Can Scotland do the Unthinkable? Route To World Cup Victory
For 28 long years the Tartan Army treated the World Cup much like a glamorous summer garden party to which they simply forgot to RSVP.
While other nations regularly packed their bags for trips to the global showpiece in locations like Japan, Germany, South Africa and Qatar, Scotland fans were left with just VHS tapes of France 1998 for company.
Yet under the steady stewardship of Steve Clarke that long, long exile is officially over.
Scotland are crossing the Atlantic for the expanded 48-team tournament in North America nursing quiet hopes that Andy Robertson, John McGinn, Scott McTominay and co. might make a bit of national history Stateside.
Of course, actual historical precedent suggests Scotland’s trip to international football’s main event will be marked by extreme brevity; the national side has reached eight previous World Cups and exited at the group stage on all eight occasions.
But could this one be different? Backed by the momentum of a qualifying campaign that culminated in a legendary 4-2 triumph over Denmark at a bouncing Hampden in the November qualification decider, Clarke has built a club-like national squad which rarely sees any dropouts and features several genuine top-class operators.
The odds for Scotland winning the World Cup sit at an astronomical 250/1, meaning nobody is expecting miracles. Yet, as any punter knows, the magic of international football lies in the underdog. What if?
Who is in Scotland’s World Cup group?
The lottery of the tournament draw has served up a severe case of World Cup deja vu on the Scottish national psyche.
Clarke and his men have been placed into Group C alongside five-time winners Brazil, 2022 semi-finalists Morocco and Caribbean minnows Haiti.
For Tartan Army members of a certain vintage the mind will immediately be cast back to France in 1998 – the last time they even graced this stage – where they were dropped into a group that famously featured both Brazil and Morocco, suffering a 2-1 defeat to the Selecao before a 3-0 loss to the Moroccans brutally slammed the door on any lingering knockout ambitions.
Unsurprisingly, the traders have looked at the sheer depth of talent in the ranks of Brazil and Morocco in particular and positioned Scotland as third favourites to win the group at odds of 12/1.
A less-glamorous-than-usual, yet still star-studded, Brazil side sit at a pretty restrictive 1/6 to top the section.
Of course while topping the pile remains a massive ask, the shift to the expanded 48-team format means finishing as one of the best third-placed sides can still carve out a path to the knockouts and break that Scotland World Cup curse.
Successfully navigating the opening match is paramount. Starting on Saturday 13th June against Haiti in Foxborough, taking maximum points there is an absolute necessity for Clarke’s charges.
Round of 32
Scotland's final Group C placing dictates their knockout path fate, with the cross-border maths offering three distinct routes.
The dream scenario, also the most unlikely, is that of group winners. If Scotland pull off a monumental surprise to top Group C, they would earn a theoretically kinder assignment against the runners-up of Group F. Most likely this would be Japan, Sweden or Tunisia.
A more realistic path is that they grab second place with a win over Haiti and a point against either Morocco or Brazil. Securing the runner-up spot sets up a massive clash against the winners of Group F in Monterrey which, on paper, would mean a date with a formidable Netherlands side. James McFadden available, anyone?
Squeezing through as a best third-placed side means almost guaranteed immediate peril, given it maps out a direct collision course in Boston or New York with an elite group winner such as France. Again, is James McFadden available?
Round of 16
If the logic of the draw holds out and Scotland smash through their initial knockouts hurdle, the last 16 is where things get really serious.
The bracket projections indicate a high probability that this route intersects with a top-notch European power here. Specifically, that navigating past the last 32 opens up a heavy-duty tie with either Spain or Belgium in Houston or New York/New Jersey.
Facing either nation represents a monumental tactical exam for Clarke – but it is precisely the kind of premium fixture the Tartan Army will relish and McTominay in particular has previous in vanquishing the Spanish.
Quarter-finals
Should the dream extend into the last eight, the bracket points toward what would be a truly blockbuster encounter in Boston or Miami.
If the tournament follows its natural seeding, Scotland’s projected quarter-final opponent would be either Portugal or… England.
Facing down the Auld Enemy or the elite, Cristiano Ronaldo-backed flair of Portugal at this point would leave Clarke's side a mere 90 minutes from the unthinkable.
Semi-finals
Out of the frying pan and into the fire springs to mind because, should the impossible occur, the last four promises an elite South American exam in Dallas or Atlanta with either a group-stage rematch against Brazil or a meeting with the defending champions: Lionel Messi’s Argentina.
Final
The identity of Scotland's final opponent depends heavily on their group placement, which essentially splits the knockout bracket in two.
The two finalists compete for the famous old trophy at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Could one of those be Scotland? The odds say no… but the Tartan Army will be coming down the road regardless.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.
