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GOLDEN GOALS MATCHDAY 36: VITAL POINTS FOR BURNLEY & NOTTINGHAM FOREST
And so Liverpool are out of it… or as good as. Two defeats in a row – one at home against Crystal Palace and the other away against arch-rivals Everton – means the Reds are all but also-rans in the Premier League title race.
Now it is Arsenal and Manchester City going head to head in a repeat of last season’s face-off. So far, the Citizens aren’t blinking. Indeed, they haven’t lost a Premier League game since the end of 2023. The Gunners, though, are showing some steel in the run-in. It’s edge-of-your-seat stuff.
At the bottom, Sheffield United are done for and soon so will two of Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Luton Town. It’s a mad dash for the final safety spot.
Nottingham Forest are in action against the Blades this weekend in what is a must-win for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.
That particular match is also one of our six Golden Goals Matchday 36 fixtures. Remember, if you can pick all six correct scorelines you could win up to £1 million.
Brentford vs Fulham
Form (all competitions) Brentford: LWWDD Fulham: DLWLL
Another day, another London Derby for Fulham.
Not that it should bother them – the Cottagers have lost just one of their last six London Derbies in the Premier League and are unbeaten in their last three.
Given the Bees are already safe, might we see Fulham extend their recent unbeaten run against fellow London clubs?
Marco Silva does have one of the in-form strikers in his ranks in Rodrigo Muniz, while the Bees are struggling to get their talisman Ivan Toney back to his stinging best.
There is an argument to be made that Muniz is the best striker in the Premier League at the moment. Only Cole Palmer and Phil Foden have more goals than the Brazilian since the start of February; he’s potent, he’s dangerous and he’s scoring goals.
Meanwhile, time is running out for Toney. He needs to prove himself ahead of the Euro 2024 England squad announcement this summer. But something isn’t right – he has failed to score a goal in 10 appearances and, despite injury and illness curtailing his progress at crucial points of the season, there are some real concerns around his general output. Can he prove the doubters wrong here?
It’s a bit of a dead rubber, generally speaking, but both teams will want to finish the season strongly to churn some momentum going into the next campaign. When in doubt, back the team with the in-form striker.
Prediction: Brentford 1-2 Fulham
Burnley vs Newcastle
Form (all competitions) Burnley: DWDLD Newcastle: WLWWD
Burnley are scrapping hard. A hard-fought point at Old Trafford last weekend means they are still within a shout of staying up this season. They are finding form at the right time with just one defeat in their previous eight games (W2, D5).
They will need to overturn the form books with the Magpies. In the previous five matches between the two, they have lost all five.
One of the reasons for the recent uptick in results could be the tightening up in defence. They have not conceded more than one goal in their previous five matches – the five before that conceded two goals per game on average.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are in the heat of the battle for a Europa League spot.
With three wins in four, Eddie Howe’s men have engineered a good chance of securing European football next season.
But this will be a tough test. So much so, in fact, that we are going with a score draw.
Prediction: Burnley 1-1 Newcastle
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest
Form (all competitions) Sheffield United: LLLLD_ Nottingham Forest: LLDLW_
Two of the most out-of-form teams in the division meet one another in a match that means a lot more to one team than the other.
The Blades are down after what has, frankly, been an awful season back in the big time. It’s their ninth relegation from the top flight, moving the club level with Sheffield Wednesday for the number of times to drop down from the top tier.
Only one team in the history of the Premier League has conceded more goals than Sheffield United’s 97 and that was Swindon Town, who let in 100 goals in the 1993-94 campaign. However, back then, the season was 42 games long.
The visitors also have a problem keeping the ball out of the net – especially at set pieces. No team has conceded more from corners and free-kicks this season (23). In the history of the Premier League only Fulham in 2013-14 (28), Tottenham in 2007-08 (26) and West Brom in 2010-11 (24) have conceded more through set pieces.
Despite the frailty at the back for both sides, the quality going forward is hardly in abundance either. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league for goals scored.
Fundamentally, however, there is just more on the line for the visitors than the hosts. We think they will sneak through.
Prediction: Sheffield United 0-1 Nottingham Forest
Brighton vs Aston Villa
Form (all competitions) Brighton: LLDLD Aston Villa: DWWWW
Cast your mind back to the end of last September and Aston Villa’s 6-1 thrashing of the Seagulls at Villa Park.
It was an eye-catching result for many reasons – primarily because many believed Brighton would build on last season; many had predicted them to finish ahead of the Midlands side.
In hindsight, this was the game that signified Aston Villa were bonafide top-four contenders and Brighton as perhaps slipping back into the mid-table cluster.
It is difficult to really understand the struggles under Roberto De Zerbi this season – but comparing the attacking output between the two sides provides some useful insight:
Brighton’s total xG last season (73.3) was bettered only by champions Manchester City (78.6). This season, they rank 13th with an xG of 54.96.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa are scoring goals for fun. Ollie Watkins is in the form of his life and the top four looks signed, sealed and delivered given Tottenham’s struggles.
The upshot of all this? An away win.
Prediction: Brighton 1-3 Aston Villa
Chelsea vs West Ham
Form (all competitions) Chelsea: WDLLW West Ham: DLDLL
Another London Derby this weekend sees Chelsea face West Ham in a fixture that has seen plenty of drama down the years.
Despite being reduced to ten men for a third of the reverse fixture back in August, the Hammers secured a damaging 3-1 victory over the Blues.
Jarrod Bowen is on the verge of breaking a long-standing record. He has 16 league goals to his name, which is level with club legend Paolo Di Canio. One more will make him the highest-scoring West Ham forward in any Premier League season.
The Blues, meanwhile, are trying to keep the dying embers of their season alive by chasing down a European spot.
They have already conceded a record number of goals in any Chelsea Premier League campaign and recent performances have not been good enough, with just two wins in five bringing their season to a spluttering conclusion.
The 5-0 humiliation at the hands of London rivals Arsenal might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Mauricio Pochettino at the Bridge.
However, we think home advantage will play a big part – it always does in local rivalry games, as evidenced by the Blues’ 2-0 win over Tottenham on Thursday. We are going with the same scoreline here as a consequence.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 West Ham
Liverpool vs Tottenham
Form (all competitions) Liverpool: DLWWL Tottenham: LLLWD
The Reds, as we said, are out of it. A late-season capitulation means a push for the quadruple has powdered into dust.
It’s hard to place a finger on exactly what went wrong for Liverpool. They are thrilling to watch, play a heavy metal brand of football brimming with intense pressing and sprinting, and have some of the most exciting players in the game on their books.
However, perhaps it’s that blood-pumping, chest-beating approach that has been their undoing. Take a look at the total shots player metric below – not one but two Liverpool players lead the league.
Darwin Nunez, especially, sums up the freneticism that seems to have enveloped the Reds. Despite averaging more than four shots a game this year, he bags just 0.48 goals per 90 minutes.
The clash against Tottenham could provide lots of entertainment. Earlier in the season, we saw a wrongly ruled-out goal because of dodgy VAR lines, two red cards, and a last-minute winner for Ange Postecoglou’s charges.
Indeed, in the previous five meetings between these two, there have been 19 goals, with both teams scoring in each of them.
This one will be a goal-fest despite both sides’ poor form. Score draw.
Prediction: Liverpool 3-3 Tottenham
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