GOLDEN GOALS MATCHDAY 33: VITAL VICTORY FOR ARSENAL IN TITLE RACE
This memorable Premier League title race took another turn last weekend as Arsenal returned to the top of the tree. The Gunners impressively dispatched Brighton with a 3-0 victory at the Amex, while Manchester City kept the pressure on with a 4-2 win over Crystal Palace.
Liverpool, however, stumbled at Old Trafford. The Merseyside outfit looked like they were about to stroll to a comfortable victory over their arch-rivals when they dominated the first half but some sloppy defending from young Jarell Quansah gave Manchester United a lifeline.
A stunning finish from Kobbie Mainoo and a penalty from Mohamed Salah meant this Sunday classic ended all square, snatching the title race out of Liverpool’s grasp in the process.
All three title contenders feature in the BetMGM Golden Goals Matchday 33 fixture list this weekend. Let’s take a closer look at all six matches and, remember, if you can pick the six correct scorelines you could win up to £2 million. Find out more here.
Brentford vs Sheffield United
Form (all competitions) Brentford: DDDLL Sheffield United: DLDDL
Brentford’s survival in the Premier League will likely be decided in the next three weeks.
Across those 21 days, they face three of the teams that currently occupy the bottom five – Luton, Everton and, first up this weekend, Sheffield United.
A win against the Blades would certainly ease concerns of a drop into the Championship but three points has been hard to come by lately for Thomas Frank’s side; his team hasn’t tasted victory since a 2-0 away win against Wolves at Molineux in February.
They were only 10 minutes away from breaking their unwanted eight-game winless run in the Premier League when they were leading at Villa Park with the in-form Yoane Wissa and the returning Bryan Mbeumo leading the way.
The Cameroonian found the net on his first start since 6th December against Brighton and took his tally to eight for the season in only 19 outings. His average of 0.51 goals per 90 minutes leads the way for the Bees ahead of Neal Maupay (0.37), Ivan Toney, Kevin Schade and Wissa (all 0.33).
Mbeumo’s impressive goals per 90 minutes record slightly edges Sheffield United’s Oli McBurnie, who has found his goalscoring boots as of late. The Scottish frontman has scored in four of his last five home appearances – including a 92nd-minute equaliser against Chelsea this past weekend.
Although McBurnie is finding the net more frequently than any other Blades player, their defence is conceding more than any other in the Premier League. Chelsea’s two goals on Matchday 32 were the 81st and 82nd conceded by Sheffield United this season.
For context, they are only eight goals away from allowing more than the infamous 2007-08 Derby County team and becoming the worst backline across a 38-game campaign in Premier League history.
To add insult to injury ahead of this weekend’s fixture, Sheffield United have only one away win all season and haven’t beaten Brentford since 2013 when both sides were in League One.
There’s only one way this should go, Brentford win.
Prediction: Brentford 3-1 Sheffield United
Manchester City vs Luton
Form (all competitions) Manchester City: DWWDD Luton: WLLDL
Luton Town must have nightmares about playing away from Kenilworth Road.
The Hatters have been winless on the road since Boxing Day when they toppled Sheffield United at Bramall Lane. Since then Luton have picked up three points from a possible 21 on their travels.
They are also much more generous defensively when not playing in Bedfordshire. Luton have the worst away defence in the league with 38 goals conceded in 16 games, three more than joint-second-worst Fulham and Sheffield United.
However, they enter this fixture buoyed by a first victory since January over Bournemouth on Matchday 32. Will they extend their form and pull off the shock of the season with a win over the champions? It feels like an impossible ask.
Manchester City are slowly going about their business during the run-in. They may have faltered against the ‘top six’ this campaign, which could be due to their openness at the back from counter-attacks. City are happy to dominate possession but they are susceptible in the turnover battle, conceding the joint-most goals from counters this season (seven)
However, they are dismantling the teams outside of it with relative ease – Crystal Palace became the latest victims in a 4-2 defeat last time out.
Kevin De Bruyne stole the spotlight in that one, reaching a century of goals for the Citizens with a brace either side of half-time. He also registered his sixth assist since returning from injury, placing him atop the league in assists per 90 minutes in the process.
Before De Bruyne’s midfield masterclass, Phil Foden has rightly been the City player hogging the headlines with six goals in his last five outings for Pep Guardiola’s side. He was benched against Palace but it wouldn’t be a surprise for him to impact proceedings if he starts in this one, much like he did with his beautiful long-range strike against Real Madrid on Tuesday.
Both sides are in desperate need of three points but there is surely only one winner in this one. The blue side of Manchester will be at their ruthless best and resign Luton to another week in the bottom three.
Prediction: Manchester City 4-1 Luton
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
Form (all competitions) Nottingham Forest: LWDDL Wolves: LDLWL
Wolves feel like they are rolling over the Premier League finish line with multiple injuries and nothing much to play for since being knocked out of the FA Cup by Midlands rivals Coventry a few weeks ago.
However, amid the pedestrian performances against West Ham, Burnley and Aston Villa has been the enigmatic Rayan Ait-Nouri. The left-back has been asked to play further up the pitch due to Wolves’ medical misfortune but the Algerian has thrived in his new role.
He ranks second among Wolves players in successful dribbles this season with 41 – 11 ahead of highly-regarded team-mate Pedro Neto and only three behind Brazilian forward Matheus Cunha.
Even with Ait-Nouri’s imperious form, Wolves have seriously struggled as of late with no wins in their last three, their joint-worst run of form so far this campaign.
Nottingham Forest have always been in the conversation when mentioning disappointing form in 2024. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have lost seven games so far since the turn of the year, only Burnley and Sheffield United can ‘better’ that unwanted record.
There have been a few catalysts for that but Forest’s inability to hold on to a lead might be the primary reason. Since the start of last season they have dropped 48 points from winning positions, more than any other Premier League side.
Despite their tumultuous campaign, Espirito Santo has gotten a tune out of New Zealand international Chris Wood. He netted his 12th goal of the season against Tottenham Hotspur last weekend and has a favourable record against this weekend’s opponents.
Wood’s first Premier League hat-trick came against Wolves back in April 2021 and he has scored six goals in total against the Midlands club – he can only boast a better record against West Ham United (seven).
Nottingham Forest are searching for consecutive home wins for the first time since they achieved four straight between April and August last year but we don’t see it happening here. There will be goals though.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Wolves
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Form (all competitions) Liverpool: LDWWD Crystal Palace: LLDDL
Liverpool were in pole position in the Premier League title race when they went to Old Trafford on Sunday and, based on the balance of play, they should still have it in their hands now.
However, like Steven Gerrard in 2014, they slipped up. The 2-2 draw with Manchester United might not have the same heartbreaking implications that Gerrard’s stumble did a decade ago but it was a huge time to falter nonetheless.
They only have themselves to blame. Jurgen Klopp’s men dominated the game for large parts, racking up an xG of 3.57 compared to Manchester United’s 0.71. This continues a worrying trend for Liverpool of underperforming their xG.
Across the season, the Reds are the third-worst team in xG underperformance. Only Sheffield United, Chelsea, Brentford and Merseyside rivals Everton are more wasteful. Some of the blame does have to fall at the feet of the polarising Darwin Nunez who, despite registering 11 goals this term, has underperformed his xG by almost four.
Fortunately for the Liverpool offensive players, they face a generous defence in Crystal Palace on Matchday 33. The Eagles have conceded around 10 goals more than expected in the Premier League (54 goals conceded, 44.3 xG against). Only Sheffield United have a worse differential.
They are notching goals at the other end, though. Oliver Glasner’s group have scored in nine of the last 10 Premier League matches, with Jean-Philippe Mateta experiencing a rich vein of form with four goals in his last six matches.
He opened the scoring when these sides met in the reverse fixture and he would be the first Palace player to score home and away against Liverpool since Dwight Gayle – in that ill-fated 2013-14 season under Brendan Rodgers – if he found the net this weekend.
Palace are getting goals under Glasner but they are not getting wins. Will that trend change at Anfield? It’s unlikely. Liverpool should do what title rivals City did last weekend: win comfortably.
Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace
West Ham vs Fulham
Form (all competitions) West Ham: LWDLD Fulham: LLDWL
Fulham are the epitome of inconsistency in 2024. They’ve rallied to stellar victories against Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Arsenal but have picked up just one point from a possible nine against Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United in the last three.
One of those aforementioned impressive results came against this weekend’s opponents when the Cottagers thumped five past David Moyes’ West Ham outfit in December.
Rodrigo Muniz was not on the scoresheet that day but the Brazilian has been enjoying a purple patch ever since. He scored his first goal in February and, since then, Muniz has netted eight goals in the Premier League with only Foden scoring more in that time. It should be noted, though, that only two of those eight have come away from Craven Cottage.
He will fancy his chances this weekend against a defence that seems allergic to clean sheets. West Ham are on a 12-game stretch without forcing their opponent to draw a blank – the third-worst in the Premier League behind the bottom two (Burnley and Sheffield United).
It explains why the Hammers have had to show their powers of recovery in multiple games this season. They’ve won 19 points from losing positions this campaign, the most they’ve ever gained in a single season.
West Ham are still in the hunt for Europa League football next season, while Fulham are virtually on the beach with neither continental football nor relegation a possibility. For that reason we are backing West Ham to win and extend their winning run at home to the Cottagers to 13 matches.
Prediction: West Ham 2-1 Fulham
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Form (all competitions) Arsenal: DWWDW Aston Villa: WDLWD
Aston Villa’s grip on the top four has loosened after a disappointing 3-3 draw at Villa Park last weekend. It was another example of their worrying trend of conceding goals – they’ve registered one clean sheet in the last nine league matches.
Now they travel to one of the Premier League’s most potent attacks. Bukayo Saka has been in scintillating form for the Gunners with 11 goal contributions in his last 11 league matches while Kai Havertz has been directly involved in nine goals in his last seven games domestically (five goals and four assists).
Leandro Trossard has been the one garnering the most praise in recent outings. The former Brighton man scored his eighth of the campaign against his former club last Saturday when he came off the bench, his fourth goal of the season as a substitute before adding another off the bench against Bayern Munich in the Champions League in midweek. Only the imperious Olivier Giroud has scored more in a single season when entering the fray as a sub (6).
We cannot talk about in-form attackers without mentioning Ollie Watkins. Villa’s number 11 is the joint leader in assists in the Premier League with 10 and second in the goalscoring charts with 18, one goal behind Erling Haaland.
He looks set to be Villa’s most prolific player in a Premier League campaign as he only needs two more goals to overtake Christian Benteke’s 19 in the 2012-13 season.
However, he’s facing one of the sternest defences in the league. Arsenal have already ended Manchester City’s 57-game scoring streak at the Etihad, Luton’s 18-game run of finding the back of the net and they have only conceded four goals across the last 11 matches.
It’s a genuine heavyweight clash at the Emirates but the hosts should have enough to remain in the driving seat for this breathtaking title race.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Aston Villa
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