Dark Horses For The FIFA World Cup 2026
The best outside bet for World Cup 2026 might be on who wins the whole thing – could an underdog actually lift world football’s most famous trophy?
In 2026, it’s eminently possible that an against-the-odds nation wins the World Cup at the MetLife Stadium on 19 July.
The reason? This World Cup will be like nothing we’ve seen before. If you like to bet on football then get ready for an unpredictable tournament with 48 teams and an eye-watering 104 games.
Granted, the big boys are already dominating the World Cup winner odds – but they’re not guaranteed to even make the quarter-finals.
If ever there’s to be a shock, it’s in 2026. Below are eight World Cup dark horses we reckon stand a chance in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
Check out each team’s BetMGM UK World Cup odds and remember to trigger a welcome offer!
Ecuador - Odds: 100/1
Ecuador qualified for the World Cup with games to spare in CONMEBOL's qualification campaign, rivalling the likes of Brazil and Uruguay for second place behind Argentina. They were even docked three points for an administrative error in a previous qualifying campaign.
Manager Sebastian Beccacece has a developing squad to play with, captained by veteran Enner Valencia. Defensively they are solid and have proven hard to break down since Beccacece’s arrival. There's also excitement in the Ecuador camp, with playmakers like Kendry Paez, Moises Caicedo and Alan Minda catching the eye.
Ecuador are a World Cup dark horse at 200/1 to lift the Trophy. The BetMGM UK odds could change, however, if they get off to a good start in the group stage, where they face Ivory Coast, Curacao and Germany.
Morocco - Odds: 80/1
Morocco reached the World Cup semi-finals in 2022 and became everyone's favourite dark horses during the tournament. No African side has ever gone that far at a World Cup – and the odds of Morocco going further in America, Canada and Mexico sit at 80/1.
Could Morocco win the World Cup? It's not totally out of the question. Their qualifying campaign has been a breeze, allowing them to focus on the 2025 African Cup of Nations. That takes place between December and January in Morocco, and serves as the perfect pre-World Cup warm-up.
It could be argued that Morocco have a straightforward group that they could top, avoiding a tricky last-32 match. Brazil and Scotland would disagree with this though.
Much of the squad, which includes Achraf Hakimi, Sofyan Amrabat, Azzedine Ounahi and Youssef En-Nesyri, is at a peak age heading into the World Cup. Keep an eye on Morocco's odds.
Norway - Odds: 28/1
Any team with Erling Haaland in the starting XI stands a chance of winning a football match. Whether Haaland can fire Norway out of their group and win five knockout games to lift the World Cup is the big question. Norway are back on the world stage for the first time since 1998 and they're big underdogs to win the whole thing.
In reality, it's probably not going to happen. However, the likes of Haaland, Martin Ødegaard and Alexander Sorloth providing experience – plus Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb breaking through – Norway have a strong core.
They beat Italy 3-0 in their qualifying campaign and have been promoted to the League A in the Nations League. Norway could be the best outside bet for World Cup punters.
Japan - Odds: 100/1
Japan sauntered through World Cup qualifying and are now preparing to compete in their eighth straight major finals. However, the squad has some work to do after losing to Iran in the 2023 Asian Cup quarter-finals. Boss Hajime Moriyasu used the 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship campaign to blood young players, which means there's plenty of competition for squad places right now.
Captain Wataru Endo hasn't made a huge impact at Liverpool but he's a steady presence for his country. Takumi Minamino, Junya Ito and Hidemasa Morita provide further experience, while midfielder Ao Tanaka could star in America, Canada and Mexico.
With such a rich choice of players, Moriyasu might actually struggle to find his best XI. However, if everything clicks for Japan then they're a good outside bet to make the semi-finals. As for the trophy, they're 100/1 to lift that.
Mexico - Odds: 80/1
Mexico will host the World Cup for the third time in 2026, with three stadiums in use. Mexico will play all three of their group games at 'home' grounds, so have a strong chance of reaching the knockouts. As hosts they didn't need to play through qualification to reach the tournament, but have maintained their standards in the run-up to the World Cup.
Mexico won the 2023 and 2025 Gold Cups, notably beating USA 2-1 in the 2025 final in Houston. Their squad is highly experienced, with Edson Alvarez, Jesus Gallardo, Orbelín Pineda and Raul Jimenez each boasting 80+ caps. Add the likes of Hirving Lozano and the young Stephano Carrillo into the mix, and Mexico are an exciting prospect.
Mexico were once a sure-fire bet to reach the last-16 at World Cups. They escaped their group in every tournament between 1994 and 2018, only to fall at the group stage in 2022. This time, they're an 80/1 outsider to win the whole thing. Considering they're hosts, this makes them one of the best outside bets for World Cup punters to consider.
Senegal - Odds: 100/1
Morocco aren't the only African side with potential to win the World Cup in 2026. Senegal endured a tiresome, competitive qualification campaign but are definitely considered World Cup dark horses for the tournament itself.
Their squad is choked with talent: Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye, Ismaila Sarr, Idrissa Gueye, Kalidou Koulibaly and Edouard Mendy are just some of the standout names who have shone in European club football in recent years.
Senegal famously beat England in the summer of 2025, outplaying the Three Lions at the City Ground. They look primed to reach the knockout stages and have enough experience within the spine of the team to handle higher-ranked opponents. Senegal may be 100/1 to win the World Cup but look in a better position to do so than similar dark horses.
Uruguay - Odds: 50/1
Uruguay are a great price at 40/1 to win the World Cup. Luis Suarez may have retired from the national team but there's plenty of quality in the ranks. Liverpool's Darwin Nunez, Real Madrid's Federico Valverde, Barcelona's Ronald Araújo, and Jose Maria of Atletico form the core of this team.
Of course, you can't ignore manager Marcelo Bielsa when betting on Uruguay. The head coach has revitalised the squad and injected youth and pace. Bielsa demands 100% commitment and sets high physical standards, which is one of the reasons 37-year-old Suarez was overlooked for selection.
Uruguay's average squad age is around 26 – the perfect age for a physical, heat-intensive World Cup. Quality, dedication, and high-tempo football will make Uruguay a watchable team in 2026. Their 50/1 World Cup winner odds will collapse if they start the group stage well.
Denmark - Odds: 120/1
Denmark endured a miserable 2022 World Cup, where they fell in the group stage without a win. It was a surprising result after their run to the Euro 2020 semi-finals, and they also crashed at the last-16 stage of Euro 2024.
Yet the Danes have been steadily progressing in recent months. They've held their own in the Nations League and are now one of Europe's higher-ranked sides. Their squad is full of talent from Europe's top five leagues, including Napoli's Rasmus Højlund, Kasper Dolberg of Ajax, Wolfsburg's Joakim Maehle, and Sporting's Morten Hjulmand.
There are also exciting players like Victor Froholdt and Patrick Dorgu coming through. Denmark may have hit a ceiling but we'll have to see how they fare in North America. At 120/1 they're a steady outside bet to win the tournament should they make it through the play-offs.
Other Dark Horses World Cup Bets
Of course, betting on dark horses for the World Cup doesn’t just mean backing an outsider to win the whole thing. With 48 teams competing over 104 games, there’s going to be a few upsets and surprises.
Below are three World Cup betting markets where dark horses could flourish, which don’t require your pick to lift the trophy.
World Cup Top Goalscorer Betting
The World Cup top goalscorer doesn’t always win the actual trophy. In fact, usually the top scorer goes to a player whose team has fallen at the quarter-final or semi-final stage.
With so many games taking place at the 2026 World Cup, we’re likely to see big competition for the Golden Boot. A good outside bet is to back star players for dark-horse teams that should progress to the quarters at least.
So, look for the likes of Omar Marmoush of Egypt, Mexico's Raul Jimenez, Amad Diallo of Ivory Coast, or Portugal's Goncalo Ramos. Read through our World Cup top goalscorer contenders for more options.
World Cup Best Player Odds
The World Cup Best Player award often goes to whoever steers their team to the trophy. In 2022 it was Lionel Messi, which makes sense. In 2018 it was Luka Modric, who was the standout player in Russia despite Croatia losing the final to France.
In 2026, we could witness another star player from an underdog team winning the Player of the Tournament award.
The likes of Darwin Nunez, Erling Haaland and Nicolas Jackson fall into this category. Keep an eye on the best player odds, as dark horses will be in the mix.
World Cup Most Assists Betting
Betting on assists at the World Cup is a great place to unearth underdogs. Look for players who take free-kicks and corners, and who regularly pick a pass to the danger man during open play. The likes of Denmark’s Christian Eriksen, England’s Bukayo Saka, and Kevin De Bruyne of Belgium could all be in the mix, here.
