoring freely. They have already reached 102 goals in all competitions for the 12th consecutive campaign.
January arrival Omar Marmoush has been central to that. The Egyptian has six goals in 10 appearances and recorded 15 shots on target in the process, seven more than any of his team-mates in that span.
With top scorer Erling Haaland still sidelined, Marmoush to score anytime, City to win and over 3.5 goals in the game comes in at 13/2.
The Citizens have lost just one of their last eight as they push for top four – that will become one of their last nine on Golden Goals Matchday 33.
Crystal Palace 2-1 Bournemouth
A stunning run of Crystal Palace form came to a halt last weekend in a 5-2 defeat at Manchester City – despite the Eagles surging into a 2-0 lead.
It was another sharp attacking display from Oliver Glasner’s side, who have been finding the net with remarkable regularity with 10 goals across their last five games.
Set-pieces have been a major weapon. Palace lead the Premier League with 15 non-penalty goals from dead-ball situations – their highest tally since 2015/16.
If it’s not from a corner, it’s likely coming from Jean-Philippe Mateta. The Frenchman has been electric at Selhurst Park, scoring 18 goals in 22 home appearances under Glasner – the most of any Palace player at home under a single manager.
He was subbed at half-time in the City defeat and could return fresh this weekend. The Frenchman is priced at 17/5 to score the opener while both teams to score, over 2.5 goals in the game and Mateta first goalscorer is 8/1.
Bournemouth’s European charge has stalled with one win in seven. They have scored 32 away goals – second only to Liverpool – but are winless in their last 10 in London since a 2-0 victory over Palace in 2023.
Both teams will score but Palace will edge it.
Aston Villa 2-3 Newcastle
The main event of Matchday 33 features two teams with Europe once again in their sights.
What’s more, it’s winning streak versus winning streak with Villa and Newcastle picking up all three points in their last four and five top-flight fixtures respectively.
While many anticipate a closely contested draw between two of the Premier League’s best, we see it differently.
Villa may well find themselves on the losing side of a brawling back-and-forth game.
Unai Emery’s men have lost five of the last six league meetings against Newcastle; the one exception being a 3-0 win over two years ago.
The Magpies have had their number for a while now and aren’t shy on goals either, scoring three or more on the last three occasions against Villa.
Instrumental to his team's success this season has been Jacob Murphy. With 10 assists the winger has the most for Newcastle this campaign while only Mohamed Salah has more in the division.
For those confident in Eddie Howe’s charges a Newcastle win, both teams to score and Murphy to have an assist is currently a tempting 17/1.
All teams have their final boss. Unfortunately for Aston Villa, theirs is Newcastle.
Ipswich 0-2 Arsenal
The last time Ipswich faced a team from the capital, they gave away a two-goal lead.
Come Sunday, they’ll be lucky to have any chances on goal if their lacklustre display at the Emirates is anything to go by.
The Tractor Boys registered zero shots on target in a 1-0 defeat against Arsenal in December in arguably their worst performance of the season.
Not making their mark has spoiled much of Ipswich’s long-awaited return to the top flight; they are 18th not only in the table but for overall shots on target this season with 112, trailing only already-relegated Southampton and soon-to-join-them Leicester.
They are also leaking goals left, right and centre and sit third for most goals conceded this season behind – you guessed it – Southampton and Leicester.
While Mikel Arteta and co. are without Havertz this time, they do have a secret weapon in makeshift striker Mikel Merino.
The Spain international has six Premier League goals this season and plays a key role in our suggested Bet Builder for the game too: Arsenal to win, Ipswich under 0.5 goals and Merino over 1.5 shots on target is available at 13/2.
With Ipswich conceding an average of 2.09 goals per match and the Gunners conceding fewer than one per game on average, the scoreline almost writes itself.
A 2-0 win for the visitors.
Leicester 1-3 Liverpool
Leicester’s return to the Premier League has been brutal.
With just 18 points from 32 matches, the reality of relegation is fast closing in on Ruud van Nistelrooy’s men. It could be confirmed in this very match.
The Foxes have struggled at both ends, scoring just 27 goals while conceding 72 – they possess the joint-worst attack at home in the division and the second-worst defence overall.
At the King Power they have lost 11 of 16, including heavy defeats to Brentford, Newcastle and Manchester United.
In contrast, Liverpool are top of the table and could confirm a record-equalling 20th top-flight title in the East Midlands if Arsenal lose to Ipswich and the Reds add three points to their existing 76.
It’s true Arne Slot’s side have been off-piste in recent weeks with losses to PSG, Newcastle and Fulham surrounding underwhelming wins over Everton and West Ham.
But away from home the champions-elect retain the best record in the division with 35 points from 16 matches while scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Keep an eye out in particular for Curtis Jones: the midfielder has netted three times in his last two appearances against Leicester and has started five of the last six league games.
That blend of form, firepower and familiarity makes Jones to score or assist, Liverpool half-time/full-time and the Reds to score over 2.5 goals at 9/2 one to watch here.
The Reds demolished Leicester 3-1 in the return fixture at Anfield on Boxing Day – expect the same on Easter Sunday.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change. Please note: This week's Golden Goals deadline is Saturday 17th April, 15:00. Opt-in is required and you can find out more here.
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