GOLDEN GOALS MATCHDAY 34: TIMELY WINS FOR LIVERPOOL & ARSENAL

Are the cracks beginning to appear in the title race?

A seismic weekend saw Liverpool and Arsenal slip to surprise defeats at home to Crystal Palace and Aston Villa respectively and hand the initiative back to defending champions Manchester City.

Can the Gunners and the Reds bounce back and pile the pressure back on Pep Guardiola’s charges, who don’t play this weekend due to FA Cup duties?

At the bottom of the league, Burnley and Sheffield United, who meet each other this weekend, look destined for the drop but it’s a three-way battle between Luton, Nottingham Forest and Everton to avoid the third relegation spot.

The Hatters host Brentford in one of the biggest games of the weekend – can Rob Edwards galvanise his troops?

Remember, if you can pick the six correct scorelines you could win up to £2 million.

Luton vs Brentford

Form (all competitions) Luton: LWLLD Brentford: WDDDL

A crucial win for Luton against Bournemouth the previous weekend was a timely three points for the Hatters – their first win in 12 – but any confidence accrued from that crucial victory may have been short-lived with Manchester City wiping the floor with them 5-1 on Saturday.

Luton are struggling to keep teams out. They have conceded 70 this season – only Sheffield United (84) have conceded more goals. Meanwhile, you have to go back to January to find the last time they kept a clean sheet.

It's no surprise when you consider how many chances they concede to the opposition per game.

They play a Bees side unbeaten in four and a spring in their step, with some crucial points picked up against Manchester United and Aston Villa in that run.

Ivan Toney missed the previous game through illness but manager Thomas Frank is reportedly confident of having him back and ready. He could do with a goal; after bagging four in his first five games after returning from an eight-month suspension he has gone eight games without finding the net despite registering 15 shots on goal in his previous four starts.

Given Luton’s porous defence and propensity for high-scoring matches – their last five home games have spawned 3.4 goals per game – as well as Toney’s innate self-belief, it is entirely likely the dry run is broken this weekend.

Prediction: Luton 2-2 Brentford

Sheffield United vs Burnley

Form (all competitions) Sheffield United: LDLDD Burnley: DLDDW

For two of this season’s also-rans, three defeats in 10 between the two of them constitutes relatively good form.

But both are propping up the table and this feels like last-chance saloon. Three points could be enough to keep survival hopes burning – at least for Burnley. Defeat for the Clarets will likely confirm the end of their return to the big time. For the Blades, even a win is unlikely to shift the dial. They are playing for pride now.

One thing you can say about Chris Wilder’s charges, though, is that they love to entertain… in a way. In their last 10 matches involving the Blades, a mammoth 41 goals have been scored, though only 11 of those came from the boots of a Sheffield United player.

The Clarets, meanwhile, are finding goals hard to come by – not least because they are struggling to finish their chances. Just look at the shot map of joint top scorer Zeki Amdouni above.

Indeed, Burnley have the third-worst shots-on-target percentage of all the teams in the division, with just 31.3% of their attempts finding the target.

If they can get their shooting boots on, this could be a vital three points.

Prediction: Sheffield United 1-2 Burnley

Wolves vs Arsenal

Form (all competitions) Wolves: DLDLL_ Arsenal: LLDWW_

Wolves have been on a disappointing slide of late and are without a win in five but fans can justifiably point to a number of controversial VAR decisions, not least the last-minute equaliser chalked off against West Ham recently. Max Kilman’s header was ruled out, with a subjective offside ruling going against them.

According to ESPN that tracks the net score of VAR, Wolves are bottom of the table of teams to benefit, with a -4 score. That means they are four goals worse off after VAR decisions have gone for or against them.

It would be churlish to blame the referees, though. For instance, one area manager Gary O'Neil will want to improve is their lack of dominance in attacking areas. They rank fourth-lowest in the league for touches in the attacking third and third-lowest for touches in the attacking penalty area.

It’s difficult to see them improving against the Gunners. Arsenal rank second for both the same metrics and have been imperious at controlling games this season.

At least until this past week. Defeats to Aston Villa and Bayern Munich in the Champions League have rocked confidence in the Gunners camp. A strong performance here could get them back on track and back on top.

A special shout-out to the back line at Arsenal – they are the only team to have conceded fewer than 30 goals this season.

Given Arsenal’s desperate need for a win and Wolves’ recent spell of poor form, this one will end in a win-to-nil for the visitors.

Prediction: Wolves 0-2 Arsenal

Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

Form (all competitions) Aston Villa: LWWDL Bournemouth: DLWWW

After a mini-wobble, Aston Villa delivered a scintillating performance against one of the title challengers on their home turf on Sunday – in the words of one commentator, they “did a job” on Arsenal.

There was another goal for Ollie Watkins, who this week has been touted as one of the favourites for the PFA Player of the Year award. It’s no great surprise, either, given his season-long performances.

No player has more goal contributions than Watkins this term – he’s tied with Cole Palmer at the top of the Premier League tree with 29. But when you consider Palmer has scored eight penalties and Watkins’ goals are all non-penalty strikes, he seems like a decent shout for the prestigious prize.

He currently has 19 league goals (one behind Palmer and Erling Haaland) as well as nine assists (one behind Pascal Groß) and sits at 6/1 with BetMGM to finish with the Golden Boot and 7/1 to finish as the top assist-maker in the division.

Meanwhile, the Cherries can officially celebrate another season in the Premier League. Despite being one of the pre-season favourites for the drop, they have already managed more goals (47) and more points (42) than the entirety of last season (37 goals and 39 points).

They were dominant in the 2-2 draw against Manchester United on Saturday. In truth, they should have been out of sight before half-time; a lack of clinical edge that day does not reflect their general sharpness in front of goal this season.

Dominic Solanke’s xG (expected goals) rating is the third-highest in the division at 17.2 – behind only Haaland (23.6) and Mohamed Salah (18.3). It speaks to just how many high-quality chances the Cherries are creating this year.

The goal now will be to finish the season strongly but, with the top four on the line, we expect Aston Villa to have too much for Bournemouth. It won’t be a walk in the park though.

Prediction: Aston Villa 3-2 Bournemouth

Crystal Palace vs West Ham

Form (all competitions) Crystal Palace: WLLDD West Ham: DLLWD

Well, Sunday was a turn up for the books. The Eagles were never going to stay grounded for Liverpool but the way they swooped for three points at Anfield and potentially altered the path of this year’s title race was impressive.

The 21-pass move that led to Eberechi Eze's goal was a thing of beauty but there was also substance behind the style, with 21 blocked shots and five saves helping to keep the Reds at bay.

You can see just how dominant Liverpool were in our match momentum graphic below:

Crystal Palace have a good recent record against the Hammers – they have won two of their previous three games against them, scoring seven goals in the process.

Meanwhile, European football appears to be taking its toll on David Moyes’s men. They have won just one of their previous six league games and a disappointing home defeat to Fulham at the weekend was not well received by the East London faithful.

They are starting slowly in the league generally; no team has conceded the first goal more times than West Ham (10) in 2024, while they are now 13 games without a clean sheet in the league. The Eagles will build on last week and claim a second consecutive victory in this one.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 West Ham

Fulham vs Liverpool

Form (all competitions) Fulham: WDDLW Liverpool: WLLDW

One man is on the minds of every fan at Craven Cottage.

Rodrigo Muniz bagged the Player of the Month award for March to become only the third Fulham player in history to get that recognition. after Louis Saha and Mark Schwarzer.

Despite not getting on the scoresheet in last weekend’s win over West Ham, Muniz was once again impressive – an audacious backheel attempt the highlight of a performance from a man with confidence flowing through his veins.

Here’s how he compares with the misfiring Darwin Nunez of Liverpool:

While Nunez is finding plenty of goalscoring opportunities his wastefulness in front of goal, particularly recently, has been lambasted by Liverpool fans.

He will need to find his scoring boots soon if the Reds are to recover in their quest to give Jurgen Klopp a farewell title party.

The shock defeat to Crystal Palace was not in the script and they now need to make up the lost ground on Manchester City in a location they have some frustrating recent experiences with; the Reds have dropped four points on their previous two visits to Craven Cottage.

Despite recent form worries, Liverpool will find enough.

Prediction: Fulham 1-3 Liverpool

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