Golden Goals: Matchday 3 Preview
The second week of this Premier League season was all about one thing: discipline.
With five red cards issued across five separate games on matchday two, the tally already stands at six for the campaign. It took until matchday nine, in late October, for that many to be issued last season.
Are the new refereeing guidelines beginning to bite?
There were, of course, some significant results too. West Ham and Brighton were the pick of the weekend's performers, beating Chelsea 3-1 and Wolves 4-1 respectively while Manchester City edged past Newcastle in a cagey, Erling Haaland-suppressed performance.
Elsewhere, Arsenal maintained their 100% start to the campaign and Liverpool, Brentford, Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest also bagged three points.
With Luton Town vs Burnley postponed due to the condition of the Hatters' stadium, it meant no fixture ended in a share of the spoils last weekend.
Will you be steering clear of draws in Golden Goals Matchday 3?
Remember: every weekend BetMGM UK offers you the chance to win up to £1 million by predicting six correct scores with Golden Goals, our free-to-play football predictor game. Read more about Golden Goals here.
Each week, we will look closer into the matches chosen for Golden Goals on our blog. Don’t forget to visit regularly for an abundance of valuable statistics, insight and of course our score predictions for all six games.
Last week, we got four correct results but no correct scores.
On to matchday three…
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Form (including pre-season)
Brentford: WDDDL
Crystal Palace: LWWLL
No Ivan Toney, no problem. The Bees have bagged five goals in two games this season, the joint-second most in the league.
That's not all – they're actually marginally underperforming in the xG stakes, which have them hitting 5.9. Only Brighton are ahead of them in this metric after the opening two matches.
In Toney's absence, Bryan Mbuemo is stepping up to the plate in lethal fashion. The Cameroon international has hit the net three times from four shots on goal. A word, too, for his team-mate Yoane Wissa, who has had his own persistence rewarded with a goal in each match while averaging 6.04 shots per 90 (the second-highest ratio in the league to date).
For Palace, a disappointing 1-0 home defeat against Arsenal on Monday followed a solid opening-day win over Sheffield United. If you were predicting a mid-table finish for Roy Hodgson's charges, this sequence of results will help you feel some early-season justification.
The Eagles have just one goal from the two games – but it's not for a lack of trying. They are tied for third in shots taken, averaging exactly 19 per game to sit level with Liverpool and behind only Brighton and Wolves. Accuracy and shooting from better areas will be on the training schedule at Copers Cope Road.
So far these teams have never been separated in the Premier League, with each of the previous four clashes ending in a draw. Who are we to predict a break in that trend?
Prediction: Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace
Arsenal vs Fulham
Form (including pre-season)
Arsenal: WWDDW
Fulham: LWWLL
It’s not been particularly pretty from the Gunners as yet, but they are getting the job done regardless with two wins from two.
There could be some early concern, though, in their lack of creativity in front of goal across their opening two games. They currently rank 15th for npxG (non-penalty expected goals) with 2.0, 10th for total shots on goal with 28, and fifth-highest in average shot distance at 17.8 yards, suggesting there is likely a little too much pot-shotting going on for Mikel Arteta's liking.
In Fulham, they face a club on the edge of some unhappier times after the halcyon days of last season. The Cottagers have lost striker Aleksandar Mitrovic to Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal and were fortunate to escape from a game against perpetually-turmoiled Everton with three points on the opening day of the season.
Marco Silva’s men also top the rankings for the xGA (expected goals against) metric with a wince-worthy 3.22 while only four of the 19 shots they have taken so far have hit the target.
Add in the fact that captain Tim Ream will miss this game through suspension after his red card against Brentford and envisioning how they can emerge with a positive result at the Emirates is difficult.
Prediction: Arsenal 4-0 Fulham
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
Form (including pre-season)
Manchester United: LWDWL
Nottingham Forest: WLDLL
It has been a turbulent week for the Red Devils on and off the pitch. The season is spluttering at the start, much like it did last term, and it looks like Erik ten Hag has another mammoth job on his hands to coax any sort of title challenge out of his men.
The underlying stats don't look too damaging though. Small sample size though it may be, United have an xG of 4.3, level with Liverpool and ahead of Chelsea (3.8), Arsenal, Manchester City (2.9) and Newcastle (3.6). They rank fourth in shot-creating actions into the bargain.
All of the above point to the Rasmus Højlund-sized elephant in the room: United are desperately missing a focal point in attack. Marcus Rashford was excellent last season but he concedes his best position is running the channels from the left and he still needs to prove his scoring form last term was not a one-off. The return to fitness of summer signing Hojlund is crucial – and there are whispers he could feature in this one.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest are showing signs of building on last year. They were unfortunate not to nab a draw from Arsenal on the campaign's opening day and bagged their first three points of the season against Sheffield United.
They are working hard in defence with 27 tackles in the defensive third – the second-highest in the division with only Wolves managing more to date.
These two met four times in the 2022/23 campaign – twice in the league and twice in the League Cup. The aggregate score was Manchester United 10-0 Nottingham Forest. Despite their early troubles, we are anticipating a comfortable home victory here.
Prediction: Manchester United 3-0 Nottingham Forest
Everton vs Wolves
Form (including pre-season)
Everton: LLWWD
Wolves: LLWDD
If two early-season crisis horns sounded the alarm, passers-by in Liverpool and the Midlands would get an earful.
Both of these teams lost their opening two matches and, for varying reasons, both look set for a nail-gnawing campaign.
Despite having the entire summer to prepare, the Toffees must find a fit and proper striker once again. A facial injury to Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the chastening 4-0 defeat to Aston Villa has ruled him out for a few weeks, while the complete lack of potency from Neal Maupay since he signed from Brighton means the Toffees remain profligate in front of goal.
They have recently spent £15 million to sign 19-year-old striker Youssef Chermiti from Sporting CP – if he is to make his debut against Wolves he will be thrown into the deep end.
The early stats back it up, too. Despite 28 shots on goal – 11 of which were on target – and an xG of 3.3 they have still not found the net this season.
Wastefulness is arguably just as big a problem for their opposition. After peppering Manchester United and Brighton with shots (39 in total) Wolves could only convert one of their 11 on target.
After a promising performance in the opener, a crushing loss to the Seagulls has banished any positivity from Molineux. New head coach Gary O'Neil knows how to organise a team, but the summer departure of former Real Madrid and Spain manager Julen Lopetegui looks to have taken the air out of the Midlands club before the season even started.
A tough one to call, this one, but we will predict a narrow home win.
Prediction: Everton 2-1 Wolves
Sheffield United vs Manchester City
Form (including pre-season)
Sheffield United: LLLWL
Manchester City: WWWLL
The Blades are, so far, being blunted. The odds of them going down are sharpening though – it’s 21/50 with BetMGM UK at the time of writing. Facing treble-winning Manchester City next means those odds are likelier to shorten, not lengthen, come Monday.
Of the 18 teams that have played two games they are bottom of the xG table with a ranking of just 1.0, have taken the fewest shots on goal (15) and have the second-worst xT (expected threat, which measures the effectiveness of a team’s ball progression).
It isn't easy to see their fortunes changing here.
Manchester City will be without Pep Guardiola on the touchline – the Spaniard has had an emergency back operation back in Barcelona and is unavailable for two games.
Despite his absence Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez and Jack Grealish will be licking their lips at the goals potentially on offer against the Blades. The former may feel extra ravenous after only two goals in his last five league appearances, both of which came in the season opener on August 11.
We think Haaland will be back with a bang and the champions should waltz this.
Prediction: Sheffield United 0-5 Manchester City
Newcastle vs Liverpool
Form (including pre-season)
Newcastle: LWWWW
Liverpool: WDWLW
The undoubted mouth-watering game of the weekend sees Eddie Howe’s new-look Newcastle face Jurgen Klopp’s unpredictable Liverpool.
Vengeance will surely be on the mind of home fans, who have not enjoyed facing the Reds in recent times – Newcastle have lost their last five Premier League games against Liverpool.
Although they were dominant in a 5-1 win over Aston Villa in the opener, Howe's men are quite selective when it comes to shooting and rank just 15th for total shots taken to date with 24. They’re precise, though, with 13 of them hitting the target for a league-leading 54.2% accuracy.
Klopp, meanwhile, was particularly unhappy about the red card Alexis Mac Allister picked up during Liverpool’s win over Bournemouth on matchday two. He will feel justified in his annoyance after the dismissal was overturned on appeal. It means the World Cup-winning Argentine is available for selection against the Magpies.
The Reds are looking sharp going forward but are giving up chances at the other end – they have conceded 23 shots in their opening two games. They have not exactly been throwing their bodies on the line to protect the goal; they are bottom of the league across the opening matches for shots blocked, registering just two across both games.
This one, we feel, could be a high-scoring draw.
Prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool
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