Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips: Norris value to bounce back in Italy
Oscar Piastri was slashed to 1/4 favourite to win the 2025 F1 World Championship after his success in the Dutch Grand Prix last week, when the mechanical breakdown suffered by his team-mate and closest challenger Lando Norris was a huge blow for the British driver.
Norris had been just 1.5 seconds behind the Australian in second place when he was forced to retire on lap 53 of the 72-lap race and conceding 25 points to his colleague, rather than the seven that had looked likely, leaves him 34 points behind in the title race.
That means Norris could win the next five races with Piastri in second place and the Australian would still be only one point behind in the championship, and Norris may now have to hope that the leader's car suffers a similar fate in at least one of the final nine rounds.
Putting much distance, let alone any rival cars, between the McLaren cars is getting more difficult all the time and Norris's retirement at Zandvoort denied the team a fifth successive one-two finish.
There was a new name on the podium in the Netherlands, with Isack Hadjar of the Racing Bulls team inheriting third place when Norris dropped out, and the close battle for the lower points positions should again provide plenty of entertainment at a track where McLaren have won only one of the last 12 races, thanks to Daniel Ricciardo's surprise success in 2021, when Norris was a frustrated second.
Charles Leclerc gave Ferrari victory in their home race last season but he and team-mate Lewis Hamilton are now looking for a better performance after their double retirement in the Netherlands.
Tip 1 – Lando Norris to win the race @ 6/4
Lando Norris has lost plenty of points this season for reasons that were of his own making - mistakes under pressure and poor qualifying in particular - but it was a cruel dose of bad luck that handed him a major title setback at Zandvoort and he could easily bounce back with a win in Italy.
The British star had done little wrong all weekend in the Netherlands, looking the pick of the grid throughout the practice sessions and then being pipped by just 0.012 seconds in qualifying. A maverick move by Max Verstappen at the start dropped him to third place but he regained that position with a fantastic overtake on the outside and set about closing the gap to Piastri.
Norris has gone well at the track before, winning there in his Formula 3 days, scoring a point on his first F1 visit in 2019 and coming fourth the following season in his joint second-best result of that campaign.
In 2021, he was second to Ricciardo in McLaren's first one-two finish for more than a decade and he took pole there last season, only to be surprised by an opportunistic early move from Piastri and having to settle for third.
Piastri knows he now has to merely grind out top-two finishes to be champion, which he should be capable of in this car, but with no need for such gung-ho tactics this season, he can leave the risk-taking to Norris.
The British driver may also receive a slight power boost from the replacement engine in his car which can only help along the long straight at Monza.
Tip 2 – Andrea Kimi Antonelli top 6 finish (1-6) @ Evens
Andrea Kimi Antonelli certainly made an impression on Italian F1 fans in his debut for Mercedes in last season's first practice at Monza. The teenager was in the process of setting a blistering time when he suffered a spectacular high-speed crash.
Further errors have blighted his rookie season with the team but he has shown up well at high-speed circuits and should at least be capable of a top-six finish this weekend.
Antonelli is seventh in the championship but has not finished higher than 10th in five races since taking his first podium finish in Canada. That Montreal performance came on another track with long straights and the fearless youngster could show up well in his home race.
Tip 3 – Max Verstappen to record the fastest lap - 8/1
World champion Max Verstappen inherited his first top-two finish for five races when Norris pulled off the track in Zandvoort and the Red Bull works better at high-speed circuits than in medium-speed corners, where it has a clear deficit to McLaren.
That's not as much of a problem at Monza, where Verstappen won in 2022 and 2023, and he could be a candidate to record the fastest lap on Sunday.
Verstappen's two wins this season came on the fast circuits at Suzuka and Imola, with the second race also seeing him land his only fastest lap award so far in the campaign.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation